Jupiler League Asian Handicap Statistics
The Belgian Jupiler League is 1/3 into regular season right now. I always take a step back during the international breaks and take the time to go through all the numbers and the personal statistics I keep. Even though this is not my favorite thing to do, it is important to stay ahead. Just going with the flow during the season without putting in some extra work can get you behind at some point which I want to avoid. Today I will be ranking all teams based on the excel file I keep during the season.
Overall standings
Highest Rated Teams
Every team gets an overall score in the paper for each match. I always keep these scores as a reference in my stats sheet. Thses are the average numbers so far this seasonSeason Rankings (week 1-10)
| Ranking | Team | Home | Away | Overall Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Racing Genk | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| 02 | Antwerp | 6.60 | 6.80 | 6.70 |
| 03 | Club Brugge | 6.80 | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| 04 | Sint-Truiden | 6.20 | 6.40 | 6.30 |
| 05 | Standard | 6.40 | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| 06 | Anderlecht | 6.00 | 6.20 | 6.10 |
| 07 | Oostende | 6.00 | 5.80 | 5.90 |
| 08 | Cercle Brugge | 6.20 | 5.60 | 5.90 |
| 09 | Waasland | 5.60 | 5.80 | 5.70 |
| 10 | AA Gent | 5.33 | 6.25 | 5.70 |
| 11 | Charlroi | 5.80 | 5.60 | 5.70 |
| 12 | Kortrijk | 5.50 | 5.33 | 5.40 |
| 13 | Zulte-Waregem | 5.80 | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| 14 | Eupen | 5.60 | 5.00 | 5.30 |
| 15 | Lokeren | 4.60 | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| 16 | Moeskroen | 5.00 | 4.80 | 4.90 |
The most noteworthy teams inside the top 10 are Antwerp (2nd) | Cercle Brugge (8th) |Waasland (9th)
Looking at the scores from the last 4 weeks after last international break, the standing would be the following.
Rankings (week 6-10)
| Ranking | Team | Home | Away | Overall Score | change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Racing Genk | 7.50 | 7.00 | 7.25 | +0.25 |
| 05 | Standard | 7.00 | 6.50 | 6.75 | +0.55 |
| 02 | Antwerp | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | -0.20 |
| 03 | Club Brugge | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | -0.10 |
| 04 | Sint-Truiden | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | +0.20 |
| 09 | Waasland | 5.33 | 7.00 | 5.75 | +0.05 |
| 07 | Oostende | 5.50 | 6.00 | 5.75 | -0.15 |
| 14 | Eupen | 6.00 | 5.50 | 5.75 | +0.45 |
| 11 | Charlroi | 6.00 | 5.33 | 5.50 | -0.20 |
| 06 | Anderlecht | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | -0.60 |
| 08 | Cercle Brugge | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | -0.40 |
| 12 | Kortrijk | 5.00 | 5.33 | 5.25 | -0.15 |
| 16 | Moeskroen | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.10 |
| 10 | AA Gent | 4.67 | 6.00 | 5.00 | -0.70 |
| 15 | Lokeren | 4.50 | 5.50 | 5.00 | +0.00 |
| 13 | Zulte-Waregem | 5.50 | 4.00 | 4.75 | -0.95 |
Form is one of the key factors when handicapping these matches for me in order to find some good value. As the season progresses, the lines tend to get set based on overall season performance and shorter term changes in form can produce some good betting spots. Some of the teams manage to stay under the radar while in other cases there might be a big pattern reversal. The 2 teams I'm closely watching for this are Racing Genk and Zulte-Waregem.
- Racing Genk had a great run and excellent form but are starting to get really heavy handicaps to cover. They are the team with the most matches so far this season and their style of play will be much harder once winter hits and pitches become worse.
- Zulte-Waregem are in something of a freak bad run similar to last season. When this streak was broken last season in week 22 with a win against Mechelen they went on a 4.5W-2L-1.5P run against the asian handicap against the opening line good for a 26.13% ROI. I will be looking out for a similar pattern this season.
Most Profitable Teams (vs asian handicap)
None of the websites out there keep track of the statistics against the asian handicap lines. Since they are the numbers that have to be beaten in order to make serious profit on the betting market I have been keeping these stats myself for the past 10 years. So far the most profitable teams when betting them blind 1 Unit this season.
Season Rankings Opening Asian Lines
| Rank | Team | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 01 | Racing Genk | +3.480 |
| 02 | Stvv | +3.450 |
| 03 | Cercle Brugge | +2.690 |
| 04 | Waasland | +2.620 |
| 05 | Antwerp | +2.600 |
| 06 | Club Brugge | +2.370 |
| 07 | Anderlecht | +0.960 |
| 08 | Kortrijk | -0.250 |
| 09 | Standard | -1.420 |
| 10 | Oostende | -1.615 |
| 11 | Lokeren | -1.810 |
| 12 | Charleroi | -1.950 |
| 13 | Eupen | -1.955 |
| 14 | AA Gent | -2.975 |
| 15 | Moeskroen | -3.535 |
| 16 | Zulte-Waregem | -5.980 |
This is pretty much what betting is about and how to make a profit. Identfying and predicting the teams that are underrated and those that are overrated. Bet on the underrated teams and oppose the overrated teams. Also knowing when to get in early or late in the week can make a difference in resulst.
Season Rankings Closing Asian Lines
| Rank | Team | Profit | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Racing Genk | +3.580 | +0.100 |
| 02 | Waasland | +3.465 | +0.845 |
| 03 | Club Brugge | +2.965 | +0.595 |
| 04 | Stvv | +2.810 | -0.640 |
| 05 | Antwerp | +2.635 | +0.035 |
| 06 | Cercle Brugge | +2.051 | -0.639 |
| 07 | Anderlecht | +1.320 | +0.360 |
| 08 | Kortrijk | -0.060 | +0.190 |
| 09 | Standard | -1.000 | +0.420 |
| 10 | Charleroi | -1.730 | +0.200 |
| 11 | Oostende | -2.360 | -0.745 |
| 12 | Lokeren | -2.540 | -0.730 |
| 13 | Eupen | -2.640 | -0.685 |
| 14 | Moeskroen | -2.640 | +0.895 |
| 15 | AA Gent | -2.880 | +0.095 |
| 16 | Zulte-Waregem | -6.140 | -0.160 |
These kinds of stats often give a completely different picture compared to the regular standings. When it comes down to betting and beating the asian handicap, Waasland Beveren who are near the botton of the regular standings are nearly as strong as Racing Genk when it comes down to beating the asian handicaps they are given. Very few people actually look at betting from this point of view.
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