Why bitcoin is sliding today, and why we may be getting close to a bottom

in #bitcoin6 years ago

Whenever bitcoin is sliding, everyone likes to look for a reason as to why, myself included.

However, there may not always be a reason or sometimes there may be a multitude of reasons.

Basically, people tend to look for some form of comfort in times of extreme emotional stress, which is what often happens as people watch their hard earned dollars quickly slipping away.

Putting all of that aside, there does seem to be some real emotional reasons why bitcoin is sliding currently.

First you have the seasonality aspect.

What I mean by that is that over the last 3 years, and 4 out of the last 5, bitcoin has made lows in the month of January.

This is likely due to the Chinese Lunar New Year and also possibly some tax related selling.

For a little more on the first topic, check this out:
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@jrcornel/february-16th-is-a-very-important-date-for-the-cryptocurrency-markets

And this:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@jrcornel/does-this-kind-of-trading-activity-look-familiar-to-anyone-else

Secondly, you have major governments around the world coming down somewhat hard on cryptocurrency exchanges and users.

Think South Korea, Japan, and now India all talking about tighter regulations within their respective countries towards cryptocurrencies.

More about that can be read here:
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@jrcornel/looks-like-no-crypto-trading-ban-in-south-korea-after-all-crisis-averted

It seems every couple of days there is some new negative headline in the press about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. That represents a much different environment than what we had a few months ago.

Finally, and likely most importantly, you have a bunch of FUD (Fear Uncertainty and Doubt) about what exactly has been going on with Tether.

After watching it's two major banks dissolve their relationship, as well as their auditor hightailing it out, and an investigation by the CFTC, combined with cries from the public about suspicious trading activity, there is certainly a fair amount of smoke around tether and bitfinex.

And as you know, where there is smoke, there is usually fire.

Add all that together and you get an environment that is just waiting for the next piece of negative news to drop prices even lower.

Here's the thing though, this won't last forever, in fact I would venture to say we are getting close to a bottom.

For one, we are getting closer and closer to the Chinese Lunar New Year. The exact date is February 16th, but historically most of the bitcoin selling related to that tends to dry up a few weeks before the exact day.

Also, every day that goes by gets us one day closer to people getting their tax returns back here in the US. When people who felt they missed out late last year start getting their tax returns, where do you think they may put some of that money?

Also, a lot of the chart technicians have been pointing to a move down to around $8k for some time now. They also indicate that is likely a bottoming out point as price finally finds significant support.

Also, even if Tether ends up blowing up and things are as bad as some people think, we are talking about a $2 billion dollar market compared with a $500 billion total market cap. Yes it is a big deal, but in the grand scheme of things, it's not that big of a deal.

And finally, if you look at the trading activity on Bitfinex you can see that the BTCUSD shorts now exceed BTCUSD margin longs.

This is the first time I have seen that... well ever.

This is a good indicator that many people are finally getting on the same side of the trade, which is what you often see before major market reversals.

Given all that information we may be getting close to finally seeing some green on our screens again.

Could all of this be setting up to create the perfect storm/buying opportunity?

No way of knowing for sure, but I feel much better buying here than I did buying on the way up at this same exact price.

**Full disclosure, I bought more BTC a few minutes ago around $8,900 to add to the others bought around $10,700. I will look to continue to add if prices continue to dip.

Stay informed my friends.

Image Source:

https://vinevillemethodist.com/2017/10/06/why/

Follow me: @jrcornel

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thanks for the conversations, im out to set up my telescope. i heard the moon is around the corner tonight

HELP ME MY BITCOIN VALUE DYING

Really the only thing you can do (if you still believe) is HODL. Maybe take these next few days/weeks to shut down your computer and not check the price and get out and do something outdoors, likely you will feel much better a few weeks from now. :)

sage advice.
Let the hands do their jive.
Accumulate on the way down.
Reflect on which platforms have long term value based on 1) what is a blockchain 2) Why does the world need a blockchain for this purpose?

Stay strong it will grow back! Check the link below bitcoin has "Died" 249 times lol. Just adding this because I'm seeing it all over the news AGAIN!
https://99bitcoins.com/obituary-stats/

FUD! 😂😂😂

Buy the FUD!

Great info. It's always interesting to hear other reasons to price movements. I study the charts along with Elliott Waves. I talk moving averages and other stuff in my latest post:

IMPORTANT COIN UPDATES - BTC, XVG, TRON https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@benkalashnikov/important-coin-updates-btc-xvg-tron

Screen Shot 2018-02-01 at 20.35.45.png

I actually just put a little more into Bitcoin! I agree that there's a huge seasonality aspect. The dip BTC saw last January was the lowest point it hit all year. My running hypothesis is that cryptos run counter to the January effect, which is when stocks tend to rally after the December selloffs you see. I think it's plausible that people are putting more money into equities from crypto coupled with - to your point - their fear of cryptos being investigated or the market being squashed.

Of course, even better news is that STEEM is holding up against the downtrends pretty well!

Yes, that might have something to do with the Binance exchange adding steem earlier today. ;)

I wouldn't read into too much. This might just be a healthy pull back.

"1 step back, 2 steps forward" or more like 10 steps back, 20 steps forward. Hopefully we are on that 10th step!

I agree, it’s been bad news so far this year but look to the positive. Exchanges are accepting new sign ups. They have increased staff and scaled back end servers. They are also signing up more and more new users. New apps are signing up to crypto every day. Apps like Robin Hood with millions of subscribers are making crypto available to their user base. Although this in itself won’t move the price, when it does move there are now millions more people able to jump on, accelerating the price increases and lifting it ever higher!!

Yep yep yep. Nicely put!

Bitcoin itself is also fundamentally weak right now. The only significant improvements to the protocol in at least 2 years was segwit. Lighting is finally coming out but it's still a big if.

All seem to be good points I like seeing that it's been a mostly consistent trend over the last 5 January's

GOING GREEN ALL THE WAY!

Does it have to get angry first before it can green?

If that is the feeling inside then, YES!

Aah the original hulk lou ferrigno :)

Voting power is low, I have been up-voting so much this week lol. I think at full power I am at 0.12cents .. Not much but I am getting there. Wherever that may be.

What is voting power? And do you get more of it if you vote more? Thanks

You can "power up" your steem. The more steem power the higher price of your upvoting.

Thank you for all this information jrcornel!
I'm a convinced cryptocurreny lover, and Bitcoin is one currency I'm buying at the moment.

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