Looking back from tomorrow: Flatter earnings, more earners

When people think about their earning here for the most part, they think about it being very difficult and hard to get the ball rolling but, once going, there is the feel that it will always be turning. There are quite a few who get a decent amount of support who are here who are in near constant cycles of powerdowns and they seem to be under the impression that the future will bring more of the same. Easy value to extract.

What I see happening in the future is not going to really support that though and the further we go and the wider the base gets, the less importance track record will have. Slowly, the first users in will have their power lessened through distribution and those they support will have the flow restricted until it possibly dries up completely.

We have seen this happen as previously highly supported accounts lost their autovoters as they started delegating to bidbots and those who hadn't powered up adequate VP, struggled. Those that made it rain turned off the tap and they hadn't filled any buckets.

As onboarding continues and Steem gets distributed more widely but less depth is gathering in single accounts, more accounts will get supported but at much lower values than today. There will be lower peaks and the peaks will be much further apart on the distribution. However, there will actually be a great deal of value held on the platform and those with high talent and appeal will earn extremely well as they attract swarms of small voters.

As this starts to happen, those with no Steem stored are going to find themselves in the same boat as every other new user as the memory of who they were fades from the collective memory of the platform. Sure, the blockchain doesn't forget but, the irrelevancy of what the did in the past will grow with each day.

It is going to be a struggle for many to remain relevant in an ecosystem that will change rapidly and broadly, especially as content shifts into areas that are outside of the wheelhouse. For those with stored capital, they are still able to not only earn, but drive the changes as supporters of the new users, the influencers of content. It will be the ones with stake who will push this platform into the future and the more distributed the stake is, the larger the base it will support but, the lower the individual levels will likely be.

Most users here now have the potential (not right) t be a part of that world of curation and change yet, most will miss out. It is likely that it will only be in life's mirror that the sun that could have been will be seen. Many are going to struggle in the rain.

At some point, my content will dry up, my relevancy be gone and I will shift from creator /supporter to just supporter of the next waves in. I will be a tiny venture capitalist looking for people of quality content and character to support. Those that are extracting now thinking their easy life will always be on an autovoted tap, are going to be in for a rough ride. As not only will many be unprepared for their future, they will see it happening and know with certainty, it was their own actions of the past that led them to that point.

So, my prediction for the future is that there will be a much lower and flatter earning structure but with many more people covered. The small amounts people earn now might seem large and it will be a mass of what would be regarded today as micro transactions that will provide additional revenue streams and, really push the limits of the blockchain transaction speeds and reach.

I might be wrong but, public opinion swings wildly and always favors the new over the past. Those resting on the laurels and not actively improving, engaging and contributing will find themselves out in the rain, with very little chance to drink more than a drop at a time.

3 am thoughts.

Taraz
[ a Steemit original ]