Will the WeWork Crash Prove to Be a Canary in the Coal Mine?

in #steemleo5 years ago (edited)

Well, old Scott Galloway is at it again. This WeWork debacle is really helping him make a name for himself. And it should. When historians look back at what was the straw that broke the camel's back on this - the longest running US bull market in the history of marketkind - chances are they will look at WeWork and the Softbank Vision Fund as the inflection point where investors finally just collectively threw their hands up and said, "Fuck this! I'm out."

There's nothing that embodies the LIFESTYLE of the past few years more than co-working and massive venture capital funds getting thrown at decent, but never great, business ideas.

Prof. Galloway first published a missive on this WeWork mess titled "WeWTF" on his own website. It was a two part post, with the second part posted a month after the first. Now, he's being interviewed by NY Mag, beating the drum on just what a PoS this WeWork debacle has become. And all in just the short space of a month.

No, my blockchain peops, I am unfortunately not talking about Proof of Stake, although I wish I was. I spent the past year-plus in a WeWork getting the Konstellation office in China properly structured and ready to expand. WeWork is a nice place for doing that kind of transitory setting up process. But I never saw us staying there forever.

That basically means that the $50 billion valuation that WeWork was reportedly fetching just before its now-doomed IPO was completely a mirage. Galloway even mentions that Goldman Sachs was throwing around a $60 to $90 billion number. For any of those numbers to hold any water, it would mean that every tenant ever to cross the threshold of a The We Company signature sliding glass door were planning and able to stay there for 10 years. In a startup world that is already showing signs of distress 10+ years into this ever-inflating bull market, that’s simply not happening.

The writing was on the wall back in July when We founder Adam Neumann sold over $700 million of his stake at inflated Softbank levels. According to Tech Crunch, that amount was "among the highest recorded by a private company executive" ever. Like many orders of magnitude more.

And now those chickens have come home to roost. The company has fired Neumann and the 20 or so folks in his inner circle that supported in him in making bad decisions like buying a $60 million private jet. That's gone now, too. Ever heard of NetJets, bro? Way cheaper than 60 bills.

Galloway colorfully describes Neumann's exit in various hyperbole in the NY Mag interview:

  • He and SoftBank entered into a suicide pact, and he jumped out of the plane before it hit the ground. He pulled the rip cord. He has exited the suicide pact with $740 million, and everyone else gets to ride this out to its logical end, which will likely be a bankruptcy file.
  • He has taken $750 million and left a toxic-waste cleanup.
  • He got on the last helicopter out of Saigon.

WeWork expects to layoff more than a third of their employees this month. Meanwhile, one of his many side bets - Selina, which does some remarkably similar stuff to the We Company - is raising another $500 million this month with the help of Bank of America. You can't make this stuff up.

So my company, at least, moves on... There’s 10 other office sharing spaces within walking distance not operated by WeWork. Heck, we can even sign our own lease somewhere. Not a big deal.

But WeWork employees don’t have that choice. They gave up years of their life and loads of potential salary, for THIS.😳

Now more than a third of them are gonna be not only out of million-dollar-plus outsized IPO windfalls but also out of a paycheck, out of insurance, and out of luck with about 50 days to go before Christmas.

That’s the real tragedy.

What happens to the markets after this remains to be seen. Whatever it is, it just can't be good for the valuations of loss-making startups.

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Thanks for this. I've watched WeWork's rise with incredulity here in Israel. To be honest their rise perfectly matched a kind of frothy exuberance that marks the startup sector here. I have a not very nice looking 300 m² mixed warehouse and offices to the east of Tel Aviv in a less than salubrious part of a mixed industrial neighbourhood. It doesn't look nice but I'm pretty sure we're paying 25% of the cost of 2 desks in WeWork. You can buy an awful lot of "free" beer for that.

They did light a rocket under the serviced offices market, but once they did it, every other provider raised their game and I still have no idea how they can differentiate themselves.

We pay around $400/mo./desk in downtown Shanghai. It’s definitely too much. Once you get to 6 people, it makes sense to move to your own space. I have no idea how VC didn’t realize that simple truth.

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Do you really need to buy votes? Your content is decent and people will see it. STEEM has suffered enough under this old regime. I'm an investor here and want to see things get better. Nothing personal.

Do what you want but there’s no way to get new people to see your content (and thus get new followers) unless you at least some of the time get on trending. And right now there is no way to get on trending unless you are talking about meta bullshit (like this convo right here about downvotes) or you are one of the “chosen” by one of the whales. Bid bots have a place and that’s to help people try and get seen above the noise that is STEEM most of the time. I’d gladly pay for the service but there’s no way to gauge what the bid is going to be worth. So sometimes the bid will be profitable and sometimes not. But I picked up 2 new followers as a direct result of that bid so I definitely think it was worth it. Most of my stuff I don’t think is worth promoting, but this topic did really well on Linkedin so I figured it was worth promoting.

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So sometimes the bid will be profitable and sometimes not.

That's the thing, advertising should come at a cost. Decline your rewards and nobody will bother you.

Why should you, or I or Microsoft advertise something and expect a return for their expense?

It's been going on far too long here, and that's what the community want to put and end to.

Why would I decline all of my rewards when I want to advertise to get more views to get more rewards? Your logic doesn’t make sense.

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