"Feed the Burn" - and my view on the recent price development of cards

After three days of pure addict behaviour I have finally made and finished to fill my Steem Monsters deck. I exchanged one of my Chromatic dragons against a Gold Dragon. "Feed the Burn". Thank you @tzap90.

Also, I bought a ton of epics and while doing so I met @oliverschmid who brought me onto the idea to concentrate on a specific type. We exchanged a lot of cars ( must have been more than 300 cards I think) and I levelled up my life team significantly. So if you want to swap anything in this area, let me know. Thank you Oliver for the inspiration and the fair trades.

To round up my day I read a post from @emrebeyler who was missing some legendaries. He had been very inspirational for me with his posts on steem python programming and I felt it was a good idea to gave him one of my Chromatic Dragons as a present. It feels good to being able to pay back.

Finally, I would like to share my views on the recent price development of the Steem Monster cards. Trading in the discord channel is lively 8and fun to do btw), but prices are stagnating or dropping rather than rising. Why is this so and how is this going to evolve:

Some users have quickly adopted the role as merchants. What they do is basically buying packs, opening them and selling the single cards for a profit.

1 pack of 5 cards currently costs 2 USD. Including the 10% discount when buying 100 packs the price comes down to USD 1.82 per pack or 0.77 Steem.

To buy 100 cards will thus cost them around 15.40 Steem. Yesterday however due to a glitch in the SBD price on Coinmarketcap the price was for a limited time even significantly lower. But let's work with the current regular price.

Until today you would receive an average of 1.4 legendaries and around 5 epics. Lets assume that the rest is worthless as it is too time consuming to trade it.

Prices for the epics have been around 0.5 Steem per epic, this means around 2.5 Steem from your 100 cards. This makes a remaining amount of roughly 13 Steem for the 1.4 legendaries. Dividing 13 Steem by 1.4 results in a purchase price for the legendaries of on average 9.3 per legendary card. Plus the add on from the other smaller cards.

As this can be repeated by the merchants all the time it is clear that the price will not rise under these condition. It will stay at something slightly north of 10 Steem.

However, today the Steem Monster team has announced that the drop rate for legendary cars will go down - first to 1% per card and later to 1% per pack (or 0.2% per card). https://steemit.com/steemmonsters/@steemmonsters/steem-monsters-mini-updates

This means that the merchants cannot continue this game. To create additional supply they need much higher prices. I would thus believe that the price for legendary cards will go up relatively quickly to about 15 Steem (13 Steem / 1 legendary plus trading margin) and than later to something more than 50 SBD once the drop rate has bottomed out. Also, I would expect the price of epic cards to rise significantly. this is why I am buying more epics as of now. So if you have anything to offer, please let me know.

What do you think? Let me know.

all the best,

rondras

PS In my last post I had promised to give away 5 packs to new users with less than 30 cards - unfortunately nobody qualified for this as all had collected much more cards already. I will thus do a new give-away soon.