Well, from reading your two-piece critique on the influence of halvings on bitcoin prices, I almost get the impression you have been reading some of my little write-ups. Thank you, I'm honoured.

You are of course correct in pointing out that 2 halvings do not carry any statistical significance. Unfortunately, we don't have the time to wait for 10 or 20 more halvings, assuming the statistical relevance of halvings has then been increased to acceptable levels. Now is the time when you can still buy relatively cheap.

And also on your chart, I see prices starting to rise approximately 1 year before the halving, as they have started rising now, climbing towards the third halving. You can call that a coïncidence, and maybe it is, but maybe it isn't. That the price rises are not completely equal in time and size, so be it.

In addtion, the fact that you are convinced that halvings should have zero impact on price, doesn't mean others don't act on it - illogical as that may be. As an analyst I'm investigating the possibilities of cycles, I try to look for patterns that may become useful. And yes, estimates of future outcomes based on those patterns are then made. That you are not impressed is fine. But that's what you do when analyzing. Simply buying some bitcoin every week/month as long as the price is above the 233 weekly moving average will no doubt be a very profitable strategy and you will not have to think, investigate, analyze anything anymore.