We've all heard the phrase "Just the luck of the draw" thrown around in sporting parlance. It's often used to brush off a bit of bad luck, or even good fortune. But let's take a little bit of a closer look at what that means for us here in the Steemit @aflfantasy Classic League.

What I have below is a way to attribute a value to just how lucky (or unlucky) we all are over the course of the season.

So how does it work? At the end of each round, I rank everyone's score in order from highest to lowest, then each score is attributed a Win Value based on the number of teams you potentially could have beaten, for example if you top scored, you would beat 19 out of 19 possible opponents, so you would be credited with 1 win. If you bottom score, you'd beat 0 out of 19, so you would get 0 wins. If you have the 5th highest score, you'd beat 15 out of 19 opponents, so you'd get 15/19ths of a win (0.789). Once each team is allocated their Win Value, we can then compare
the Win Value (or statistically probable estimated wins) to the Actual Wins. A score where Actual Wins > Expected Wins is a Lucky Score. A score where Actual Wins < Expected Wins is an Unlucky Score.

So how did we all fare in Week 15?

@Dahmsy79 successfully protected the bounty again this week by top scoring, so he gets 1 Expected Win, and @nzl19500 bottomed out for the lowest score, with 0 expected wins. The rest of us fall somewhere in between.

The graphic below, shows us how we all went comparatively this week (highlighted in yellow), as well as the overall Luck Ladder (highlighted in green)

So as we can see, @Mmeow is back on top, with a differential of +2.428 more wins than expected, BraphB and Medhurst's Minions are also both right up there, tied on +1.947 more wins than expected.

At the other end of the scale, Playing for Draft Picks (@shesasaint) is still sitting on the bottom with 2.632 less wins than expected and beginning to open up a gap as the Unluckiest over Piston-Broke (me) and Steemit Huskies (@vicspics) with -1.868 & -1.685 respectively.

So that's the luck of the draw for Round 15. I'll update this each week through the course of the season so we can all keep track of how we're travelling...

If you find this even remotely interesting, leave me a comment. If there's anything I could explain better, let me know.

Cheers,
Sparkesy