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RE: At some point all the big Macro Funds will have a 1% position in Bitcoin

in #bitcoin5 years ago

All US hedge funds with greater than $150MM assets under management (AUM) are required to file quarterly statements with the SEC. Among the reporting requirements is liquidity information for each of their positions. Most funds use an assumption that they could absorb up to 10% of the daily trading volume in an asset, and calculate their effective liquidity as the total trading days it would take to sell off their entire position.
Most macro funds are not comfortable with having many illiquid positions, and a fund the size of Bridgewater could not approach anywhere close to a 1% allocation without the position being marked as extremely illiquid.

It's sort of a chicken and egg problem... markets need liquidity to attract big funds, but markets need big funds to have enough liquidity. The strong evidence of rampant manipulation on most BTC exchanges only exacerbates this problem.

Futures markets will help, but the liquidity issues still have to be resolved before we move past cash-settled futures to bitcoin-settled futures. ETF's could help, though the first approved ETFs will most likely trade in cash-settled BTC futures to approximate BTC indexation instead of actually holding bitcoin.

While eventual Wall Street adoption has been at the heart of my HODL thesis since I first started consulting for hedge funds in 2014, we are not very close to that happening, in my opinion.

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Most likely it will happen the same way that retail pushed prices to all time highs in 2017 - FOMO. One fund will dip their toes in and then another, and then another etc etc etc.

Regarding volume, keep in mind that there are also billions traded OTC every day as well, something not included in the numbers shown on public exchanges. So, the liquidity might not be as terrible as it may seem on first glance.

Regarding cash settled futures vs. physically settled, that only will hold true if you believe some other ETF will be approved besides the VanEck/CBOE proposed fund, which is physically settled. In this instance I think their name recognition, history of dealing with these things, and connections will ultimately help them get theirs through first or one of the first.

I have not been following the progress of every proposed fund. It theirs is approved first, then I will be happy to have been wrong!

These guys claim to be offering physically settled products as well, though I haven't researched them much:

https://www.investinblockchain.com/coinflex-offer-crypto-futures/

VanEck and CBOE refiled with the SEC their physically settled bitcoin ETF product:

https://www.coindesk.com/cboe-re-files-vaneck-solidx-bitcoin-etf-proposal

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