UFC 236 - Middleweight Kelvin Gastelum (+140) vs. Israel Adesanya (-170) - Betting Thoughts
The numbers came out a lot closer than I thought but that is only because of the Jiu-Jitsu and the submissions. Thus, that tells the whole story. If Kelvin gets it to the ground it is over and if Israel keeps it standing it is over. That is going to be the tale of the fight. I want to see them at the weigh ins before I decide. If anything it will be a small bet on the dog Kelvin Gastelum. I can't lay money on Israel just because I have no idea what he is going to do if he is taken to the ground.
| Category | Kelvin | Israel | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record | 4 | 5 | Israel is undefeated |
| KO | 4 | 5 | Israel has 13 finished out of 16 and Kelvin has 6 our of 15. |
| Submission | 4 | 1 | Kelvin has 4 subs and Israel has 0 |
| Durability - KO | 5 | 5 | Neither man has been stopped |
| Durability - Submission | 3 | 5 | Justin was never submitted but Edson was subbed twice |
| Striking | 4 | 5 | Kelvin was subbed once |
| Wrestling | 5 | 3 | Kelvin has a 50% takedown rate. Israel has an 85% defense rate. |
| BJJ | 4 | 1 | Kelvin has 4 subs and Israel has 0 |
| Physical Build | 2 | 5 | Israel has a 9" reach and 7" height advantage. |
| Total | 35 | 35 | |
| Score | 0.78 | 0.78 |