The Real Winners Are The Twenty-First Century Fox, Inc. Shareholders

in #stock6 years ago

Four weeks ago, I discussed with the AT&T-Time Warner merger approved, look for an immediate battle between Comcast and Disney as they duke it out for Twenty-First Century Fox, Inc.’s content as early as today. Twenty-First Century Fox, isn’t a technology company, but is already trading at a very rich premium, which is only going to increase as the bidding war begins and continues.

Does the AT&T-Time Warner Merger Signal A Market Top???

Twenty-First Century Fox – $40.54 as of 6/13/18

In late June, Disney agreed to a deal that values 21st Century Fox's assets, excluding the Fox News and Fox Business channels, at $71.3 billion. That agreement outdid Comcast's $65 billion offer, which itself bested Disney's initial December bid of $52 billion. The price may go higher if Comcast comes back with a higher offer.

Twenty-First Century Fox – $48.58 as of 7/11/18

What’s for grab is Fox include movie studios, television networks National Geographic and FX, Star TV in India, stakes in British pay-TV company Sky and online streaming service Hulu and regional sports networks.

What’s at stake is Hulu and the ability to compete against Netflix. In addition, India is the 2nd biggest internet market, Netflix knows this and so does Comcast and Disney. Again with Star TV in India, Comcast and Disney would be able to compete against Netflix in India.

As the bidding war intensifies, the value of the Fox assets decrease which will make it more challenging to create value during the integration phase into which ever company wins.

Nevertheless, the real winners are the shareholders of Twenty-First Century Fox, who are sitting back, eating popcorn on the sofa and watching Comcast and Disney duke it out.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn't financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
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by rollandthomas


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Fox wants the Disney deal as they have quoted saying. It's approved. Both will need to finance the deal. Comcast published this, but Disney's balance sheet only shows $4M cash, so it's clearly needs to finance. Will be interesting if Fox ups bid for UK's Sky which Comcast just raised their bid for. Someone's going to eventually get killed when the debt financing comes due.

So true, at this rate, it will be years before the winning bidder sees any value.

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