You And I Are Not So Different

Please take your money out. What you're doing is madness. I have met a lot of gamblers who have taken your attitude that they can kill themselves if it doesnt work out because they're already depressed. This is an unbelievably common attitude. It rarely ends well. Chances are you wont, you'll just be miserable and possibly turn to drugs.

But your equation makes no sense. Bitcoin has just rocketed up 25x in 2 years. It is valued at 100 billion dollars, whilst in the midst of hard forks, stuck transactions, and mutliple regulatory risks, and a failed ETF. Sure, we might go to 25k in this run. But we might do exactly what we did after the last 2 bull runs, and drop 90% in a short period of time. And this time, maybe enough people get burned that it's outlawed in most countries.

So you're best case equation for the near term is 5x your money, worst case 10% of your money.

Your financial goals are to have 5 million dollars, to live your life as you wish. That's $200k a year with the 4% rule, plus a 5 million dollar retirement blowout. If you cant be happy with that, you never will, so it's a good goal.

Now you say you already have 1 million.

Lets try a different investment strategy.

lets put 500k into a mixture of historically strong market trackers, aimed at the sectors you like most. You may have to endure a market crash, like in 2008, but so long as you dont sell, the economy will always recover(failing armegedon, in which case this is all meaningless, anyway), so we can assume a 6 -10% yearly return on this, depending on risk, and a bit of luck.

lets take the other 500k and split it into 3 chunks of 166k

Put the first chunk into a local property you can manage. Use what should be a clear 6-8% income from rent, if you manage it, as your passive income. That's 10k+ a year income before you lift a finger. And the property will act as a savings account which should beat inflation.

lets take a 166k and put it into your passion. a business or idea you've always wanted to pursue which could pay off big time. Or maybe someone elses passion. you must have ideas for high risk/high reward local businesses that you could try your hand at. Aim for a high book value proposition, where you buy equipment or property which act as a store of the capital, rather than something which speculatively consumes your money.

the other 166k. put it into bitcoin. Hell, do some research, and hit a couple other cryptos if you want. look for high return. but put the bulk in bitcoin.

Lets establish a time frame. Lets say 8 years. You'll be 43, still very young, and fit enough to live as you please. Also, as you admit, bitcoin might take 5 years to see the gains you wish, anyway.

Now lets do the math. On your 500k, you're making, lets say 8% a year. That's not impossible on that quantity of money, with some diligence. After 8 years of reinvesting the interest, that's almost $100000.

Your flat? Well, if you dont spend the income from rent, and assuming a historical value growth, it amounts to almost $350k

Your business? Well, who knows. Maybe it tanks, maybe you only make back your asset sales. But maybe it does a bitcoin. Maybe you get lucky. Lets say you do. lets say you make 3x your investment. Thats almost 500k

Now, the bitcoin. Well, lets assume you're right, and it goes up 10x from here. Thats $1.6 million.

All together now... You've turned your 1 million into $3.4 million. But, the important bit, you've exposes yourself to a fraction of the risk.

In one scenario, yous stand to gain 9 million, but lose 900k. In the second, you stand to gain only 3.4 million, but you can only really lose 300k(bitcoin, and business venture) The other assets, although the may have ups and downs, have such intrinsic value, it would take an economic apocalypse to end them. You cant lose so long as you dont sell them.

So, if your goal is to actually have 5 million one day, and live the life you want, the fastest way there is to follow the second plan. The fastest way to guarantee youll never have it, and be forced to actually deal with suicide, is to gamble on bitcoin. I say that as a believer in bitcoin. but it does have risks which could drive the price to zero. That's what makes it such a harsh gamble.

You are just 8 years away from making 3.4 million, if bitcoin meets your expectations. With that 3.4 million, you could pull in an eternal income of over 100k, while beating inflation on your underlying. Compound that for just another 8 years and you would be vanishingly close to 5 million. And at no point did you risk ruination.