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RE: How good are you objectively at trading Bitcoin? I've made a statistical benchmark to answer that
I first bought bitcoin Feb 14, 2017 and stopped once it crossed the $4200 level. Average price I paid is about $2000.
If you had bought daily, you average price would have been 3154.77 usd. Seems like you did a good job :)
Had you bought everything at once, you would have paid 991.74 usd per BTC.
I bought less as time moved on. Once it reached significantly past $4000, I no longer felt comfortable buying. Funny thing is that Tone Vays predicted the same thing I did last year on my blog using a different method. I suspect we could see prices below $3000 again, but it probably won't last that long.
We ran into a wall last December in a first attempt at mass adoption, but the scaling issue wouldn't let it happen. $100 tx fees won't work as a currency (medium of exchange). So next time we have to watch whether the technology is ready yet, or the same thing will happen. Eventually the technology will be ready to replace national fiat, or national fiat will become crypto. If the latter happens with the recentralization of crypto, we will have a digital panopticon for probably a generation.
I also personally, think that the price may go much lower still. Snagging out some sub 3K BTC just before it bounces up again would of course be a dream scenario, but if we are lower for a while, DCA will probably also be decent for getting some cheaper BTC. If the price for instance only dropped to 4K, one could miss out waiting on the sidelines.
Yes, your latter idea that crypto becomes a national, digital panopticon is fuel for nightmares.
Let's hope for (and support) freer alternatives.