What needs to happen to reach $10 STEEM in 2018? (Discussion)
I think 2018 can be the year of $10 STEEM. It is not going to just magically get there on it's own though. As stakeholders, we have a responsibility to take an active role in improving the value of the token. I am interested in hearing people's thoughts on what needs to happen to get us there.
Keep in mind that while Steemit, Inc. is one of the major stakeholders, they are not the only stakeholder. Ideas on what Steemit can do are OK, but I do not accept the idea that we are 100% dependent on them to get us there. I am really most interested in hearing ideas on what we as community stakeholders can to do increase the value of the token.
Please respond in the comments below:
I remain fundamentally in the camp that the number of active users determine the value of the currency. The model I follow is the Mayer Multiple in which social media in general have their value quadruple when the number of active users double.
How to grow the user base?
Technology
Rocks Db to shrink RPC node requirements.
Velocity to speed up the signup process.
Make account creation super simple and have a tool that makes it simple for websites to include it.
Community
For people to come here there has to be community. Folks that come and don't find a home leave. We need to support community. This has technology aspects of SMTs and Communities, but also has to do with whales investing their Steem Power in growing communities that benefit the ecosystem.
Opportunity -
I'm not anti-bid bot. It's better now than when the deals were all behind closed doors and no one could access them. That said, it would be better if whales would sponser curation initiatives. We have tools that make having centrally organized accounts to resteem and vote content much easier. It would be swell if whales would organize communities and sponser their growth by putting as little as 20k SP into an account meant for others.
Down Voting
There has to be more down votes. There's a lot of shit content. We're not goign back to exponential rewards, so that means we have to have a way to clean up what sucks. We need a down vote pool.
Distribution
This has plagued this platform since I got here. The ninja mine lead to one of the worst economic distributions I've ever seen. It's terrible. You can't kill everyone and seize the steem. So, let's slowly distribute it. The best way to do that is inflation and making sure inflation goes to the active users (who typically aren't investors). This provides incentive to be here and write and earn.
Support Businesses and communities
If you're on the platform and want to see things go well buy stuff from others. If you need a server go to someguy. If you want a story go to the writers block. If you want entertainment hit up Steemmonsters. If you want to see the ecosystem grow you have to support it.
I agree. Undoubtedly, the number of active users determine the value of the currency.
This is why companies like Facebook and Google and Netflix all ploughed ahead, making no profits whatsoever in their formative stages, reinvesting all their resources to grow the number of active users, gain the network effect, and take an unassailable market lead. At that point, they monetized the numbers.
This is why bidbots are a bad idea, though, albeit I agree they are better than secret deals.
Since bidbots reapportion funds, from user base growth and retention, back to the holders of Steempower, active users are stagnated, borne out by statistics that show total active user numbers are no longer growing.
Since in a corrupt system, all parties tend to corruption, and the biggest losers are always the most altruistic, a Steemit solution requires altered algorithms, perhaps ones that reward curators more, as suggested by Luke Stokes, or maybe some other idea.
That said, another solution would be to give up on Steemit as a lost cause, allow it to stagnate, and go after new Steem users through the decoupled SMTs. That's where Ned is being really smart, because a better platform than Steemit can still be built on the Steem blockchain, through SMTs, even if Steemit itself ceases to grow.
"number of active users determine the value of the currency"
And this is our very sad report on those active users from @arcange:
I'm one of those content creators steemit is supposed to want to attract. Out of the 20 or so people I brought in this year, only my son @bxlphabet is still here. The others left - mostly quickly. The last two left last week. One said:
"There is no way steemit is worth all that effort. I'm going to stick with fb, pinterest and instagram where I get more better results for much less work."
The other one said:
"Not one of my moron fb friends could ever figure out how to post on steemit. They might be morons, but they are my morons."
Back in January, our number of redfish on @arcange's report was pushing 170K. Seeing it drop so far has been discouraging to me. And the dead fish category is now near 900k - so 9 out of 10 people fail. A few of my people who left are sill voting with auto-voters, so the active number is somewhat inflated.
I have no answers about what can be done, but I thought this report was a good addition to your post. Praying we all succeed here.
Yeah, well, I tend to think this whole thing is basically about hourly wage. When the price of steem is high the wage is high. When it's low the wage is low. Couple that with being new to the ecosystem people have to put in time, and as you note not every facebook dad can just hop onto steemit and roll. That said. I was on facebook for 5 years and never made a penny... so, even when I made a penny here it was better than 5 years over there.
Folks have to learn that getting your free lambo takes time.
But sadly, steemit advertises itself as a place content creators can get paid for their work. Then you get here and Oops! Not really! And then we get the lambo references or discussion about "greedy minnows." That phrase drove one of my guys out.
Many of my content creating friends - including me - do make money posting on fb - either with our pages or groups. We are not on social media to be social, but to earn a living. I get affiliate sales, book sales, and coaching work from fb. Some people do well with fb ads. This is a difference between content creators and casual posters. But neither of those categories of people seems to have a place here on steemit that makes sense.
As long as SBD is overvalued, the most obvious and almost non-debatable (though I realize people will debate just about anything) thing anyone can do to increase the price of STEEM is to vote for @burnpost. The blockchain takes $1 worth of STEEM from the reward pool and uses it to create 1 SBD. That 1 SBD can then be used by @burnpost to buy $1.40 worth of STEEM from the market and destroy it. This represents a net demand of $0.40 STEEM bought and permanently removed from the market (or an immediate 40% ROI to Steem stakeholders on the reward pool payments). (Other helpful things done by @burnpost such as fighting spam are a bonus.)
There are many debates about whether rewards are being put to good use, whether the pool is being raped, etc. but even the most worthy uses would probably have a hard time competing with an immediate, guaranteed 40% return on investment. The less worthy to completely non-worthy ones are likely not even break even, so the choice to instead realize a 40% return should be quite obvious.
I seem to recall a certain bellyrub bank preaching 40% return on investment, you may want to take the 40% number you used, (even if accurate), and change it to something else. (for psychologically insecurity reason associated with that term 40% ROI). People may not believe it even if it is true, and see it as just nothing more than another bellyrubbank type scam.
Now then a question...Would not a post declining payout, then voted at 100% by 7 of the biggest whale have the same effect? It is my understanding that declined payouts if any votes are received are burned up, like a high level dustvote.
Declined payouts are not burned, they are left in the pool and then distributed among other posts (and comments).
Thank you I have been trying to find out what happens to the declined payout funds, you are the first to enlighten me about it. There are just so many small parts of the "code" that is not known or understood by the general population of steemit., so I do appreciate you taking time to let me know. I just figured it would be like the dust votes - poof all burned up.
Dust votes are also kept in the pool (and therefore reallocated to other posts/comments) I believe, but I'm not 100% sure.
Then on that I was misinformed, Tim Cliff implied or stated that they were burned up, not returned.
A few things that come to mind that would surely help:
Probably a lot more things but these are my main points for now. Feel free to discuss my points in the replies.
If there was a well-funded account with lots of Steem Power could upvote a new user as soon as they registered enough to give them the Steem Power they need to start posting. If there was a template that a new user could enter info about themselves that would make an intro post and it would automatically be upvoted as soon as they posted it. On that post only the rewards could be paid instantly to their account, funding it. Problem solved. Instant account creation.
Indeed a good solution!!
I think SMT's to attract more projects and the Hive to create better tools for application development will be crucial. I don't think all that will happen this year, though.
I think the points you have mentioned here could help a lot. One thing I want to add is a potential Dapp like dlive could increase the demand of Steem a lot.
@acidyo
That is more or less what we did with the @sbcbot. It is a bod for the Sport betting community. Depending on the content of the applicant the blog will get whitelisted for the bot. Once a day, the than member can use the sbc tag to get an upvote from the bot. They don't have to purchase share or donate to the bot, the idea is to give these guys a push in the back, because they are rarely supported by other communities!
Besides quality posting and record keeping of their bets, we don't ask anything in return. Most members are red fishes but most of them appreciate the work of the community, so they donate 1 SBD to the bot per month. These funds are used to power up the bot, or to fund some contest organizes by our members!
We regularly control the post of the members and advice if needed. We don't require that our members make a profit with their betting, we just want them to be open, and luckily the blockchain is a great tool for this.
An upvote from out bot is around $0.15, which could save some members from leaving the platform. The biggest problem we have is that the bot is mainly dependent on delegations for the moment and mainly on one. Which always is a danger!
Something like this is possible for each kind of niche. You just need some people who are willing to put in the effort, time and some delegation!
But it is worth it. People are starting to interact with each other, which is our biggest dream!
We are a firm believer of interaction on the blockchain. This is according to us utmost important!
Cheers,
Peter
Agreed👍👍👍
Decay witness votes, Way too many passive incumbents leading to complacent witnesses.
I'm completely new, know nothing really, don't pretend to, but I just cast my first witness vote for Luke Stokes, because I saw his diplomatic and generous-spirited video where he nails the problems with Steemit growth stagnation (ie self-voting, secret deals and bidbots that deplete incentives for new authors), and makes great suggestions as to how Steemit growth can be re-incentivized.
@transisto that is something I didn't think about. How would that work?
Main things we can do that don't rely on Steemit, Inc. are:
Get more people to join and teach them how to succeed, which includes investing in STEEM at least $100 to start. (Obviously works more realistically for Americans/Europeans/Japanese, etc. than many parts of the world, but there are upvote pools those of us in richer countries use to help developing country folks get started stronger. I'm actually in the process of sponsoring a few people in Ghana with a daily upvote equivalent to them having put $100 into STEEM.) I have a course I create with video, linked text, etc. on how to get started on Steemit well and how to monetize your writing here successfully. Honestly, if I was 100% committed just to seeing STEEM price increase or Steemit grow I'd probably make it a free course, but the business consultant in me just won't let me do that. I did put a paltry $25 price tag on it (where my courses are normally $149-349) and I do give out A LOT of free coupons, but I still can't quite stomach putting a zero value on my labor in creating it. At some point I probably will make the course freely available though. I've seen that people do much better more quickly being guided on screen with explanations on why you do this or that as well as how. Apart from my course, more and more training materials in general that really break things down in a way a non-technical person can get it when the system really is pretty complex.
As part of education, emphasizing the benefits of powering up, at least until you reach the monthly income that really makes a difference in your life. This just comes down to having the math spelled out for people. I know how much I need to make off Steemit to be able to make writing here my primary income source, so I'm powering up everything until I hit that mark. Only then will I start selling rewards earnings for USD. Which brings me to my third point...
Have more ways to use STEEM to buy things without needing USD. I still would rather people powerup when they earn STEEM, but having STEEM really function as a currency could help massively to attract people not interested in content creation. And even when those of us earning STEEM spend it to buy things, so long as it doesn't get traded on an exchange for another cryptocurrency, it still doesn't bring down the price of STEEM.
We need to also educate on the incredible profit potential of STEEM. I honestly can't believe how many lists I see of passive income coins, or profit making coins apart from price appreciation, that don't include STEEM. Crypto or not crypto, where else can you get a 25-30% return just by loaning out the power of your investment, while still holding onto the underlying asset at all times?! It's unbelievably good an investment. That's before you consider the 10% per annum baked in plus the potential for price appreciation like any coin. Of course, I'm someone who buys delegated SP instead of selling it, so I'm not seeing that 25-30%, but I know the people I'm paying it to are! And it's a good deal for me too, because I'm using the extra SP to build up my own without locking up too much of my cashflow in crypto when I want to hold all crypto longterm.
In general, people using STEEM need to make sure they really understand STEEM themselves and then really talk it up. I talk about it at parties, on other platforms, at dinners, even with Lyft drivers and movers. Any chance I get, I spread the word and educate, and more of us need to be doing this.
Now I also have a long list of things Steemit could do too, like communities and getting rid of Trending completely, but that's for another post per your request.
a) I agree with @aggroed that the value of a social network increases dramatically with its number of active users. Yes, you are talking about STEEM while I wrote "social network". I am well aware of the fact that the STEEM blockchain doesn't consist of Steemit (or a social network in general) only, but it is a fact that the masses (if they join) will connect to the STEEM blockchain through socially interacting with other users.
One big problem is that new users aren't supported well enough. Experienced members should do the job (yes, it's hard work) to manually watch out and vote for posts of new users instead of auto-voting friends only!
I have tried to convince many friends to join Steemit but unfortunately most of the time if I wouldn't vote for them they nearly wouldn't earn anything if if they are writing interesting articles, many comments or upload dance videos on DTube or DLive.
As many others already mentioned, it really has to be as simple and fast as possible to create an account!
b) We have to make self-voting, circle-voting and spamming less attractive, for example by ...
... thinking about a reward curve which started as n^2 / exponential (thus flat), and then later changed into linear which would work against self-voting as well as excessive rewards.
@clayop had a similar idea.
... implementing diminishing returns when upvoting the same accounts (including own ones) again and again.
... reintroducing the restriction to four (or less) full paid posts (including comments) per day (from some hard forks ago) which was very reasonable. Just think at @haejin for example ...!
... considering also other ideas like the one of UserAuthority from @scipio.
Community building initiatives are huge. Steemmonsters is a wonderful example of adding value to the blockchain. Not only is there a group of people with a common interest (community) that is exclusive to steem, but there is an incentive for others to join that community from outside of the walls of this platform.
These need not be games, but ways for communities to engage. There are many other examples that I can think of. P.A.L, Utopian (off the top pf my head)... All groups that encourage community involvement are the key to adding value to the blockchain. There are also special interest groups emerging. I am involved in some Hip Hop groups and I am sure there are all kinds of other interest and cultural groups on this platform.
Some ways of providing initiative for being a part of the community are always great. Steemmonsters has some big whales supporting its movement and that has made a huge difference. We can be playing games for large prizes because of the big money injected into the movement, but also the publicity it has gotten because of the high profile users who are involved with the project. I am not sure if there is a person or a place that I can approach to apply for funding for community initiatives? If there is such a place, it needs to be far more publicized (cause I can't turn around without seeing steemmonsters), and if there isn't... that could be a huge plus for creating these community groups. Once people have found their place and their people, the need to milk the rewards pool is not so pressing. Friends tend to do that to us, they put things in perspective and life is about many things, many more important that making money.
If we are to use this blockchain to mine currency for personal gain... this blockchain will not last long. Gaming the system is the largest problem that I see and it is not only found in vote bots. Whale voting patterns can be just as bad, or worse, as vote bots. WE, as people who believe in Steem and Steemit are caught up in a prisoners dilemma with this issue. Everyone is raping and pillaging trying to get all that they can before the walls come down, why shouldn't I? If everyone stopped raping and pillaging we could have a sustainable community that could be rewarding (in more ways than one) for years to come. If this place is getting bled dry, I want my piece of the pie too. That is a dangerous mindset for our platform. People that care for steemit end up gaming the system because the ponzi is going to fail at any time. People already assume this place is not sustainable so they milk it for all its worth. We need to stop this mentality and I think that can be done by strengthening communities (likely with delegated steem).
Seeing the length of this comment, I am going to write a post about this topic and link it to your article. I appreciate the effort that you put into this platform and have never questioned my vote for you as witness. Keep up the good work.
Well said, what ever change there will be, it should discourage this behavior.
It is a tough one to break. I was shaken awake to see the error of my ways and I think others shown the clear choice that we are given would likely do the same. Make some money on the short term and kill a good thing... make some money sustainably for the rest of your life and pass on your steem account to your grandchildren.
If its up to human nature then the abuse will outweigh the good intention.
Unless there is a strong community to support a sustainable vision for steem. That is the most important thing to the success of steem in my opinion.
Here is a bit more thought out comment but pretty much says the same thing as I said above.
https://steemit.com/steem/@allcapsonezero/usd10-steem-in-2018
Steem/BTC needs to go back up to 50k satoshi and bictoin needs to go back up to 20kUSD
Then steem will be worth $10 exactly. haha
BUT you're wondering what things can we do to add value to the system encouraging people to want to hold on to their coins as price rises... k ...
New users
RETENTION OF USERS
Oh, God, YES!!! PLEASE!! We could also kick out dead followers and people who just troll for the heck of it. Every other social media platform has this. It should have been built into the system here a LONG TIME AGO!!!
Couldn't agree more.
Thanks @timcliff. Well, I saw this Post and I have been thinking about pulling the Trigger to get some more Steem and turn it to SP>
So after seeing this I went to my CB account and went ahead and bouht 947 shares of Steem and powered on up. And "NO" Iam not just conveniently making this up or saying to get some kind of spotlight here.
This is exactly what happened. I had been thinking of the $10 barrier so this Post kind of reinforced it.
Iam not versed as far as the actual tokens and what needs to be done to get to that $10. But I believe enough in the platfrom itself with Steemit to invest more.
And I think $10 is not unrealistic by beginning of 2019.