Bitcoin neural network analysis week 27/2018: Correction completed?

in #bitcoin6 years ago (edited)

Analysis of past week:
For the past week the network saw a nice growth, but a pullback towards the end of the week. We saw the mid-week rise, but there was no significant pullback after. So the network did not provide good advice this week.

I am comparing three strategies, first hold fiat and make a small profit elsewhere, hold bitcoin, or follow the network predictions. Since I started documenting my predictions on the blockchain these strategies compare as

Fiat with a weekly profit of 0.5%: 12525.39$ (up 0.5 %)
Holding BTC: 6385.82$ (down 3.4%)
Network strategy: 7405.91$ (up 0.5%)
Starting capital: 11497.40$

The fiat strategy is up since most of the documented time has been a bear market, but the neural network has gained an advantage over btc.

Forecast:
download (20).png
Red areas are predicted below the current price, blue/yellow areas indicate the expected passive growth, green areas are better than the expected growth. The vertical line is one week into the future and its size provides the prediction variance. The network prediction is smooth as the random noise is filtered out.

The network finally sees good times ahead of us, with good gains expected over the coming month. But the prediction for the current week remains very uncertain. There may be another correction, back to the levels of last week, or we may already start rising this week. Averaged the network expects no major move this week with a target of 6383.95$.

For the next week the network slightly prefers fiat over bitcoin. So my strategy for the coming week is once again to hold fiat. But be aware that the long term trend is more significant and the network also does not predict losses for the week. The network tries to optimise a small gain in an uncertain situation and is going high risk this week. The lower risk strategy is to use one-month predictions where btc is a clear buy at the current price.

This post is not financial advice! I am testing the potential to use neural networks for price predictions and am documenting my results on the blockchain to have provable public results. All prices are based on 0:00 UTC for consistency!

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@frdem3dot0 Thank you for not using bidbots on this post and also using the #nobidbot tag!

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