接着聊俄乌战争新形势：俄军出奇制胜，国防部长调整，新武器投入战场

昨天说到俄军以攻为守之后，仍然死磕乌军经营了十四年的乌东堡垒地带，进行绞肉机般的作战。似乎不太符合兵法上的主奇制胜。不过这也是比较典型的俄式战争的打法，以消耗战拖垮对手。历史上，俄国人打败拿破仑和希特勒都是靠的这种战略，特别是著名的斯大林格勒战役，死守不退。经过长达半年多的巷战绞肉，最终打破了希特勒控制高加索油田的战略，让战争的天平开始向苏联一方倾斜。应该说，在现在这场战争中，有那么一段时间，胜利的天平已经向乌方倾斜了，因为普京开战准备做得并不充分。他原先的设想是靠闪电战直取基辅，达成城下之盟就收手。应该说，乌军在战争初期顶住了俄军的进攻，使西方国家看到了获胜的希望，开始加大军事援助。乌克兰也以举国之力进行了总动员。这一时期，乌军的人力规模要超过俄军。所以乌军在俄军防御空虚的哈尔科夫地区打出了一次出其不意的反攻，收复大片领土。

但是，俄罗斯又故技重演，利用瓦格纳雇佣军招募的囚犯军团猛攻巴赫穆特，再次进入消耗战和绞肉战的模式。同时，俄军也利用这段时期重新调整军事部署，修筑苏洛维金防线并在国内进行部分动员。巴赫穆特战役结束之后，就如同斯大林格勒战役结束之后的苏德战场一样，人力优势已经不在乌方那一边了，胜利的天平开始向俄罗斯倾斜。而俄军又将一种新的武器投入战场，也就是山寨版的JDAM滑翔制导炸弹，也就是加装了滑翔套件的普通炸弹。这种炸弹虽然外形粗糙，精度也无法与西方武器相比，但威力巨大，数量充足。所以在俄乌战争的这种消耗战中，西方武器虽然精度高，但造价也高，在这种消耗战中根本发挥不了任何作用。在阿夫迪夫卡战役中，FAB系列的滑翔制导炸弹被大规模使用，使得俄军不必再像巴赫穆特战役那样进行残酷的绞肉战。阿夫迪夫卡要塞城市比巴赫穆特要坚固得多，但坚持的时间反而更短。

这一次，俄罗斯再次发动哈尔科夫攻势，就有一些出奇制胜的因素。因为经过长期的消耗战，乌军原本就不占优势的人力，在漫长的战线上已经捉襟见肘了。此时新开一条战线对乌军来说肯定是雪上加霜，而俄军近几天的攻势也比较快。虽然和开战初期的步进速度无法相比，但仗已经打了两年，乌军也有所防备和准备。目前战斗主要集中在一个叫做乌尔昌斯克的边境城市，而俄军依然大量使用FAB系列滑翔制导炸弹的方式进行攻城。而这座城市并没有像乌东的那些城市那样进行要塞化的建设，根本扛不住这样的轰炸。两天不到，乌军就失守了将近一半城区。好在有一条河流从城中穿城而过，形成了天然的防线。

说完了战场上的情况，俄罗斯内部也发生了一些有趣的变化。一个就是从开战以来位置一直很稳的国防部长绍伊古被免去了职务。其实早在不久前已经有迹象，他的副手国防部副部长铁木尔就因贪污的罪名被逮捕，并以俄罗斯特有的方式——坐在笼子里接受法庭的审判，这应该是绍伊古失去信任的明确信号。不过现在看，绍伊古从国防部长的职务被解除之后，并不是被罢免的，而是被提升到了俄罗斯国安委，从官衔来看还是升了。当然绍伊古也并非什么军事方面的专家，他的老本行是土木工程。所以战争期间，他也没有太多参与作战指挥，主要是管理后勤和军工生产。而战争期间，这个职位可以说是相当肥的，也许是普京觉得他已经贪得足够多了，所以明升暗降，将他提到一个职位更高，但没有什么实权的岗位上。然后派来一名经济学家担任新的国防部长，这其中的意义应该就是要清洗国防部的旧势力，赶走一批蛀虫，提高俄罗斯战争机器的运转效率。也许在普京看来，这场战争不打到乌克兰彻底屈服，是不能停下来的。

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昨天说到俄军短攻为守之后，仍然死磕乌军经营了十四年的乌东堡垒地带进行绞肉机般的作战。似乎不太符合兵法上的主奇制胜。不过这也是比较典型的俄式战争的打法，以消耗战拖垮对手是不是是吧？来啊好，历史上，俄国人打败拿破仑和希特勒都是靠的这种战略，特别是著名的斯大林格勒战役，死守不退。经过长达半年多的巷战绞肉，最终打破了希特勒控制高加索油田的战略，让战争的天平开始向俄方倾斜。应该说，在这场战争中，有那么一段时间，胜利的天平已经向乌方倾斜了，就是普亲的开战准备做的并不充分。他想着原先的设想是靠闪电战直取基辅，坚定城下之盟就赶快收手。应该说，而在战争初期，顶住了俄军的进攻，使西方国家看到了获胜的希望，开始加大补助，修加军事援助。而乌克兰也以举国之力而以进行了总动员。这一时期，乌军的人力规模是要超过俄军的。所以在俄军防御空虚的哈尔科夫地区打出了一次出人出其不意的反攻，收复大片领土。但是这时候，俄罗斯又开始了故技重演，利用瓦格纳雇佣军招募的囚犯军团猛攻巴赫穆特再次进入消耗战和绞肉战的模式。不仅也利用这段时期重新调整军事部署，修筑苏洛维津防线在国内进行部分动员穆特战役结束之后，就如同斯大林战格勒战役结束之后的苏德战场一样，人力优势已经不在对手那一边了。胜利的天平开始向俄罗斯倾斜。而在这之后，俄罗斯又将一种新的武器投入战场，也就是山寨版的华捷达姆滑翔制导炸弹，也就是加装了滑翔套件的普通炸弹。而AB五百RAB一千五。虽然外形粗糙，精度也不是西方武器箱体可以比拟的，但是威力巨大，数量充足。所以在这种俄乌战争这种消耗战当中，西方武器的优势根本就发挥不出来。西方武器虽然精度高，但是造价也高。在这种消八号战中，根本发挥不了任何作用。在阿夫迪夫卡战役当中，华强制导炸弹被大规模的使用，使得俄军不必再像巴赫穆特那样进行残酷的绞肉战。而阿夫迪夫卡制座比巴赫穆特要坚固的多的要塞城市所坚持的时间，反而还不如比他小的多的巴赫穆特。而这一次，俄罗斯发动再次发动哈尔科夫工序，这有一些出奇制胜的因素了。因为经过长期的经过前段时间的消耗，战，人力上本来不占优势的乌军防守，已有的漫长战线已经捉襟见肘了。此时新开一条战线对我军来说肯定是雪上加霜，而这几天的攻势，俄军的进展也是比较快的。虽然和开战初期的步进速度无法相比，毕竟仗已经打了两年了，防备在空军乌方也是有所准备的。呃，现在战斗主要集中在一个叫做乌尔仓斯克的边境尝试，而俄军依然使用依然大量使用FAB滑翔制导炸弹的方式进行攻城。而这座城市并没有向乌东的那些城市进行要塞化的建炸，根本扛不起这样的轰炸。两天不到，乌军就失守了将近一半的一区。好在有一条河流从城中穿城而过，形成了天然的防线。说完了战场上的情况，俄罗斯内部也发生了一些有趣的变化。一个就是从开战突击一直位置做的很稳的国防部长邵伊股被免去了职务。其实早在上个近期，他的副手国防部副部长铁木尔就以贪污的罪名被逮捕了，并且以俄罗斯特有的方式羞辱式的坐在笼子里接受法庭的审判，这应该是明确的说明邵伊谷失去了及信任的信号。不过现在来看，邵伊谷从国防部长的职务被解除之后，并不是被罢免的，而且把他提升到了俄罗斯国安委，从关键来看还是声闹。当然战争期间其实邵伊谷也并非什呃军事方面的专材。他的老本行是土木工程。所以战争期间，他也没有太多的参与作战指挥，主要是管理后勤和军工生产。而在坐在战争期间，可以说是相当肥的北差，也许是金觉得他已经贪的足够多了。所以明升暗降将他提到一个关键更高，但没有什么流水的岗位上。然后派来一个叫一名经济学家，掌管成为新的国防部长，这其中的意义应该就是要清洗国防部的旧势力，赶走一批蛀虫，提高俄罗斯战争机器的运转效率。也许在普京看来，这场战争不打到乌克兰，彻底屈服，是不能停下来的，这边有没有？

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Yesterday, I said that the Russian army, after attacking and defending, is still fighting like a meat grinder in the eastern Ukrainian fortress area, which the Ukrainian army has operated for 14 years. It doesn't seem to fit the strategy of winning. But this is also a more typical Russian way of fighting a war of attrition to wear down the opponent. Historically, the Russians defeated Napoleon and Hitler by this strategy, especially in the famous Battle of Stalingrad. After more than half a year of street fighting, Hitler finally broke the strategy of controlling the Caucasus oil fields, so that the balance of the war began to tilt to the Soviet side. It should be said that in the current war, there was a time when the balance of victory was tilted in Ukraine's favor, because Putin was not sufficiently prepared for the war. His original vision was to take Kiev by blitzkrieg, reach an alliance and then stop. It should be said that at the beginning of the war, the Ukrainian army withstood the attack of the Russian army, so that the Western countries saw the hope of victory and began to increase military aid. Ukraine also mobilized with national strength. During this period, the size of the Ukrainian army was larger than that of the Russian army. So the Ukrainian army launched a surprise counterattack in the poorly defended Kharkiv region, reclaiming large areas of territory.

However, the Russians did the same thing again, using legions of prisoners recruited by Wagner's mercenaries to storm Bahmut and once again enter the mode of attrition and mince fighting. At the same time, the Russian army also used this period to re-adjust its military deployment, build the Sulovikin Line and carry out partial mobilization in the country. After the Battle of Bahmut, as in the Soviet-German battlefield after the Battle of Stalingrad, the human advantage was no longer on the Ukrainian side, and the balance of victory began to shift in Russia's favor. And the Russian army has put a new weapon into the battlefield, that is, a copycat version of the JDAM glide guided bomb, that is, a normal bomb with a glide kit. The bombs, though crude in shape and not as accurate as Western weapons, were powerful and plentiful. Therefore, in the war of attrition of the Russia-Ukraine war, Western weapons, although highly accurate, are also high cost, and can not play any role in this war of attrition. In the Battle of Avdivka, the glide-guided bombs of the FAB series were used on a large scale, so that the Russian army did not have to engage in brutal ground battles as in the Battle of Bahmut. The fortress city of Avdivka was much stronger than Bahmut, but it held out for a shorter time.

This time, Russia once again launched the Kharkiv offensive, there are some surprising factors to win. Because after a long war of attrition, the Ukrainian army's manpower, which was not dominant, has been stretched thin on the long front. The opening of a new front at this time is certainly worse for the Ukrainian army, and the Russian army has been relatively fast in recent days. Although the pace of progress can not be compared with the early stage of the war, but the war has been fought for two years, the Ukrainian army is also prepared and prepared. The current fighting is mainly concentrated in a border city called Urchansk, and the Russian army is still heavily using the FAB series of glide guided bombs to attack the city. The city was not fortified like other cities in Udong and could not withstand such bombing. Within two days, the Ukrainian army had lost nearly half of the city. Fortunately, a river runs through the city, forming a natural defense line.

Having said that on the battlefield, there are also some interesting changes taking place inside Russia. One was the sacking of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, who had been in a stable position since the war began. In fact, the recent arrest of his deputy, Deputy Defense Minister Timur, on corruption charges and sitting in a cage for trial in a uniquely Russian manner should be a clear sign of Shoigu's loss of trust. But now look, Shoigu was removed from the post of defense minister, not dismissed, but was promoted to the Russian National Security Committee, from the official title point of view or promoted. Of course, Shoigu is not a military expert, his old job is civil engineering. Therefore, during the war, he did not participate much in combat command, mainly managing logistics and military production. During the war, the position was arguably quite lucrative, and perhaps Putin felt that he had been greedy enough, so he was promoted and demoted to a higher position with little real power. Then the appointment of a new defense minister, an economist, was supposed to purge the ministry of Defense of old forces, get rid of a bunch of worms, and improve the efficiency of the Russian war machine. Perhaps in Putin's view, this war cannot be stopped until Ukraine is completely surrendered.