November '18 New STEEM Account Report

in #utopian-io5 years ago

At the beginning of every month I prepare a report containing details of new users for the previous month. I had changed to every second month for part of the year. However due to HF20 and the changes in account creation, I believe this report will be of value on a month to month basis and will be returning to producing it monthly, with additional information relating to account creation tokens.

If you missed the last report you can read it here

https://steemit.com/utopian-io/@paulag/october-18-new-steem-account-report-1541161869810

Aim of Analysis

The aim of this analysis is:

• Establish how many new users registered

• Establish what % of accounts have posts and voted and are just wallet holders.

• See who is claiming account creation tokens

• Establish if delegation is been given to accounts to they can transact. 

 Repository

https://github.com/steemit/steem

Year to Date Data

 

2018 Year to date has seen  0.64M new accounts registered on STEEM.  

The median new accounts per month this year is 37.6.  This is down from a median of 48.8K, last month as we have seen another substantial drop in the number of new users. With only 14,671 new account in November, this is the lowest month this year.  We can see clearly that the first quarter of the year had substantial more registrations the then next two quarters.  New registrations had been decreasing since March.

October Overview

 

The above dashboard shows details of accounts set up in October.  Of the 15K new accounts, 13.71% have completed their about section in their profiles and 6.45% have added a link.  Completing these fields indicate a level of the quality of the user and have a correlation with retention and these values remain consistent with last month.

30% of accounts have posted once, with 6.8% posting more than 10 times and 0.5% posting more than 50 times.  Again this is consistent with last month

66.7% of accounts have voted at least once.

Looking at the activity pie we can see 'Not active' accounts make up only 9.9% of accounts.  Fully active accounts have both posted and voted.  This makes up almost 9% of accounts registered in November.  21.4% of accounts have posted but never voted and 57.8% have voted and never posted.  Finally only 1.92% of accounts are Wallet user only.

1.875K STEEM was burnt on Account creation fees and 0M vests were delegated to in the set-up process.

The table on the left of the dashboard shows who set up the accounts.

HF20 Changes

Under HF20 accounts can now be set up by either burning the STEEM and sending delegation so the accounts can transact, or they can be set up with discount account creation tokens where the fee is 0, however these accounts also seem to need delegation to transact.

95.7% of new accounts set up, were set up with the newly introduced account creation tokens.  The balance was made up of accounts set up by burning steem at 3 steem per account.

 

However when accounts are set up, without delegation, there resource credits and voting mana need to be boosted so they can really transact on the block.  So many new accounts have received delegation?

11,171 which is 87.5% of accounts set up in November have received delegation.

Of this 11,171 account that received delegation, almost 90% received 30K Vests

 

Account Creation Tokens

The introduction of account creation tokens in HF20 allows users claim the right to set up an account.  In total 60K account creation tokens were claimed in November.  Below shows who has been claiming these account creation tokens.  We can see Steemit Inc has claimed 33% of these, yet they have set up 80% of new accounts.  Last month Steemit Inc set up 87% of the new accounts

 

 Conclusion

The number of new accounts created has been on a downtrend since April.  November had over 90% less accounts registered than January.

So far with the introduction of HF20 changes, we have not yet seen a very large shift from the account creation process being handled by Steemit inc and other sources, however @steemmonsters created almost 3.5% of all new account in November and steemit inc now only created 80%. So the change is happening, just slowly.

 It is also interesting that most accounts are receiving delegation, although small, to help them with RC's.

What is rather interesting is the activity levels.  Only 9.86% of new accounts set up in October are not active.  This value was almost 35% in September.  Last month we see an increase in the % of accounts voting only and this month remained consistent with last month.   This was 30% in September and now is over 57%.  It can only be assumed without further analysis that this increase is down to more alt accounts used for auto voting.


The Data-source and Query

As always to produce this report I connect to Steemsql (paid subscription services held and managed by @arcange ) with Power BI. The SQL query used to gather the data for this report was

Select *
FROM Accounts (NOLOCK)
where   
( created >= CONVERT(datetime,'01/01/2018')
AND created< CONVERT(datetime,'12/01/2018')



To get details of who set up each account I used the following query


Select *
FROM txAccountcreates (NOLOCK)
where   
timestamp >= CONVERT(datetime,'01/01/2018')



and to get details of accounts that used their wallets I used the following


select [from], timestamp
from TXTransfers
where   
timestamp >= CONVERT(datetime,'01/01/2018')


The query used to find out who is claiming accounts was

Select *
FROM TxAccountClaims (nolock)

Once I loaded the data into Power BI, I then carried out transformation and calculations using DAX language. 


*
Sort:  

Hi @paulag,
thanks for the update! Unfortunately, the number of new account registrations continues its downwards trends, like we've seen it with post, comments and authors. Not only steem created fewer accounts than last month, several of the other creators as well. steemmonsters could increase their numbers, which is a good sign I think!
The activity levels are indeed very interesting. More than half of the accounts only voted and never posted - that's quite a lot! Maybe worth a more detailed look?

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I also think the activity level metrics is really really positive. If I understand correctly, one month after creation, more than 90% of accounts are still active.

Only 9.86% of new accounts set up in October are not active.

I was thinking the difficulty of creating an account is an obstacle to acquire more users. But I wasn't considering only the most interested and techie users would be able to enter.

We could call this strategy: "Only the best survive". Should fixing the signup process a priority right now? I don't think so. What about you?

~90% of the accounts created in November did "something" on the chain, which is very good I think. But only around 10% posted and voted, and around half of the new accounts only voted. It's hard to tell how many on them are really "human"? Additionally, the analysis looks into the account actions within the month of creation, so it contains the activity of around one month for accounts created at the beginning of the month, but possibly only a few days for accounts created near the end of the month. Does the signup process need fixing? I'm not sure - we know how many accounts were created, but we don't know how many users tried to get an account...

Steemit inc had said previously they were collecting data on the sign up process from first completing the sign up form to first logging in. They never shared any data in the end. The process is broke and hence the changes to make others responsible. Now we need to see these responsible parties take action

Posted using Partiko Android

I would love to see that "only the best survive " on the sign up page

Posted using Partiko Android

Thank you for your review, @crokkon! Keep up the good work!

Great Analysis like always thank you. I wonder how the new Steemonboarding effort will have its impact when it comes to the behavior of new users. The number of active accounts who vote and post should go up over time if we get the on-boarding issue right.

that's will only be effective for people they onboard, people can onboard else where without having to do the steemonboarding training.

Excellent if depressing analysis.

Do you know how many 'claimed accounts' get passed on to new users and how many get used as alt accounts?

Posted using Partiko Android

14K new accounts from the 60K claimed account. I have no idea how many of these are alt, but i would say a large %

Well once again a splendid overview!
Really like the layout of the first graph!

Also nice to know that steemmmonsters did created 500 account this month! Would be great for them and steem if they could have another month with these figures!

Cheers,
Peter

yep its a very positive sign from steemmonsters, they are an awesome app with massive appeal

@steemmonsters continue to lead by example. They are providing SP delegation for those new users okaying automatically once a user runs out of RCs.

Posted using Partiko iOS

they are setting an awesome example, unfortunately chats I have had with some other apps owners and they are not interested in on boarding

That is unfortunate as it is an opportunity lost to entangle users for them for their DApp and the ecosystem. Luckily, I have seen a couple starting their own like @steemonboarding which I am encourage to see deploy given the leaders, talent and even stake being committed!

Posted using Partiko iOS

So, fewer accounts are being created but they are more active. Interesting tradeoff.

not a good trade off if they are bots set up for voting....

True, I would prefer we outlaw most bots. It removes the need and motivation for people to actually interact with the site. This is a SOCIAL site. Abdicating participation through a bot is one of the biggest downfalls Steemit has made. It undermines the core strength of the platform!

In essesnce i agree. However what bots do is increase the number if transactions per block, and so make the steem block look more active and attractive to investors, not that i like that idea but many others do

Posted using Partiko Android

Why would anyone judge the attractiveness of a social network based upon the artificial size of transaction blocks. Social sites are measured on the size and activity of the network. When analysts talk about Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and WeChat, they look at the user base and activity. Not the consistency of data flows. The number of transactions in blocks can, and in our case, are artificially manipulated. Bots, fake accounts, etc. can pad such measures. Let's instead focus on what really matters: the growth of active users and activity. That is not accomplished by allowing users to automate (set and forget) their activity.

agreed, focusing on the people and engagement is the way forward

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The median new accounts per month this year is 37.6. This is down from a median of 48.8K, last month as we have seen another substantial drop in the number of new users. With only 14,671 new account in November, this is the lowest month this year.

I'm going to say something very strange here…

Maybe the precipitous drop in the value of STEEM has pushed us into maximum bot saturation, to the point where it is no longer valuable to spin-up another autonomous agent to do things on the blockchain. Sure, interest has dropped like a stone in a lake thanks to the fact that the standard pitch of "you can make money" is absolutely unsustainable in the face of what's going on in the market, but there has to be some silver lining, somewhere, right?

Given that one of the reasons for the heavy layoffs at Steemit Inc. earlier this month was implicitly lay at the feet of there being simply too much activity/size of the blockchain to make sustaining the number of witness servers they had plausible, this should do wonders for staying ahead of that load, right?

The above dashboard shows details of accounts set up in October. Of the 15K new accounts, 13.71% have completed their about section in their profiles and 6.45% have added a link. Completing these fields indicate a level of the quality of the user and have a correlation with retention and these values remain consistent with last month.

It would be very useful to have trend graphs for this section. The raw, absolute numbers are ugly enough, but I suspect that looking at them over the last six months, one year, and two year periods would be more than a gut check.

Also, a breakdown of the accounts which have posted and never voted and voted and never posted in terms of how many posts or votes they've actually done would be interesting.

11,171 which is 87.5% of accounts set up in November have received delegation.

Of that number, who created the accounts which receive delegation? Who created the accounts which did not receive delegation?

It's not surprising that Steemit Inc. has been creating the bulk of accounts. That just makes sense. It's not surprising that all of the top creators of accounts using account creation tokens are all significant whales, since holding STEEM gives you the RC necessary to create account creation tokens.

It would be interesting to know how many of those new accounts are being staked at a significant level.

accounts set up that have significant delegation, including creator

Steemit inc created the vast majority of accounts with delegation

I dont have a graph for the trend on % with about complete, and yes, numbers can be ugly, will add it next time :-)

As for the silver living, being a positive person in general, I always see a silver lining, even when the data is shit

Judging from this data – it appears even I was being optimistic, and how often does that happen?

I'm deeply amused at the heavy duty new accounts with significant delegation. In a few places, you can see bot networks doing the bare minimum to try and set up obscuration chains but whoever wrote the thing in the first place just couldn't help themselves and had to have a sense of humor. I know the feeling.

In fact, it's kind of interesting to see the number of accounts which are created with delegation and then in turn create a new account with delegation in this particular report. Even with the cut off being relatively high, this is pretty significant.

I wonder what a relationship graph built off of the data going down much deeper would look like.

I found an abstraction layer for Python which puts a programmatic interface over generating SQL (called "pony" if anyone's curious) which would make wrestling with this kind of data almost tolerable for me, but I'm not sure I want to go down that particular rabbit hole again.

It's good to see that Steem Monsters is doing a fairly decent job of onboarding. Though it is one of those situations in which you have to wonder how many of those accounts belong to people who have accounts already, looking to just play more with different accounts. There is some degree of motivation in the game designed to drive that.

Oh, when I said that "the numbers can be ugly," what I meant was that the actual content of the numbers communicated an ugly story. These numbers do not create a pretty picture. I don't mind looking at columns, per se, but the interpretation… Not good.

At some point, we need to stop having more questions than answers – but I think we're a long way from that.

Sorry I didnt give you good news. But the silver lining, well maybe thats steemmonsters

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