This is the longest bear market ever for Bitcoin, or is it?!
Is this really the longest bear market ever for bitcoin?
Things may not be as cut and dry as some are claiming...
Many are claiming that bitcoin is now officially in the longest bear market in it's 10 year history.
They claim this with gusto and almost with a bit of joy, like it somehow is a badge of honor to have weathered and survived the worst bitcoin had to give and yet here they are still standing.
Well I may have some bad news for them and may be about to douse some cold water on their dreams...
This isn't technically the longest bear market ever for bitcoin.
If you look at how people are measuring the bear market from 2014-2015 to get their 410 days of carnage, they are simply taking the high and measuring out to the low.
Which there was roughly 410 days between the two.
If we do the same right now and go back from the highs in late 2017, we are now 411 days from those highs.
That means this is officially the longest bear market right?
Well, not exactly.
You see, we technically made the low during this bear market about 2 months ago around $3,100 and haven't broken that low since.
(Source: https://twitter.com/TruthSpeakaSays/status/1091397211714437125)
So, technically, if we use the same criteria to measure this bear market as we did in the previous one, the bear market would technically already have ended several months ago, that is until bitcoin makes another lower low.
Which it certainly may, but it hasn't yet.
What does this mean?
Well not much really.
It's most likely just a technicality as most claiming bitcoin is now in its longest correction ever are expecting bitcoin to make a lower low within the next few months.
And, they will probably end up being right.
However, as it stands today, right now, bitcoin is not in its longest bear market ever, technically.
How's that for a dose of cold water?! :)
Stay informed my friends.
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Yeah its just all a narrative to help people feel better. What people will tell you about the 14/15 bear market as well is the feel was completely different. People back then were sure they were going to loose everything and that the space would slowly die. Theres so much more support and business built up around the industry that what back the end felt like the end, now feels just like a bear market.
Yep, I agree. Mt. Gox imploding and Silk Road going down felt like the end of bitcoin. This doesn't feel like that.
This is a healthy period of time that slowly kills all the bullshit that accumulated in the space. I think the bear market will last longer because you have more people that continue buying the dip.
The bigger the pump the more people to flush out during the dump.
Its great to see that bitcoin get redistributed from speculators to hands that understand the underlying meaning of the technology. Those strong hands will push the next pump even higher.
Once you understand why bitcoin is so different its hard to sell.
Very well said, I agree. How long did it take you to go down the rabbit hole from thinking bitcoin is the king, to thinking an altcoin will beat it out, to coming back full circle and thinking bitcoin will be king? That is the cycle most (including myself) have gone through anyways. :)
I don't know I keep moving on that circle in a 3 month pattern xD
I am personally a much bigger fan of the ability that blockchain as technology can bring on a governance level of any industry.
That's why ICOs and alts are far more interesting. The idea that leadership is done via a meritocracy base on the benefits to the ecosystem and intelligence that can be fairly measured amongst all participants in the system on 100% transparent system is the big thing here.
Bitcoin is competition to the global banking system, but
alt coins, once they better designed and faster are competition to democracy and capitalism.
Right now I am with the alts in my rabbit whole journey. :D
Ah, so you have a ways to go still. :)
Though there will certainly be room for several different kinds.
I actually think bitcoin's biggest draw is as digital gold currently. Though at some point it might make a run at the payment sector as well. At the end of the day these things are just software, so what one can do others could also feasible end up doing as well.
Which is one of the main reasons I have circled back to bitcoin on my journey.
There are always ways to go. The argument against bitcoin is that usually big disruptive technology is never implemented by the first mover, as there is too much room for learning. Usually what happens is that a smaller system that can more easily adjust learns from the mistakes the first mover did and also makes use of the more prepared public.
That said, social consensus so far has resulted in the best decisions from all coins, and if any new technology comes to be, bitcoin can always adopt it.
But I´d say Bitcoin will be the digital gold and probably have the biggest market share, but it won't be the most interesting coin or that one that will have the greatest impact on society.
I agree. One of the fabric/platform chains will. It's just tough to tell which one that might be, it likely doesn't even exist yet.
Due to inflation and market growing sideways. It seems we are in the long run for a bear market.
2017 put a dent on how high the market can grow.
It looks an eternity as we wish to see positive growth
Keep on postin
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Yes, this is just a comparison between the current bear market and the longest one ever in bitcoin's history.
😩😂😩😂😩
Sure feels like the longest bear market ever
Haha it sure does. Were you around for any of the others?
It’s almost as tho these ppl have decided to disgard the last 8yrs of btc history lol...
Yep, they pick and choose whichever facts support their narrative.
This is exactly what I was thinking. How can they possibly make this claim when they don't know if Bitcoin has already bottomed?
Still needs to make one more lower low before it will officially be the longest yet. Though I think they will end up being right as I think we have another plunge left.
I don't think there will be a new low, but I certainly won't be surprised if there is one.
What price are you thinking might get hit?
Keep in mind the next BTC halvening is very close: 25 May 2020. That halvening will have a dramatic effect on the selling pressure originating from miners on the exchanges.
One might say it will CUT IT IN HALF... I thank you. I'll be here all week! :)
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Thanks.
The contrarian in me makes me think it could be a good sign the bottom is in as many are so negative that they believe the run downward will continue. I think we will find out soon enough.
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The contrarian in you may be right!
Hey dude - nice to see you in The Man Cave :)