Resistance Crushed: Official End Of Bear Market
In a spectacular display of self-fulfilling prophecy, technical analysis traders waited until the last second to pull the trigger and call an end to the bear market today.
Of course, when we look back in history, everyone will say the bear market ended on December 15 when Bitcoin bottomed at $3200. Hindsight 20/20 amirite?
The Bears were looking for any excuse to short the price of Bitcoin. Now those shorts have been squeezed hard. Resistance line after resistance line got shattered with only small hiccups in the way. November 14th became the crux for all these virtual barriers.
Today, the last major resistance line was broken, and it's become very obvious that some of the bears just became bull run players.
Called it.
I predicted this behavior five days ago:
bitcoin-keeps-bouncing-off-moore-s-law-support
It feels good to have bought in preemptively.
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | $200 | $400 | $800 | $1600 | $3200 | $6400 |
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3467 | $3733 | $4000 | $4267 | $4533 | $4800 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5067 | $5333 | $5600 | $5867 | $6133 | $6400 |
Still, with a baseline value of $4267 at the end of April, now is still a pretty safe time to buy in, assuming my Moore's Law speculation is accurate. I think we have to assume that many traders will become quite overexcited by the prospect of a newly emergent bull run.
I dunno man. When I cared much about investing, I was a fundamentals guy, not a TA guy. Charts are pretty, and momentum can make you money, but absent fundamental value, it's all Madoff to me.
I see that Steem is a better mechanism for exchanging value than BTC, and am not unaware of various issues Steem has, including distribution (which may be perhaps notorious). BTC has AXA issues, and when it last mooned became essentially untransferrable - except at exorbitant cost, extracted by extortionate miners.
I bet there are not a few that would have traded out that could not only because miners wouldn't let them out.
That being said, the dog wags the tail. That's all I'll say about alts.
Thanks!
I lean more toward fundamentals as well. TA is for gamblers. What's the point of investing your money in a product if you don't even believe in what it can do?
That being said I do find TA to be somewhat interesting. Not interesting enough to actually get good at it, but interesting nonetheless.
The waters get murky with my whole theory that Bitcoin value is consistently doubling every year. Does that fall under the umbrella of fundamentals or TA? Of all the TAs I talked to, none of them saw these bounces off that support line coming. Everyone was like "Bitcoin to 2K then rally". I felt like the only person saying that literally couldn't happen given the history of Bitcoin.
Regardless, crypto is unique, as all these open source projects are linked together. The fundamentals of Bitcoin intertwine with Steem and every other project out there.
Any investment strategy that simply looks at charts is TA, even though it might be your own personal variety. Fundamentals involve the business arguments for an against an investment vehicle growing in value. Your theory is TA, just not the kind of TA most chartists are doing, which is why you were alone in your predictions.
I don't see an argument from fundamentals that supports BTC growing in value. It's already obsolete in terms of technology. Bizarre and essentially unworkable mechanisms like Lightning are being implemented to try to enable it to be useful as a money. It's already been shown to be susceptible to extortion by miners in control of what gets written into blocks when it was mooning and transaction costs hit ~25%, or miners wouldn't include your transactions into the blocks. AXA controls Blockstream, and is headed by the long running chairman of the Bilderberg group, perhaps the most sinister of bankster organization in the world today. All of these things are each deadly to BTC fundamentals on their own, and BTC is suffering from all of them - and more.
Steem is a far better currency, with no transfer fees at all, vastly superior scalability not dependent on networks of conmen to maybe be able to transact in it, three second block times, and many more better attributes than BTC, while still being subject to the weaknesses all cryptos suffer, as well as it's own particular foibles, such as the lingering aroma from the initial ninjamine and the distribution imbalance that perpetuates.
Regardless of these details, cryptocurrencies aren't actually investments today, because they're utterly vulnerable to a wide variety of mechanisms that can simply erase their value, prevent you from accessing them, or transacting with them, which makes them completely unsuitable for investment for anyone exercising prudence.
None of that means you are guaranteed to lose money. Even in the Bernie Madoff scheme some folks made out like bandits - literally. Pyramid schemes like Madoff ran to the tune of $50B aren't investments either. All these things are speculation. Investors depend on prudence to protect their investments, and none of these things are able to be prudent investments.
You can still make a lot of money by speculation. It's just not really investing. It's gambling or worse. With all cryptos you're gambling that censors aren't going to simply cut you off from the network on which you must link to transact in cryptos, amongst other issues that make them imprudent investments.
To date, I have not even looked at speculating in the crypto markets, for various reasons, and particularly that fraud via novel mechanisms potentiated by the fact that these are all digital mechanisms is endemic and extracts ~10% of all crypto value.
Gold bullion I get delivered into my hand is a prudent investment, and the notorious and rampant suppression of the price by market makers creates a fundamental argument that it has a far higher potential value than necessary to purchase it today. Conditions requisite to end the market manipulation remain unclear at present, but certainly exist, and I expect them to come about sooner or later - as soon as the big players feel they have accumulated enough and start allowing the price to rise so that they can realize capital gains on the massive, ongoing investments they're making in the physical commodity.
No investment is without risk, and not all risks are traditional factors. Market manipulation is such a risk, but every risk potentiates capital gains. It is for this reason that investors need to do due diligence, and work out the advisability of any actual investment. That's a lot more work than pretty charting, and requires substantial understanding of market forces affecting investment vehicles.
I can only advise you to consider business fundamentals, as absent real reasons for a vehicle to have value, you're reduced to gambling in the hopes of winning. Investment is having a plan to profit, an entirely different undertaking.
Bitcoin can 100x on brand recognition alone. They've got a bigger community with far more experience and technical knowledge.
That being said I haven't been a big fan of Bitcoin for quite some time.
I'm in a unique position that allows me to work short hours and dedicate my spare time toward learning to code in this space. Even if everything goes belly-up I'll still retain all my knowledge gained with regard to JavaScript and the like.
As far as I'm concerned, I'm risking very little for a very large reward.
You are not wrong that a lot of money will be made with BTC, and your personal situation may honestly justify doing so. My circumstances differ. Honestly, I don't have a great deal of interest in making a lot of money. Having some became a great impediment to enjoying my life, and was a factor in some of the most disturbing events in my life.
It took a while for me to sidestep finance as a means of happiness. Perhaps for you it is the right way to go. Whatever you do, I hope it profits you in the most meaningful currency to you.
the most meaningful currency to me is trust.
I'm pretty happy with that one time that I listened to you 5 days ago...
hahahaha
!dramatoken
lol
You've got DRAMA. You are going to be a Whale!
To view or trade
DRAMAgo to steem-engine.com.You can keep listening to me until the next Chinese New Year.
Year of the Boar is my year.
Id be happy with a $6400 price for bitcoin at the end of the year. A calm and stable btc price could make for a fun and exciting alt season this summer.
Posted using Partiko Android
My thoughts are the same! $6k will be tough for bitcoin but I think other coins will have more space to run and could lead to altcoin rally that take BTC dominance down to 40%.
Posted using Partiko iOS
Okay so Ill take my bike for a ride to Austria, the next BTC ATM, tomorrow? ^^
Will be curious to see how high the spike may be if you are correct on your hypothesis.
Ya I have been saying we were out the bear market and in a bull cycle since mid Dec. if we broke under our uptrend we had since mid December it would of made it the longest bear market but by starting the uptrend in December we did not have the longest bear market. I have been calling it since Jan. When everyone thinks something is going to happen the markets do the exact opposite. To many were expecting one last lower low before going up. We should be at 6k pretty soon in my opinion.
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I assume the same thing as well. Figure we'll bounce off $6k and maybe go back down to $5k before it picks back up again.
The crazy thing about these spikes is that they happen so quickly. Feels like you either have to anticipate it preemptively or be running a trading bot.
I personally had been saying dollar cost avg since Jan that way if it goes up you don’t miss out and if it goes down you can buy more cheaper. Instead of putting everything in all at once.
I knew there was a strong possibility we might see a lower low but not likely and if we did it wouldn’t of been much lower than the last low in Dec. which was why I was saying dollar cost avg now for awhile now.
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Expecting more gains at the end of tax season (April 15)...