Why Hurricane Forecasts Really Are Better Than Ever
Cyclone psychics? Or tropic blunders? Sometimes it’s tough to gauge just how accurate modern hurricane predictions really are. Well in April, the Weather Channel reported that the modern five-day forecast is as accurate as a two-day track was 25 years ago. And for once, they’re not just hyping shit up. We decided to ring National Hurricane Center Nostradamus, John Cangialosi, to get the latest on hurricane futures — and how to make sure you’re staying on track.
We’re not used to buying what the Weather Channel’s selling when it comes to storm news. Are today’s five-days forecast really as accurate as a two-day prediction in 1993?
Believe it or not, it is true. To put it in a nutshell, today the [track] errors are about half the size as what they were 15 years ago. In 2017, we set records in every single one of those forecasts for the lowest errors we had on record. And that was a very challenging year.
When you say size, you mean that the “Cone of Uncertainty” was twice as big 25 years ago?
It’s slightly more complicated than that. But yes, that’s a ball-park correct statement.
And yet coastal residents are always getting surprised by storms. Like Matthew, the Outer Banks were outside the cone and still felt some serous wind and flooding.
That’s a good point. And we struggle with that because cone is only connected to the center of the system, which could be the eye. And our models don’t know if the system’s big and there will be impacts well beyond the center. They don’t know how confident we are in the forecast as a whole. So, there’s a bit of miscommunication. We’re trying to get people to use that tool, but then leave it at some point and pay more attention to the more impact-related products — windspeed probability, storm surge probability — to see what the hurricane might do to your area overall more than where the center is likely to go.
Tommy Ihnken
Tommy Ihnken, Cape May during Hurricane Mathew. Photo: Ryan Mack
So, why are forecasts getting so much better?
In a word: technology. How much has changed since the ‘90s? The primary contribution, is the global computer models have gotten so much better. They run at higher resolution and have better ways of getting current data into the models, so you get a more realistic position in terms of what’s happening weather-wise. They have better physics and better assumptions and that all gives us better predictions. The second part is the new satellites that have gone up to help us observe systems better. I’d like to say it’s us getting better, but that would be incorrect — though we do deserve a little credit for finding better methods to milk the technology. So, the improvement we’ve made in track predictions are tremendous. Now the question is: will that continue? The errors will never reach zero, but at some point, we’ll get a little less bang for our buck. Where we have long way to improve is projecting how strong a system is going to be.
Hurricane Joaquin’s track, 2015.
Is that where the new drones come into play?
Yes. And the new drones are cool. There’s a collaborative project between NOAA and NASA called the Global Hawk. It’s essentially the same thing as the NOAA Hurricane Hunters, except they fly higher and faster, they stay up longer — and they’re unmanned. It’s not a replacement yet, because it’s so expensive. But in 25 years, assuming the money makes sense, it might be. And Hurricane Hunters fly through the system at around 10,000 feet. We want to know what’s going on closer to the ocean’s surface. But you can’t go there in a manned plane; it’s too turbulent, too risky. A couple years ago, NOAA developed another experimental drone called the Coyote, which they down to the lower reaches. It’s disposable. We don’t get it back. They just drop it down where it gets banged around until it disappears. But the data it’s providing is incredible.
What about general voodoo stuff? Myths? Wives tales? Are any of them true? For example, are female names really deadlier?
[Laughs.] That one actually came up today on a tour. That’s because all hurricanes had female names for decades. So, no truth to that one, really. The big assumption we struggle with most is, “I’ve been through the last one, so I can handle this one.” But every storm is different. Maybe the last time they just got clipped or the new one’s much bigger. But as far as crazy myths, there are so many, I don’t know where to start.
Michael Dunphy, Joaquin. Photo: Billy Watts
Michael Dunphy, Joaquin. Photo: Billy Watts
Here on the Outer Banks, people always talk about the “I” storms because we’ve been hit by Isabel and Irene. “I” pops up and everyone’s like, “Here we go!”
Well, if you went through the statistics, there might be something there, simply because the ‘I’ storms usually happen around the peak of the season. And those storms usually track further west — but that has nothing to do with the letter itself.
What about long term forecasting? The seasonal predictions and what-not?
The evolution there is a little slower in my opinion. And from a public outreach standpoint we say don’t worry about those forecasts too much, because it doesn’t tell you a heck of a lot more than whether a season will be busier or less busy than average. The specifics of where they’re going to go and who’ll they affect, that science just isn’t there.
And, of course, it only takes one storm to make a catastrophe — as you hear all the time.
I think every director who’s ever worked here echoes that 100 times a season.
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Editor’s note: Surfline’s Director of Forecasting Mark Willis wanted to add: “The only thing I’ll say is that the improvement in hurricane forecasts means the resulting wave forecasts have also gotten better. But don’t worry, there is still a ton of complexity and uncertainty, so you still need to pay attention to our forecast team and not just model hop.”
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The Name Game
Which storms will keep you spinning — which will keep you stoked? We scanned this year’s list of names, then applied our own mix of history and hoodoo to call the shots.
Best for Memes: Isaac, Kirk, Tony. Nothing gets the Internet fired-up like slapping funny, famous faces on future tracks. Look for the Love Boat’s bartender, the Enterprise’s captain, and at least one coke-fueled Cuban crime boss to “say hello to your little friends” on Facebook.
Best for Waves: Beryl, Florence, Leslie. The last time Leslie swung past, in 2012, she turned Pea lsland into a racing sand point. Famous firing “F” storms include both ’95’s Felix and ’04’s Frances; this year’s “Florence” also shares a name modern surfing’s largest freak-of-nature. And who doesn’t want to get Beryl’d?
Best Watch Out: Gordon, Isaac, Sara. In ’94, a Gordon shut down NC 12 for four days — and he was just a little depressed. Outer Bankers keep both eyes peeled on every “I” storm, thanks to Irene and Isabel. But don’t trust Sara no matter how much she smiles. Not only does the NHC rotate names on a six-year basis — they also retire the names of major catastrophes. So, Sara’s really just Sandy in disguise.
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2018 Atlantic Storm Names
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William
2018 Pacific Storm Names
Aletta
Bud
Carlotta
Daniel
Emilia
Fabio
Gilma
Hector
Ileana
John
Kristy
Lane
Miriam
Norman
Olivia
Paul
Rosa
Sergio
Tara
Vicente
Willa
Xavier
Yolanda
Zeke