What are the odds of steem ever getting to $5000?

in #steem5 years ago (edited)

View this answer on Musing.io

Currently the total supply of Steem is 325 million. There are that many coins in existence at this moment. If you multiply that with a value of 5000 dollar per coin the total market cap would be: 1.625.000.000.000 dollar which equals to 1625 billion dollar or you could also read it as 1,625 trillion dollar. 

Then you also have to take into account that with Steem the total supply is not fixed. It's not like Bitcoin that there can be mined only a limited amount of coins. So the total supply keeps growing all the time. Which would make the number even bigger over time.

To take this into perspective, there is in the whole world about 80 trillion dollar of money, including non usd currencies. The United States has about 22 trillion dollars of debt (private + government debts). The company Apple recently hit a market cap of 1 trillion dollar, which made it the first US stock to ever become that big. 

So for Steem to become worth 5000 dollar per token, it would have to become bigger than the company Apple, which has been around for 4 decades.

Personally i don't see this happen. It would be very difficult to calculate the exact odds since there are so many variables to take into account. (Randomness is our inability to calculate very difficult variables.) But if i had to guess i would say you are more likely to die in a car accident than that happening. 

Can it hit 10 dollar per token? Yes, it probably will when the bull market goes again in full FOMO mode. We could even beat that number.

There are also some other things you would have to take into account: 

The market cap only matters for valuing something because the price is only based on the current trading volume. Coins that are not traded don't influence the price. (It's like capital that is sleeping.) The current price of Steem is decided by how much buyers and sellers are currently willing to give for it. But let's say there is almost no trading volume, then it becomes very easy to manipulate the price for a single market participant. (That's why small market cap coins are often pump and dumped.)

Also, some part of the Steem is lost forever because people don't have the passwords anymore to their wallets. And when you stake into Steem power it takes a lot of time before you can cashout all your Steem because it get's locked up for a certain amount of time. You can only power down 1/13th of all your Steem power per week. It would take about 13 weeks before you can cashout everything. so not everyone can dump their coins in once on the market. (It sucks to be a HODLER)

It's one of the reasons why i don't have much Steem power. I rather trade it on exchanges, it's more lucrative. And i like to ride the waves instead of being a permabull investor because crypto is so sentimental in nature. The market is mostly influenced by investors sentiment than the fundamentals. They only matter on long term, short term it's just FOMO and FUD that dictate the market.



Sort:  

You can only power down 1/13th of all your Steem power per week. It would take about 2 years before you can cash out everything.

This is incorrect. It takes 13 weeks to power down all your steempower.

For the passive investor, Steempower can be a nice addition to a portfolio. Invested wisely you can look at about 15-20% return on STEEM yearly.

For the active trader, staking is, of course, a no go, whichever coin it would be.

I consider $5k STEEM highly unlikely. $5 is realistic. We have been there before, so we know it's possible.

Can you see STEEM at $5 in the coming months?

Yes you are right, i already edited the post but you was probably still reading the old version. I was confused by some old articles. Thought it was 1/13th and they recalculated it every week.

That's a lot better than 2 years but it's still long. Declines usually don't last long but they go fast and aggressive. Bull markets are usually slower but they take longer. 80% of the time we go up, 20% of the time we go down.

$5000 no, $500 not likely, $50 probable, $5 definitely.

Doesn't power down takes 12 weeks now?

Posted using Partiko Android

You are right, it takes 13 weeks to be exact. I did some googling first but they where all old articles. That's why i was confused. (Going to edit the post.)

You can power down 1/13th of your steem per week so it would take 13 weeks. I was kind of confused because it's every week 1/13th of the steem power you had first. If they would recalculate that 1/13th every week it would take probably 2 years. Because you would power down less and less, but that's not the case.

My bad.

Dear @niel96

Can it hit 10 dollar per token? Yes, it probably will when the bull market goes again in full FOMO mode. We could even beat that number.

If we would ever hit 10$ per token, then we will also witness death of Steemit.com. Would you ever spent 500$ just to buy 50SP to be able to use this platform? Even if STEEM will reach 2-3$ then I can forse huge problem with lack of new users, not willing to spent that much money just to "try what Steemit is about"

Have a great weekend,
Piotr

That's a good point. They would probably have to lower the resource credit requirements by doing a hard fork.

Dear @niel96

I believe by the time Steemit Inc would decide to change their RC algorithm - damage will already be done and this platform will turn away thousands of potential users.

If price of Steem will increase then this platform will start dying :(

But on the other hand, you have to spend money to make money.
Why do people want it free?

This post has received a 9.68 % upvote from @boomerang.

I don't believe that any other coin or altcoin can reach the price of bitcoin not even the half of that price.
Bitcoin is the financial core of all coins / altcoins. You can buy every coin you want with bitcoins and that is what making this coin stable and i don't mean stable in price but as functionality. Because of this influence it can survive all price drops.

My opinion for Steem/SBD
I am new to this community and to this coin but my opinion is that i believe because of the current blockchain technology that Steem has and how it is operating with payments ( fast clock time, flexible payments etc ) it can be used to a lot of applications. i know that this new apps are not too good at this point ( DTube is not like Youtube, BuzzBreak is not like Google News etc ) but can be great in time. Steem blockchain can be use in AAA games too and open a lot of new ways to gaming. ( maybe SteemMonsters is not a great example but you get the point ).
i Believe that $5 is a great but it is hard to get more than that.

Congratulations @niel96! You have completed the following achievement on the Steem blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :

You made more than 5000 upvotes. Your next target is to reach 6000 upvotes.

You can view your badges on your Steem Board and compare to others on the Steem Ranking
If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word STOP

To support your work, I also upvoted your post!

You can upvote this notification to help all Steem users. Learn how here!

Coin Marketplace

STEEM 0.29
TRX 0.12
JST 0.035
BTC 65402.71
ETH 3383.32
USDT 1.00
SBD 4.60