UFC 236 - Welterweight Curtis Millender (+105) vs. Belal Muhammad (-135) - Betting Thoughts
Both men are coming off losses. Belal lost a decision and Curtis was submitted. This is going to be a classic wrestler versus striker. The whole question is whether Belal can take it to the ground. Two of Belal's last losses where where he did not get any takedowns. He averages 2.13 takedowns per 3 round fights.
I am leaning to Belal here but I need to look at some of Belal's fights before I make a final pick. I would pick the Over (2.5) but the odds are too high at -220. I will decide closer to fight time.
| Category | Millender | Muhammad | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record | 80 | 82 | Belal has a 2% higher win rate but effectively they are the same. |
| KO | 35 | 29 | Curtis has a higher KO rate |
| Submission | 0 | 0 | Neither has any submission |
| Durability - KO | 100 | 94 | Curtis has never been stopped |
| Durability - Submission | 86 | 100 | Belal has never been stopped |
| Striking | 45 | 41 | Curtis has a higher accuracy rate |
| Wrestling | 60 | 100 | Belal is the wrestler and Curtis has problems with wrestlers |
| Physical Build | 100 | 90 | Curtis has a 3" height and 4" reach advantage. |
| Total | 506 | 536 | |
| Score | 63.25 | 67.00 |
Actually this is going to be a pretty motivated fight
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