What if Steem's price goes to 1 cent- what can happen?

in #steemleo5 years ago (edited)

Let's imagine Steem crashed to 1 cents and breaking previous all time low of 6.5 cents. STINC went bankrupt and fire sold 50M steem to crash it to 2 cents. Then Steem lost all the faith of incoming and holding investors and it settled at 1 cents. Few top witnesses quit but there will be more than 20 witnesses who may still continue.

At 350M circulation Steem, assuming 250M Steem are liquid and 150 Steem are still powered by some die-hard and delusional Steemians. And, to make Steem 2 cents from 1 cents, 10 million Steem has to be bought.

steem-crash.jpg

If 1.5 cents are required to purchase a steem on average to make it 2 cents, then it will require only $150K at any moment. Will there be whales or a single whale who will take risk of $150K to buyout 10M Steem to make it 2 cents.

Only goal of buying an asset is to see appreciation of its value. Though Steem can provide up to 20% APR gain but if it crashes 500%, it will not attract any investors.

Investors will food in when they see the high possibility of bigger return. At this moment, very few investors are buying and sell pressure is quite high. Rough estimation is that 1.5 millions Steem per month or 50K Steem per day are for sell.

At 20 cents, roughly $10K per day or $300K per month capital is required. A single whale with $3.6M yearly income can buy up all the steem at this price forever. They don't have to buy $3.6M worth of Steem, probably $1M worth of Steem per year will be suffice along with other small buyers.

This is how low Steem has gone due to lack of buyers: we are seeing 19 cents and next all time low is 6.5 cents.

Now imagine at 1 cents, it will require only $50K by a single whale per year to held Steem at 1 cents for eons.

Now imagine that there are 400 Orcas in Steem chain (including myself). A single orca can buy up $50K worth of Steem each year to held Steem price at 1 cents.

It means that Steem will never reach 1 cents. However, how low it can go before it rebounds: probably 15 cents, 10 cents and even 7 cents. My personal hunch is for 10 cents. @taskmaster4450 has also promised to post tomorrow about Steem's floor:

Fortunately, as I will show in another article tomorrow, there is a floor on the price of STEEM. Have no fear, this is not going to zero. That I can guarantee.

At 10 cents, a whale or few whales have to buy $500K worth of Steem every year which is quite feasible. I believe that we have few die-hard whales who will take measures at 10 cents.

However, at 1 cent a Steem, it will be whole different game. Few Orcas (in real world they are well off too but not close to whales) can control the whole Steem supply and they can become whales themselves and steady the Steem ship at 1 cents.

Though it would be extreme for me, but I can myself take a big effort to buy up $50K worth of Steem yearly to keep it at 1 cents until other Orcas arrives (assuming whales left).

You can read the great article by @taskmaster4450: Why STEEM Drops More Relative To Other Cryptocurrencies and following comments to understand why Steem''s pricing dropping so hard. Here is my proposed solution.

Off course it will require ninja-marketing to bring in new investors who will consume the supply and a little bit financial engineering which companies do all the time by buying back their stocks.

Disclaimer: This opinion is not a financial advice, it my personal perspective and opinion. Please seek professionals for financial decisions.

Thanks for reading.
@dtrade
Cryptominer since 2013, trader and tech blogger

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If it happens, I will then become a whale ultimately! Orca would be a drop in thr bucket and we could hand on Minnow accounts for a cup of coffee!

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I love this economics, I had this thought exactly in my head but you helped make it true somewhat. I don't see it going below 1.5 though...so will a bitcoin major bull make any difference?

at those low prices many dapp owner will be fight to buy more steem power!!

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Thanks for that. I'm only just now getting my head around the economics of something that I came to purely because it represents a much harder to censor blogging platform. I really started here in earnest when my Facebook account was deleted by Facebook without warning.

Also, one has to see these price drops in a logarithmic way. Down here at $0.19, there is a whole lot more significance of dropping another $0.09 down to $0.10 than moving from $0.59 to $0.50.

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