Cryptos hit BOTTOM today. Time to buy HUGELY and HODL as we go to the MOON

in #bitcoin6 years ago (edited)

I'll start with an apology. You were suckered in with a cheap click BAIT headline, that has no basis in fact and can't be proven by any data.  Sorry about that.

But I'm on a tirade about all the HODL wing nuts that keep posting about HODLing to the MOON.  

Those were the folks I wanted to sucker in and try to get them to look at one chart. Maybe one chart would be enough to make them stop and think, before they waste any more STEEM bandwidth on HODL to the MOON crap posts.

Global market cap chart below is simple cut/paste from coinmarketcap.com

What can you see on this chart?

Market cap dropped by $150 Billion from Jan 7th to Jan 11th and then recovered by $100 Billion in the next 24 hours.

Was that blip upwards the end of the big January drop? NO !! The SLIDE continued.

Market cap dropped by $300 Billion from Jan 13th to Jan 17th and then recovered by $150 Billion in the next 48 hours.

Was that blip upwards the end of the big January drop? NO !! The SLIDE continued.

Market cap dropped by $200 Billion from Jan 28th to Feb 2nd and then recovered by $60 Billion in the next 24 hours.

Was that blip upwards the end of the big January drop? NO !! The SLIDE continued.

We have had another $60 Billion price BLIP upwards in the last 24 hours.  Does that prove that the bottom is in, and we are at the end of the Q1'18 crypto price drop?

Editors note: that was a rhetorical question, readers are left to answer on their own.


Summary that I believe you should take away from this simple chart and the comments above:

1) no one knows if the bottom has been reached. Maybe yes, maybe no. No amount of triangles and TA BS is going to be useful in determining if the bottom has been reached. If you spend your time reading the triangle TA BS and the Elliot Wave triangle nonsense (from you know who, the Ragin Cajun Haejin dude), make sure you realize it is 100% useless as a prediction tool, it is for entertainment value only. Which to be fair to Haejin, he does disclaim all his posts as useless except for entertainment.

2) your eyeballs are more capable of discerning the pattern in the attached chart, than any other instrument.  The pattern in the chart is simple. Do you see it? Does a trend jump out at you from the line on the chart? Data shows that $800 Billion market cap has been whittled down to $350 Billion over the last month, and there is no evidence WHATSOEVER in just this price chart, that suggests the month long trend has been broken.

3) No one knows with certainty where the crypto market is going to be one month from now.  But an unbiased observer has to admit that chart shows that the chances of another $150 Billion drop down to $200 Billion; is at least as likely as a $150 Billion increase up to $500 Billion.

And for the final, ta da, wrap-up; please explain on the basis of this available factual data, why you are HODLing to the MOON, as the price has been on a month long slide that shows no signs of abating? And WTF does that phrase even mean?

If the chances of up in the next month are the same as the chances of down in the next month, why not just take your gambling funds to Las Vegas and choose your favorite color, Red or Black?

If your answer on why you are HODLing forever, no matter what the price data is showing, because you BELIEVE in the long-term value of cryptos, then COOL.  If you are right you can get rich without a lot of work.  But please explain to me, just one more time, why HODLing forever and ever and no matter what the price data is showing is the best path to your dream of getting to the MOON without doing any work. 

STEEM On!!

DaveB

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The answer , dave, is that there is a small, but real chance that when the big money comes in it will happen so quickly and be so huge that the tether and usd holders will have missed the boat.. ;)

Agreed. That is a possible outcome. So you probably didn't want to go to 100% fiat at $12K. Maybe just put a bit of your firepower away, and leave some in BTC to cover the case you mention.

I think you are likely correct that the next upleg could be so quick that no one can catch the rocket.

And with my track record, that probably dooms the market to the slowest rate of increase in 2018 as BTC has ever seen. LOL

lol.. yes.. also i didnt mention.. HODLing is seriously less stress and usually better in the long run.. unless you have balls of steel and 'spidey sense' ;-) AND if everyone HODLs we go to the moon faster.. strong hands win in the end!

@echowhale team swimming by with your upvotes
@echowhale
@echosupport
@babyechowhale
@journeyoflife
@carterx7 will be doing the same shortly

Reviewed and upvoted.

I don't think HODLing is the best strategy, but i do think it is better than HODLing from 20k to 6k and then selling.

Clearly. If you held all the way to $6K, selling then would have been a bad decision

If I did believe in BTC, which I do not, it still doesn't make sense to try catching a falling safe. That's a good way to get killed.

You wait til it hits the ground and bounces, before you move in.

At least that's what I would do with an asset that had intrinsic value.

Bitcoin in my estimation is already obsolete. I think it's probably going to $1200 or so.

Technically obsolete for sure. But because of its first mover advantage, it could still be the top coin for another year, before its technical aging behavior starts to show up in its price.

Tends to be true that market leaders can sustain their first place position, for along time after the point when they truly still deserved to be in first place.

Those who have HODLed from the beginning are still sitting pretty. HODLing is a good strategy because it prevents you from selling just because the coins are all in a downslide. If you don't HODL, it is easy to lose your bag of coins. Always HODL

Were you being intentionally ironic with your close? Or you don't even realize that the only way to lose all your coins is to hold until zero?

You can't lose all your coins if you take some of them off the day and go into crypto in times of greatest uncertainty on trend

hahah click bait alert lol :D

agree with you sir @davebrewer Very knowledgeable post and useful information in btc.
really encouraged me your post.
followed + upvoted + resteem

I agree 100%.

Crypto currency is the worst 'field' for wanna be experts who base their predictions on emotion.

I forgot that angle. It "feels" to me like the force is going to take the market higher. Yeah .... maybe ....

You should really take at look at the last three years charts.
Feb 10 perhaps as late as Feb 13 - the trend should turn up and sustain at least for a while. If not then we likely are in a big bust year, but if past is a predictor 2 out of the last four years, the day has been right at Feb 10.

Maybe. Stopped clocks are also right at least twice a day. So yeah .... maybe.

Yes Sir!!

Step 1. Find a project you believe in.
Step 2. Invest, don't trade!

  • Trading costs fees, fees create negative expectation, If you're in a bull market

Step 3. ????
Step 3. Profit!!!!!

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