美国对乌克兰的六百亿美元援助：政治游戏与全球经济代价

再来聊再来聊聊国际时事。之前说过，美国国会通过了六百亿美元支援乌克兰的议案。也说过，这笔钱并不是真的为了让乌克兰能够打败俄罗斯，只是为了维持战争一直打下去，就像之前的反恐战争，在阿富汗打了二十年一样，最后一切回到原点，塔利班掌控阿富汗，美国军队撤出。虽然看似一切都回到了原点，但是美国的各大利益集团却是赚的盆满钵满。从军工复合体到各个国防承包商到和战争有千丝万缕联系的高级官员和企业。承担损失的自然就是美国的纳税人。当然，由于美元的霸权地位，实际上是全世界的普通人承担了这笔经济代价。而阿富汗的平民的付出了战争伤亡生命代价。

如今的这场乌克兰战争也是一样的。而且从现在的事态来看，这一点越发明显了，甚至美国国内的所谓党派争端都只是演戏而已。所有的政客，不管他是民主党还是共和党，他们实际上是一伙的。他们其实是有共同利益的。

美国两党制下的这种党争和中国古代历史上的专制王朝朝廷里的党争，有明显的不同。中国王朝时代的党争，即便是在政治氛围较为宽松的宋代，也是以终结对手的政治生命为目的。在明朝东林党与阉党之间，更是有时要达到以肉体消灭对手为目的。有你死我活的意味。而美国的民主与共和党之间的党争，除了民主党对川普进行政治追杀和封杀，有些中国古代党争的意味之外，其他大部分时候只是在演戏而已。

可以说，很多人相信的美式议会民主有纠错能力只是一个美丽的童话，当然也不能完全否定。在民主框架下，理论上还是有让第三方势力崛起的可能性的，比如阿根廷的素人总统米莱就能够当选。但是这种概率在美式民主下一听应该是非常非常小的。

一个两党之间名为对抗。实为演戏的例子，就是上调国债上限。现在美国的国债已经超过三十万亿。而按照美国的制度设计，国会掌握财财权，这发债必须不能超过国会设定的债务上限。但是美国政府在世界范围内施加影响力，援助乌克兰援助以色列援助，台湾。在国内要大搞社会福利收买底层选票。对民主党来说，后者同样需要花大笔的钱，这样大手大脚地花钱，导致国债的规模必须不停地膨胀下去。一旦触及债务上限，民主和共和两党议员就会出来表演。一般民主党要通过，共和党要牢牢把持住国会不让当通过。但是每到美国财政部资金告急，政府将要关门的时候，债务上限就会在最后一秒钟通过。当然，共和党为了对自己的选民有个交代，也会抛出自己的一个法案和民主党配合做交易。可以明显看出双方只是在进政治交易，不是真正你死我活的党争。

这一次援助乌克兰的议案也是一样。共和党的选民大多是懂王川普“美国优先”的信奉者。反对将大笔资金用于援助乌克兰。共和党也就利用党选民的这一诉求迟迟拖渡援助议案不让通过，但实际上，共和党金主很多也是国防承包商，他们是非常期望从这笔军援款中分到一杯羹的。所以，共和党的政客打心底里是非常愿意通过对乌援助案的。照例，他们拿出了自己的一个法案和民主党做交易，就是让联邦政府出钱修筑德克萨斯州与墨西边境的隔离墙。阻止非法移民进入美国的，这是共和党选民非常在意的一个问题。但是，这些非法移民在即将到来的美国大选中，很大一部分支持移民政策宽松的民主党。所以，在拜登民调不佳的情况下，民主党非常需要大批的非法移民来扩充自己的票仓。这个条件他们无法答应。所以这笔政治交易就一直无法达成，对乌克兰的援助案，一直拖了很久。当然另一方面的原因也是很有可能的。中国的俗语说，升米恩，斗米仇。援助给的太顺利、太大手大脚，会让乌克兰政府认为是理所当然的，也就是鼓励他们要想拿到援助得好好打。

就在美国国会卡住援助的这一段时间，乌克兰的战场形势可以说急转直下，丢失阿卡迪夫卡要塞城市之后，乌克兰的战场形式还在持续恶化。俄军还在不断的突破。特别是前两天，俄军用长途奔袭的方式占领了乌军在阿卡迪夫卡后方第二道防线的重要节点——奥季列列城在古时间的战斗，反映出乌军的一线部队过于疲劳，士气低落，已经完全没有在当初巴赫穆特战役中和俄军死磕的意志了。如果这个时候再美国再不通过这六百亿军援法案给乌军打打气，后果真的是不堪设想。

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Let's talk more about international affairs. As we said earlier, the U.S. Congress passed a $60 billion aid bill for Ukraine. He also said that the money was not really to enable Ukraine to defeat Russia, but to keep the war going, just like the war on terror, which was fought in Afghanistan for two decades before everything came back to square one, the Taliban took over Afghanistan, and the U.S. troops withdrew. Although it seems that everything has gone back to square one, the major interest groups in the United States have made a lot of money. From the military-industrial complex to the various defense contractors to senior officials and corporations that are inextricably linked to the war effort. American taxpayers, of course, bear the cost. Of course, because of the hegemony of the dollar, it is actually the ordinary people of the world who bear this economic cost. And Afghan civilians are paying the price of war casualties.

The same is true of the current war in Ukraine. And from the current situation, it is becoming more and more obvious that even the so-called partisan disputes in the United States are just theatrics. All politicians, whether he is a Democrat or a Republican, they are actually in cahoots. They actually have a common interest.

This kind of party struggle under the two-party system in the United States is obviously different from the party struggle in the court of the autocratic dynasty in ancient Chinese history. Party rivalry in dynastic China, even in the more relaxed political atmosphere of the Song Dynasty, was aimed at ending the political life of the opponent. In the Ming Dynasty between the Donglin party and the eunuchs, sometimes to achieve the physical elimination of opponents for the purpose. It means you have to die or die. The party struggle between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the United States, in addition to the Democratic Party's political pursuit and blocking of Trump, some of the meaning of the ancient Chinese party struggle, most of the other times are just acting.

It can be said that many people believe that the American parliamentary democracy has the ability to correct mistakes is just a beautiful fairy tale, of course, can not be completely denied. In a democratic framework, it is theoretically possible for a third party to rise to power, such as the election of Juan Milley, Argentina's populist president. But the odds of that in an American democracy are very, very small.

One between the two parties is called confrontation. An example of this is raising the national debt ceiling. The national debt now exceeds $30 trillion. According to the design of the US system, Congress holds the financial power, and the issuance of debt must not exceed the debt ceiling set by Congress. But the U.S. government is exerting influence around the world, aid to Ukraine, aid to Israel, aid to Taiwan. At home, it's about social welfare to buy votes from the bottom. The Democrats also need to spend a lot of money, so that the size of the national debt must continue to expand. Once the debt ceiling is hit, lawmakers from both parties will come out to put on a show. Generally, if the Democrats want to pass, the Republicans must firmly hold the Congress and not let it pass. But every time the U.S. Treasury runs out of money and the government threatens to shut down, the debt ceiling is passed at the last second. Of course, the Republicans, in order to answer to their own voters, will also offer a bill of their own to make a deal with the Democrats. It is clear that the two sides are only engaged in political trading, not a real life-and-death party struggle.

The same is true of the aid bill for Ukraine. Republican voters are mostly believers who understand Trump's "America First" message. Oppose spending large sums of money on aid to Ukraine. Republicans have used the appeal of their own voters to delay the passage of the aid bill, but in fact, many of the Republican donors are also defense contractors, and they are eager to get a share of the military aid. Therefore, Republican politicians are deeply willing to pass the aid bill to Ukraine. As usual, they came up with a bill of their own to make a deal with Democrats that would have the federal government pay for a wall along the Texas-Mexico border. Preventing illegal immigrants from entering the United States is a big issue for Republican voters. However, these illegal immigrants in the upcoming US election, a large proportion of support for the liberal immigration policy of the Democratic Party. So, with Biden polling poorly, the Democrats desperately need a large influx of illegal immigrants to bolster their base. It's a condition they can't agree to. So the political deal has never been done, and the aid to Ukraine has dragged on for a long time. Of course, the other side is also possible. As the Chinese saying goes, "To raise the mien, fight the enemy of the rice." Giving aid too smoothly, too lavishly, will make the Ukrainian government take it for granted, encouraging them to fight hard if they want it.

During this period of time when the US Congress is stuck on aid, the battlefield situation in Ukraine can be said to have turned sharply, and after the loss of the fortress city of Arkadivka, the battlefield situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate. The Russians are still breaking through. In particular, two days ago, the Russian army occupied the important node of the Ukrainian army in the second line of defense behind Arkadivka - Otilleh city in ancient time, reflecting that the Ukrainian army's front-line troops were too tired and demoralized, and had completely lost the will to fight with the Russian army in the original battle of Bahmut. If the United States does not pass this 60 billion military aid bill to boost the Ukrainian army at this time, the consequences are really unimaginable.