Bitcoin: Thinking Inside the Boxes

I'm a big fan of finding different ways to look at something. Maybe it's because I'm a lefty and am more prone to divergent thinking, who knows.

When it comes to charts, it's commonly understood that finding trends and patterns is easier when you zoom out.

The trend line on the Logarithmic chart holds up like an impassible barrier, and the price seems to have some kind of magnetic attraction to it.

I decided to box in areas of Bitcoin's long-term chart, coloured according to the price's relation to the trend line. Blue for when the price stays near the line, Green for when the price is moving up and away from the line, and Red for when the price is being pulled toward the line.

The first thing I noticed was that the latest green box was smaller than the green box in 2013. Of course, the price is moving toward the lower trend line a lot faster this time as well.

It seems as though the last bull run was cut short compared to 2013's, with a price of $100,000 being more in line on a logarithmic scale. Instead, we saw Bitcoin fizzle just before hitting $20,000 at the end of 2017.

Was this the work of Bitcoin futures, or perhaps some other forces at work? Or perhaps 2013 went higher than it should have and 2017 was normal?

Regardless of why Bitcoin had a much smaller run in 2017 vs 2013, it's clear to me that we are likely moving into another blue box, at least if the bottom trend line holds this year.

The last blue box saw a gradual price increase of 4x before the price pulled away from the trend line. Events seem to be happening faster for this cycle, so who knows what's in store for the rest of 2018 and 2019...

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Thank you for reading. Shares and comments are always welcome.