Bitshares BTS/$ analysis update 19/07/2018

Over the last year, I have been introduced to Elliott Wave Theory and have learned to use it in trading cryptos. More recently, I have looked into the more specific "Fibonacci Pinball" method described by Avi Gilburt's group. I have never subscribed to any of their services, but they have an Education section of their website, which includes an introduction to their Fibonacci Pinball method as well as a more detailed presentation on the topic.
I have decided to practice their method and use this blog to document my analysis for my own purposes.

I am not a financial advisor. Do not consider this to be financial advice. I am posting it here for my own practice and future review only.

So I am making a habit of posting on BTS, but I am finding the price action to be pretty interesting. Last time I was projecting the current rise to end at about $0.286, but price continued to rise without much of a correction, making me revise my analysis.

Now most would probably consider the current price action to have put in wave iii.

This is certainly possible, and would result in me downgrading my target slightly to $0.263. However, Fibonacci pinball methodology uses two base cases where subwave 1 of a third wave should hit either the 0.382 or 0.618 extension of wave 1. In this case neither of those targets completed five waves followed by a correction (green boxes).

So for the sake of argument, I will outline a scenario where the entire recent rise actually made up circled 1 of iii. If this is the case, then we should see a dip into the $0.19-0.195 range, and ultimately a new target for this impulse of $0.323.

This scenario jives we’ll with the bigger picture if we consider the April/May high to be a higher order wave 1. Then the current impulse would complete wave (i), the first subwave of the higher order third wave, and (i) would end right around the 0.618 extension of the higher order wave 1.