BITCOIN BTC Detailed January 16 Technical Analysis - Possible BEAR 8.5K-10K Scenario

BTC Flirts with near the 0.5 Fib level

BTC approaches a critical support zone near the 0.5 fib level which must hold, otherwise we can fall between 8.5k and 10k regins.

Historically, BTC has not closed below the 55 EMA on the daily chart since July and September, and only by a small amount which got rejected within a day. But now, we clearly shatter through the 55 EMA and within 36 hours, unless there is a massive spike to above the 55 EMA above $13.5K zones, we will successfully close below the 55 EMA.

Other supporting theories of a bearish scenario is a typical 1:1 extension ABC zig zag elliot wave can be formed. Currently we stand at a 61.8 extension only, which doesn't seem likely. An ascending triangle is first to be tested.

There is the possibility of a major bounce due to a descending triangle forming and we make way to over $13,200. Though I do not see this as a likely case as the majority of signs point to a bearish view.

Always be cautious, take high probability trades, plan entries and exits, stick to high reward low risk R:R setups. Good luck traders

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Please always remember we trade using probability and not all trades are winners. We manage our risk with stop losses and try to win over time. Those that don't understand this, and expect only to having winning trades, will always lose money over time.

The ultimate goal is to help the crypto community because I think there's a lack of these type of videos. I want to share everything I've learned because knowledge is only power if passed on. These are educational videos intended to teach how to think through thought-out rationalization.

DISCLAIMER:

I'm not a financial adviser, nor am I giving you any tips on when to buy, sell, etc. I'm simply stating my opinions and what I personally look for. Those that follow my trades blindly and don't understand risk management, will always lose over time. I manage risk differently. Not all trades are winners. We manage our risk with stop losses and win over time. Even if we've entered at a similar price, I can micro manage my risk, by shedding, adding, reducing, etc, but those calls aren't made. Therefore despite entering near the same price, I may come out well ahead while you may take a loss, even if we exit at the same price when the market goes against my call. Remember, I always profit OVER TIME, and am not focused on winning every single trade. As long as we win more than we lose over time. I want to be very clear so you understand the outcomes will always be different even if we take the same trade. I MANAGE RISK and see this game as a probability. Therefore, be forewarned.