WEX. rising
Good news for crypto! BTC-e became WEX and is now live for trading. All users have been reimbursed at 61% of their funds and received debt tokens for the remaining 39% of their original funds. These debt tokens can be traded currently at about 50% of their face value. For instance 1 BTC is worth around 2 BTCET (debt token denominating 1 BTC each). Since people try to escape the platform the current crypto prices are inflated. BTC is trading at a surplus of around 6% compared to Bitstamp. If you trust the plan to buyback the tokens executed by WEX and you trust in the future development of cryptos, now you can get them at a discount.
1 BTCET = 1 BTC * 0,55 = 3980 USD * 0,55 = 2189 USD
At current market prices this amounts to a discount of 40% for cryptos. Same goes for ETH, LTC, PPC, ... but no BTS and no STEEM.
The expected behaviour could be that people are relieved of receiving some of their funds back and switch the debt tokens at any price to cryptos so that they can safely move their funds to their wallets at a loss. Shortly after the prices of the debt tokens should rise relatively to their face value to reflect the real likelyhood of full reimbursement minus the opportunity costs involved in holding the position. At the same time price of crypos should come on par with the competition. This opens up a relatively safe strategy for profit.
Lets assume we expect to be able to switch the debt tokens back at lets say a 10% gain in 1 week from now.
- Lets say assume you have 3080 bitUSD
- buy 1 OPEN.BTC on Bitshares DEX
- transfer that 1 BTC to WEX
- sell it at 3980 USD
- which you can switch to 7236 USDET
- store them until the ratio USD/USDET went up 10% from 0,55 to 0,60
- switch them back to 4341 USD
- now the prices for BTC should be closer to the market price. So we will be able to buy 4,25 BTC on WEX,
- transfer them to Bitshares DEX and sell them for bitUSD.
- you should receive 3612 bitUSD
To calculate the 17% gain I had to make some assumptions. We don't know the price in 1 week so lets say BTC trades at a premium of 2% instead of 6% on WEX in about 1 week from now. OPEN.BTC on Bitshares DEX trades at a 15% discount and is likely to stay there.
Risk is relatively low and lies in the possibility of the debt tokens becoming less valuable in the short term. I assume they can be volatile, but in general weak hands tend to switch immediately what should lead to a bottom very early.
Do you have funds on BTC-e? What is your take on the situation? Am I wrong here? Let me know in the comments!
UPDATE September 19:
The token prices have been stable so far, but the prices of crypto surged to a 10% pemium over Bitstamp. At the same time the trading volume is very low around 17 million USD daily. I guess that people start to panic and want to get out.
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