There is no need to be pessimistic about these 5 points, China will eventually win the trade war

At noon on the 4th, US time, US Vice President Burns gave a long speech on the US government's China policy at the Hudson Institute in Washington, DC (the US Embassy in China has the original text, you can go and see it yourself). At home, many people are talking about it. Compared with the Iron Curtain speech that Churchill opened the Cold War in 1946, it is said that China and the United States should start a comprehensive new cold war. The domestic mood is very pessimistic. I feel that China is in good luck and will have a hard time eating it later.

At the same time, "China's economy 2018 - For if the dusking day declined" written by Murph during the National Day was mainly to analyze China's economy with Ruidalio's debt cycle theory. A good person changed the title to "If the evening of the empire came," it caused a panic.

I feel too pessimistic, not even pessimistic. It is undeniable that China's economic development has a lucrative component, such as a good international environment, but more is the result of China's (people's) struggle, not the US charity. The external environment may have an impact, but it is not critical. It is essential that China (the people) compete for their own strength.

Throughout history, the environment in which Western Australia, France, France, Japan, and the United States have risen is more complicated than the situation facing China today. It is difficult, but it is still rising. Do we really think that China is not as good as human beings?

Before March of this year, the mood of our people was basically a "powerful" state of excitement. Many people may not remember or are unwilling to admit that they had such a powerful emotion at that time. The box office of the movie War Wolf is more than 5 billion. After the ZTE chip incident, the Sino-US trade war began, and the public sentiment began to reverse completely, turning to the extremely pessimistic state of China's "no".

Now the external environment has indeed become more complicated and more difficult, but we should also see that the main positive factors in China that promote China's development are still there, and some even become better.

I am writing this long article, not to write an article that is "awesome", but to explain it realistically. Now everyone is too pessimistic. We should not have a "savage" self-respect, nor should we have a "failed" arrogance. We must be clear and objective to look at the facts.

This article will analyze the confidence that China will continue to develop rapidly through five aspects, and then talk about the pseudo-free trade concept advocated by the United States with its own interests as the center.

1. The people are very hardworking

2. Government responsibility

3. The economy has a cycle

4. The market is huge

5. Great competitive advantage

6. Pseudo-free trade

7. Have information and courage to overcome difficulties

Enter the body section below.

01. The people are very hardworking

Most people in the country have less in-depth contact with people from all over the world, and there may be no concept of how hard the Chinese people are diligent. We have no comparison, so we don't understand the gap. The modern economy is the knowledge economy. The most important resource of the knowledge economy is human resources, and the level of hard work is very important in human resources. Total labor, labor participation rate, and average working hours are all important indicators of diligence.

The US National Bureau of Statistics has published a set of data on labor participation rates in countries around the world. China’s total labor force ranks first in the world, and labor participation rate ranks first in the world. The total amount of labor is the sum of the working hours of all the people working, and the labor participation rate is the percentage of the people who participate in the work.

The labor participation rate of the countries in the world, the area of the circle represents the total amount of labor, China ranks first; the horizontal axis represents the labor participation rate, and China reaches 76%, which is also the world's number one. According to World Bank statistics, the average labor participation rate in the world is 56.2%, 64% in high-income countries, 65.3% in middle-income countries, and 75.2% in China.

If the total amount of labor accounts for the total amount of the population, then according to the average working hours of the year, some scholars estimate that China is nearly 2,200 hours. The average annual working time of the OECD member countries in 2017 is 1759 hours. Among them, Germany has the lowest, only 1356 hours; the Japanese who are known for their hard work are only working 1729 hours a year.

Let me give you a few examples. There are news reports from friends, relatives, and friends.

A few years ago, the Chinese went to Spain to open a shoe factory. They worked day and night to work overtime, and the Spaniards were used to the slow work. Of course, they competed with the Chinese and finally went to burn the Chinese shoe factory.

The French Labor Inspectorate has issued a notice prohibiting Chinese shops from opening on Sundays, otherwise, a fine will be imposed. Because France “bans shops from opening on Sundays”, it is also forbidden to open stores late at night.

This is typical of being lazy and not letting others work hard. This is one of the reasons why many Western countries cannot understand the high competitiveness of Chinese products. Then they say that China loses money, but Chinese products are really making money.

This year, my wife went to Greece for a business trip. I went back to Greece and went to work at 90 o'clock in the morning. I didn't go to work in the office first. I went to eat early, drink coffee, chat with lunch, and rest after lunch. After working for an hour or two in the afternoon, I got off work. At 9 o'clock in the evening, the store was basically closed.

My classmates were stationed in Africa by Huawei. He said that the wages of Africans are all daily. One worker is working today, and may not come to work tomorrow. The company will find someone again. African workers never save money. If they don't have money, they will find a short-term job. They will work for three or five days a week. If they have a little money, they will not do it. They will go out and wait for the job. This cycle.

My cousin opened a processing factory in Indonesia. He was most impressed. First, Indonesia's infrastructure is very poor. Second, Indonesian workers are inefficient and poorly organized. Chinese workers can finish their work in one day. Indonesians have three days. And do not want to work overtime, add money and do not want to work overtime.

Others, such as Australia's one-kilometer road repair for half a year and so on, I think everyone has seen a lot.

The hard work of the Chinese is the primary factor that gives me the most confidence in China, so this is the most written. Although hard work may not be able to get rich, as a country, if the following conditions are met, the possibility of getting rich is very great.

Hard work is a characteristic of East Asians. After the Second World War, new countries have entered the developed countries. Apart from Saudi Arabia and other resource-rich countries, others are in the East Asian Han culture circle, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore. We have some reason to believe that China can also enter the ranks of developed countries.

Professor Chen Zhiwu once wrote a book, "Why are Chinese people hardworking but not wealthy?" It is true that our hard work has not reached the welfare standards of the West. However, the current situation has indeed improved. Just to give an example, the time and procedures for starting a business mentioned in the book, in recent years, everyone’s measures of “three certificates in one” and “most time to run once” have been seen. I think Professor Chen should improve a lot if he does statistics again.

Rome was not built in one day. The Chinese are now too anxious. Of course, this is a good thing, but we must also pay attention to the negative effects. We recognize that the management of a country with a population of 1.4 billion, the cost of the system is indeed relatively high, but after a century of war, China is more aware of the value of stability, in all fairness, the development of pollution problems, food problems, medical problems, housing prices, etc. It is heart-rending, but it is better to be a slave to the country, better than the concession in the land, better than fighting, better than guns.

Governing corruption, eight regulations, Sunshine wages are all reducing the country's management costs, creating a more equitable and safe development environment for the society, allowing the value created by labor to give more to the labor force and make the distribution more reasonable.

02 Government has responsibility

Compared with countries with income levels, the Chinese government's ability is top-notch. Compared with developed countries, the Chinese government's ability is indeed lacking. It can even be said that the gap is relatively large. The main reason is that the gap in human resources level is restricted by China's average human resource level, but compared with other domestic fields, the ability of civil servants is almost one of the top.

This picture is the "2018 World Competitiveness Report" issued by the International Institute of Management (IMD) in Lausanne, Switzerland. Government efficiency is an important part of national competitiveness. The "Report" shows that China's "Government Policy Adaptability" is the fifth in the world. The decision-making (British) ability is the seventh in the world, the “policy stability” is the 13th in the world, the murder rate is the 14th lowest in the world, and the “social cohesion” is the 16th in the world.

This "Report" has no Chinese version until now, and I have come out of the English version. So don't worry if China is self-sealing. Should be a more reliable third-party evaluation. Even if the evaluation is biased, even if the maximum deviation is 5-10, the efficiency of our government is still very high. Is it different from everyone's intuition? Competitiveness is to be compared. Even if Xueba feels that he has done a lot of wrong things, there is still no, but it is still a schoolmaster.

This is the same as the level of technology and manufacturing. China cannot create the world's top chips in one step. China's human resources cannot be used to reach the world's top level. This is all subject to the development stage. However, I believe that with the time, the level of human resources in China will gradually increase and the capacity of the Chinese government (civil servants) will gradually increase.

I know that many people do not agree with this. If you disagree, do you think your mind is open? What is open? It is the ability to accommodate different perspectives and keep your ideas changing. If you think that no matter what I say, it is impossible to change your opinion, then you can't say that you are open.

The United States is mainly engaged in a trade war against China. Even Vice President Peng Si published an iron curtain speech called "New Cold War." What does this mean? Explain that China is doing right now and is a threat to the United States.

What was the most criticized by the Chinese government in the past few years? It is corruption. As a person working in the system, as far as I can see and hear, the corruption has been greatly improved. The public funds can be said to be extinct and the private use of the bus is also managed. A few years ago, can you imagine that the change will be so fast? Anyway, a few years ago, I was absolutely not confident.

There are many similar things, the agricultural tax is abolished, there are subsidies, and the second child is also released. Although it is a bit late, in terms of technology, the papers published in international journals in China have grown rapidly in recent years. Although there is also a certain amount of water, it does not hide. The medical reform was changed a little bit, although it is still not perfect.

Many people take the high welfare ratio of developed countries. In fact, China's economy has not yet developed to such a high level. One stage is only suitable for the welfare level of one stage. Before the welfare society, everyone can look at Venezuela. (Of course, China’s current welfare level is behind the economic level)

Some of the issues that everyone has discussed afterward seem to be incompetent and inefficient. But whoever goes up can't change it immediately. As a person who gives advice to the government within the system, the intuitive feeling is that the government can basically be good at it. Many people can blame the government, but if you ask him to mention constructive suggestions and measures that are operational, most people will not be able to mention it.

On the contrary, blindly and even blindly obeying some of the legal policies formulated by public opinion, there have been many problems , such as over-protection of minors who have committed crimes. As a result, the current school bullying has caused public anger; the implementation of the circular textbook policy is not effective; listen to public opinion and establish stock market blows. Mechanisms, when soliciting opinions, there are no vigilance problems on the Internet. After implementation, there are problems and reopening; primary school at three o'clock, quality education, the independent entrance examination for the college entrance examination, and so on. As long as you care about public opinion, you must remember that these are the highest voices of the year.

What is the most popular article in recent days? You certainly can't think of it, but you may have seen it. It is "the strategy of teasing, thinking hard", and many senior intellectuals, doctors, and professors are all forwarded in the circle of friends. I clicked in and saw that there was no such thing as a reliable story from the beginning to the end of a rich conspiracy theory. No way, the Chinese now love to read this kind of article, which also shows the true level of understanding of the Chinese people. Those who love to read such articles are the ones who have the biggest voice on the Internet. This explains what you can think for yourself.

If you compare the government with the scientific research, the people in the government say it is: the government you want to do quantum computers, and the government officials are the researchers who study quantum computers. It is easier said than done. Scientists are technological innovations, and the government is institutional innovation. The difficulty is not lower than that of scientific research.

It is difficult to understand the difficulty of management without being in the bureau. Let's reflect on the difficulty of changing and developing habits. For example, many people want to read books, but how many people really develop the habit of reading books? If we change our habits so hard, let alone change the habits of a government organization? It’s hard to go to heaven, only a little bit of change.

I have written an article before, you can directly click to read "The best rhythm of social development is the small step to run micro-reforms - on the huge drawbacks of fierce social change ."

Even if you are not a civil servant, you should recognize several civil servants. I think everyone should have a sense of their own for the busyness of civil servants. Now that the civil servants are five plus two and white plus black, everyone can look at the government office building and often work overtime. The Standing Committee of the Provincial Party Committee can open from 2 pm to 2 am. Although many are ineffective, there will still be some efficiency increase, for example, many of the certifications are much more efficient, right? Hard work to help the poor is still effective, and many policies are still useful.

I think everyone should agree. From the central government to the local government, officials want to do things well, but in many cases, they are limited to resistance or ability. But what can you do if you change your personal status?

Some people will definitely say that it is necessary to change the system, the system will not change, and the substitution will be useless. Then you can think about it, how many countries have changed the system smoothly and peacefully? In a few countries, after the system is changed, the economy will develop rapidly, and all kinds of problems can be solved quickly. Anyway, I didn't think of anyone.

03 Economic cycle

I saw a paragraph on the Internet. There was an economist in the Soviet Union called Kondratiev. At that time, the Soviet Union gave a topic to prove that the economic crisis would lead to the demise of capitalism. As a result, the goods were studied for more than two hundred years. The data draws a conclusion that the economy operates in a cyclical form, and the cycle he discovers is called the Kondratyev cycle. The implication is that if it is a market economy, the economic crisis will come out sooner or later and will not perish. The Soviet authorities were furious and sent the goods to Siberia for mining. The Nobel Prize was originally intended to give him results. He couldn’t find anyone to know.

I hope that China's experts will have more Kondratiev, and there are fewer "three comprehensively beyond the United States" Hu Angang and other "excellent" experts.

The above economic cycle is the Kangbo cycle. Not to mention economic and financial experts, as long as you are a little about financial news, you should have heard of the Kangbo cycle. At least you should know that the market economy has a cycle.

It’s just that the Campo cycle is 50 years (it’s really long to make people collapse). In 1860, Jugella said that the cycle is 10 years (I guess Marx used this), and Kuznets said that the cycle (building cycle) is 20 years. Schumpeter said that it is a short cycle of 3 years, a medium 10 years, and a length of 50 years.

Market economy cycle standards, lengths, and lengths are diverse, but basically agree that as long as it is a market economy, there will inevitably be a cycle. The basis of the economic cycle is human nature. People do not see coffins without tears, do not hit the south wall and do not look back. People's desires and greed cannot be self-contained. If the economy goes out of business and the company goes bankrupt, it will not be voluntary and it will be forced. Real estate speculation should be speculated to the subprime crisis, and stocks must be smashed out, and the world is the same. The economic crisis is to force the irrational economic behavior to end, killing unhealthy zombies, leaving healthy and active.

What does the market economy have? That is to say, if there is a peak in the economy, there will be a trough, but it will not stay in the underestimation, but will go out of the underestimation and then have an economic peak. There is certainly no cycle in the planned economy. Therefore, as long as China adheres to the market economy and persists in reform and opening up, difficulties will be overcome sooner or later. This is the law of the economic cycle. China may have difficulty adjusting in the next three to five years, but it will definitely come out and the economy will be better.

Nowadays, many Chinese people, I think, are the most concerned about the economy. They are very pessimistic. They think that Chinese pills are very troublesome in the future. They are all downhill and can never grow. This is no insight. China has not encountered a real economic cycle (economic crisis) before. However, the West has become accustomed to it. For example, the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, the negative economic growth, the unemployment rate has increased to 11% for three consecutive years. The Americans feel that the sky is going to collapse, and there is more pessimism than China. But the US economy is now very good.

Some people will say that China is not a market economy. Then I asked, then do you think China is a planned economy? Certainly not. In fact, there is a complete planned economy, but there is no complete market economy. Even if it is regarded as a beacon of the market economy by many people, the US government also interferes with the economy, right? Therefore, the market economy is a matter of degree.

So, if there is really a single standard answer to China's market economy, two options: market economy or planned economy, take a gun at your head, shoot the wrong one and shoot, which one would you choose?

If you think that China (biased) the market economy, then it will definitely go out of the trough, and now it is too pessimistic.

Many people think that if the Chinese government does not work, then the economic crisis will occur. Then the US government is very powerful. The United States has different economic crises, the Internet bubble in 2000 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008. Therefore, the economic crisis does not mean that the government's ability is weak. It may explain that our government's ability has become stronger, and there is actually an economic cycle.

Therefore, I also hope that China is really an economic crisis this time. Because of the economic crisis, it has proved that it is already a market economy, not a planned economy. It is a good sign. However, we must also respect the laws of the economic cycle. If it is clear, we must clear it, de-leverage, squeeze the bubble, and short-term pain. Don't stand it. In fact, the economic crisis has been forced out, can hold, will not let the bubble break.

04 The market is huge

2018 will be a watershed in the Sino-US economy. The Chinese consumer market is expected to enter the $6 trillion mark, surpassing the United States and becoming the world's largest consumer market. This change may be more practical than China's GDP exceeds the United States. It represents the replacement of the United States in the ultimate position of the world's industrial chain. In the future, world companies will pay more attention to China.

The consumer market is large and the pricing power is large. For example, why the US dollar can become the first international currency, one of the most important factors is that the United States is the buyer's market. For example, if I want to buy your machine or service, it must be settled in US dollars. Most goods can be replaced. You don't have to I settled in the US dollar, I bought another home? The currency pricing, pricing is the most important.

How unlikely is China to be isolated by the world economy? I saw a data. In 2017, China’s import volume was 1.84 trillion US dollars. What is the concept? There are only 8 countries with a national GDP higher than 2 trillion US dollars. The fastest growing India has a GDP of only 2.6 trillion US dollars in 17 years, and the import value of 450 billion is only one-fifth of China. China, the United States, and India are already global increments. The largest three. Even if China's growth rate drops by half, it is sure to be the largest market for almost all big businesses in the next 10 years.

What are the advantages of the market? The consumer market is large, and it can scale production, reduce production costs, and have strong product competitiveness.

One of the main reasons why the United States accuses China of this Sino-US trade war is that China has forced US companies to "technology for the market." What does this mean? Said not free trade, I think of course free trade. It’s just that China sells not products, sells rights, is “the right to sell things in the Chinese market”, American companies sell technology, if American companies feel that they can’t make a deal, they can’t trade, and China doesn’t take guns to grab. Right?

Willing to sell some of the technology to gain market share, in exchange for more profits, and then invest in the next round of higher-end research and development, this is already one of the continuing benefits of American companies from China. I believe that American companies are making decisions after making a full and comprehensive assessment. This is the real market economy behavior, GM, Ford, etc. are examples.

However, if we want to continue to achieve a win-win situation with "technology for the market", we must also meet the three conditions. First, the two sides form a consensus, the second is the gradient of technology, and the third is the stable expansion of the market.

On the consensus side, the trade war the United States claimed to have suffered a loss (although in the August tariff increase hearing, 55 of the 61 industry associations and business representatives opposed the US government to impose tariffs), in fact, Sino-US trade is A win-win situation is only that the United States is not satisfied with the benefits derived from Sino-US trade and wants to obtain greater benefits. Losing money and earning enough money are two different things. The US government’s statement is tantamount to whether or not a win-win consensus has been reached. This does not respect history or the reality, just as the wolf threatens the lamb to say that you are ruining my water downstream.

The gradient transfer of technology requires advanced technology to maintain self-confidence and innovation. That is to say, scientists and engineers of American companies must constantly strive to continue to lead Chinese scientists and engineers (excessive profits undoubtedly provide the basis for research and development).

The third is the stable expansion of the market, the market is large enough, as already said.

In this path, there are high-end foreign companies and low-end domestic enterprises. The competitive atmosphere has always been benign. Some enterprises are born with worries. For example, Huawei, some enterprises die from happiness, which is from Western Economics Middle School. The theory of arrival, why should American companies panic? The same is a foreign company, the Samsung mobile phone lost, the German Volkswagen, a market economy predator country, because of the different value chain, and the nominal deficit, the great protection of trade protection, eating really hard to see.

The huge market in China is on the one hand, on the demand side, on the other hand, on the production side. Although some of the production capacity is over-production, some areas are still relatively low-end, but in the world of integration today, products and demand are worldwide. Configured, under the price signal, rational demanders will find the best price, the Internet has eliminated too much information asymmetry unless he is overbearing to ask the world not to buy Iranian oil, the world and its consumption People will have their own choices.

For example, the United States has been restricting the import of Chinese honey for many years. However, as the world's largest honey consumer and the largest honey producer, sales and production have not changed. Why? Because there are third-party re-exports, and third-country supplements in third countries, today's Brazilian soybean merchants are as smart as Indonesian honey sellers.

Moreover, China's transfer promotion has also played a positive role. Product quality, added value, and corporate reputation are all improving. Market development is also a market behavior and mutually beneficial behavior. Therefore, from the supply side point of view, the supply capacity of Chinese manufacturing is in the global goods.

China does not pick something not afraid of things, do not want to fight a trade war do not want to fight not afraid to fight, with is such a confidence. Of course, the masters have to deal with each other, calmly coping, and insisting on reform is a must. With human mirrors, you can gain and lose. With such a good opponent, China cannot make progress.

Looking at the Tianchao this year, tax cuts have been on the road, the overall level of customs duties, personal income tax has gradually declined, the mortgage deduction is already on the road, and the substantial decline in corporate taxes and fees has also begun to demonstrate. Internal problems are sometimes unresolved for a long time, and they are easier to break through external pressures. When reforms enter the deep water area, the rest are hard bones. When there is no confidence in the reform, I think about anti-corruption. The hardest bones of anti-corruption can be smashed down. What reforms can't be done? If there is no foreign enemy, the country will die.

The report said that mortgages also accounted for more income, making disposable incomes less likely to affect consumption. Then, we saw that the central government introduced a series of policies to encourage consumption, and cooperated with the previous period to resolutely curb the rise in housing prices. Such a consumer market space will not be seen.

Large market, huge human resources, and consumer market can produce large enterprises. For example, in the world's largest enterprises, the United States has the most, followed by China, the world's top 500 in 18 years, the number of Chinese companies has reached 120, the United States (126), far more than the third place in Japan (52), China over the United States is sooner or later. Things. Although there are certain problems in the industrial structure of Chinese enterprises, the adjustment of a structure has always been a policy goal. Since the reform and opening up, it has always appeared in various important documents. I believe that under the internal and external troubles, the structure will adapt to the changes in the environment to make the most reasonable. Adjustment.

In recent years, the super-large enterprises produced by countries in the world mainly come from China and the United States. Because of the large population, this is a huge advantage for the market, and India will soon catch up.

The huge population consumer market is one of the best trading chips in China. If there is such a good chip, how can China develop as a backward country?

05 Competitive advantage

Hardworking people, responsible government, huge domestic market, plus complete industrial system and total factor cost advantage, huge capital and good technology foundation, industrial support and excellent infrastructure throughout the country, let China's The country is very competitive.

I saw a piece of data on the Internet and found no source. I said that China has 39 industrial categories, 191 medium categories, and 525 subcategories. It is the only country in the world that has all the industrial categories in the UN industry classification, thus forming a An unparalleled and industry-wide industrial system.

Last year, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products accounted for 50% (HS85 and HS84), and the share of mechanical and electrical products in the US import market was 42-32%, which is 2.5 times that of the second Mexico. These two mechanical and electrical products China accounted for 45% and 25% of the global export market respectively (Mainland and Hong Kong), with a total of 22% and 33% of the United States and Germany, and the third echelon of India and Canada did not exceed 5%. The above is just that China does not count Hong Kong. The Hong Kong family imported 590 billion US dollars, surpassing South Korea and India.

Therefore, in the mid-end market, China's competitiveness is very strong. Quality, model completeness, scale, cost, etc. are not replaced in the short term. It is also impossible in the medium term.

Who can replace China's mid-range production capacity? I don't think it is completely impossible in a short period of time. It is almost impossible in the medium term. It is fortune-telling in the long run.

Is it possible in Europe and America ? Europe is now mainly engaged in service industry and high-end manufacturing industry. It is impossible to pick up low-end manufacturing. For example, the employment rate in the United States has reached a new low. Now there are basically good jobs, and many jobs cannot be found. Dry, lack of labor, who is going to do the dirty middle and low-end manufacturing? Germany has been introducing foreign labor.

Is Africa possible? Even if there is an advantage of low wages, there is no way to compare the quality of labor with China, industry support, infrastructure, etc.

India is the most common comparison with China, but the gap between India's infrastructure and China is huge. For example, stable power supply is difficult to guarantee, transportation conditions are poor; human resources are low, India is illiterate 35%, Chinese illiterate is 9.08%; corruption level is much higher than China; there are also religious issues, security issues, caste systems, etc. are obstacles. If you have an advantage over China, it may be English. The democratic system is not an advantage in the economic take-off phase.

Southeast Asia, such as India, Arabia, South America, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, etc., can't replace China's manufacturing capabilities. It is also possible to produce some clothes and shoes, and it is completely impossible to make a full replacement.

Nowadays, there are several reasons why China's manufacturing industry can't do it. There are high labor costs and high rents. Under the same quality, China's labor cost still has great advantages. The high-end talents in the first-tier cities have advantages over the developed countries. The central and western regions have advantages in low-end manufacturing. We must know that there are still tens of millions of poor people in China and the per capita annual income. Less than 3,000 yuan, this labor cost is not low enough? The problem of high rents is that shops may be high, but the rents in manufacturing are not high. The cost of financing is higher than that of developed countries, and it is not high compared with developing countries.

There is a paper in Nature magazine that per capita GDP is related to the degree of diversification of the industrial chain. This is an indicator for economists, but the explanation is very powerful. It is believed that China's per capita GDP will still grow rapidly. This conclusion is actually coincident with Porter in "National Competitive Advantage." In this sense, controlling the cost of factors can make China's per capita GDP long-term optimistic.

The level of scientific research is an important indicator for measuring national competitiveness. For example, the natural index of authoritative scientific research indicators is an indicator formulated by the world's top scientific journal Nature. In the 2017 natural index country rankings, the United States ranked first, China ranked second, Germany third, the United States is about twice as large as China, China is about twice as high as Germany, and then slowly declines from 4 to 10, respectively. Britain, Japan, France, Canada, Switzerland, South Korea, Spain. In addition, the rate of change in 2017 relative to 2016, the United States is down 1.4%, and China is up 13.3%. In fact, nine of the top 10 countries in the natural index are declining, and only China is rising rapidly.

The World Economic Forum released "2017--2018 World Competitiveness Report", China ranked 27, developing countries ranked second, second only to 23 in Malaysia, other than the Chinese front of all developed countries.

The 2018 World Competitiveness Report released by the International Institute of Management (IMD) in Lausanne, Switzerland, shows that the United States ranks first, China ranks 13th, and developing countries ranks first. The "Report" analysis believes that the economic competitiveness of the Chinese mainland has improved significantly, mainly due to the improvement of two major indicators: first, increased investment in hardware and software infrastructure; second, further simplification of government regulations and improved business efficiency. Malaysia ranks 22th.

The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), Cornell University, the European Business School and the 2018 Global Innovation Index Knowledge Partner jointly released the Global Innovation Index (GII) rankings. The report shows that China was promoted to the world's most innovative front. column 20 economies, the No. 17 position, developing countries ranked first, before all of China more than $ GDP3 million for the developed countries per capita.

The above data are a completely neutral third-party evaluation. If you don't believe the Chinese data, the European and American data should always be the letter?

06 Pseudo-free trade

China’s dependence on foreign trade and the United States is declining, as shown in the following figure:

In the first half of 2018, China's foreign trade dependence in the first half of the year was about 33.7%. Among them, the trade dependence on the United States is about 4.6%. The Sino-US trade war has certainly had an impact on China, but certainly not as big as it feels online now. Therefore, different research institutions have said that the trade war will only affect China's GDP by 0.5%, which is basically correct. But at the same time, the Sino-US trade war will also affect global GDP by 0.5%. Really, the world began to share this (trade war) with China.

The main reason for the US to impose trade sanctions on China is the improvement of China's industrial competitiveness due to technological progress and China's ability to control global value chains. At the same time, the United States is dissatisfied with the role played by the Chinese government in economic development.

The United States is so anxious to fight trade wars. It just shows that China is on the right track. The direction of the authoritarian government in combination with the market economy is correct. Therefore, China should stick to its current practice and remain unwavering.

Many people say that the Sino-US trade war is a war of ideology. I want to say that, in the final analysis, it is a war of interests. Adults only look at the interests, and the children speak right or wrong. In the face of interests, the United States is a fart for democratic elections and justice.

There are at least 14 elected governments that have been directly surrendered by the United States, mercenaries, or the CIA: Guatemala, Intelligence, Iran, Costa Rica, Bolivia, Congo, Dominica, Ecuador, Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, El Salvador, Nicaragua. After these democratically elected governments were overthrown, they were all in chaos or dictatorship. Where is the justice of the United States?

The Latin American Handbook says: "In the thirteen years from 1945 to 1958, the United States instigated more than 40 military coups and subversive events in Latin America , propping up Peru, Venezuela, El Salvador, Bolivia, Cuba, Guatemala. The pro-US military with Brazil and other countries came to power. The naked ugly face of the United States is even dissatisfied with his own country. The New York Times said in an editorial in 1956 that the United States is in Latin America. The biggest miscalculation is to openly support dictators. ”

For another example, Saudi Arabia, which is totally incompatible with American values, is one of the best partners in the United States, without him, economic interests.

At present, there have even been many remarks in the country that have screamed for the interests of the United States . They have risen to a moral level and talk about the fairness and justice of trade freedom. This is not stupid or bad. It only looks at the most superficial level.

The full-element, full-scale trade freedom should include four parts: product, capital, knowledge, and manpower . The trade freedom that is generally discussed now mainly refers to a variety of products that are visible and tangible. This is just the tip of the iceberg where trade freedom floats on the water. Occasionally, a little talk about capital and knowledge, such as requiring China to open up capital markets, intellectual property protection, etc., but this is not the main thing. The most fundamental of trade freedom is the free flow of human capital, including human resources for physical and mental work. The obstacles to human capital movement between countries determine that the so-called trade freedom is the most superficial and unfair trade freedom.

What the United States is trying to push the most is to want China to open its product market as much as possible, followed by the capital market, and basically do not talk about free trade in knowledge with China, let alone the free flow of human capital. The so-called "free trade" in the United States is precisely the least free. The strength of the United States is high-tech and weapons research and development. Why not sell it? Free trade, private companies, private companies for profit, why does the US government stop private companies from selling?

If the US government adjusts the level of China's ban on sales to the French level, the US trade deficit with China can be reduced by 35%. Why not sell it? Therefore, under the principle of free trade, the US trade deficit with China is made by the United States itself. What the United States wants to buy for China is soybeans and some agricultural products. How much added value is there for soybeans and agricultural products, we bought all the soybeans in the United States, and we can't spend a few dollars.

A high-tech industrial country, in order to curb China's development, is swaying free trade, but restricts its own private enterprises to sell valuable high-tech and its products to China (can be sold to other countries such as France), and sell some The worthless agricultural products came over, and then the trade deficit was big. China took advantage of it. This is not a trade freedom, let alone a fair and just rule. As long as it is trade, in the final analysis, it is a dispute of interests. It is not stupid or bad to talk about other fairness and justice.

Let's try to talk about the fundamentals of trade freedom: the problem of the free flow of human resources. I am not specializing in experts in this field. When I read the news, I felt that this was not the right thing. I coded it to make an idea record.

Human resources and human capital sell labor, mental labor, and physical labor. Labor is also a commodity. If goods cannot flow, of course, a unified market price cannot be formed. For example, labor prices in developing countries are now particularly cheap, and labor prices in developed countries are particularly expensive.

If it is really free trade, then the country should completely liberalize the labor market, liberalize the restrictions on nationality, and allow developing countries to work and sell labor in the past. Does this idea sound very radical? But 100 years ago, the country was still free to flow between the two countries. I didn't know much about it. I didn't know why it started to restrict the flow and started to have a nationality, green card, and restrictions. I think the root cause is probably to maintain the competitive advantage of developed countries for developing countries.

The globalization of the free market economy dominated by developed countries is still beneficial to developed countries. Rule-makers are sure to make the rules that are most beneficial to them . Developed countries mainly promote the free market of material goods, but impose strict restrictions on the free flow of non-material goods such as labor and scientific knowledge.

For example, the US government has adjusted the level of China's ban on sales to the French level. The US trade deficit with China can be reduced by 35%. Huawei has been blocked by the US government and cannot enter the US market. Chinese lighting companies intend to acquire Philips Lighting. Also blocked by the European government failed to succeed, and so on. The difficulty of catching up and overtaking in developing countries can be imagined. How did the US economy overtake the year? In order to get advanced technology, it can be said that it is unscrupulous, and even directly robbing British ships to obtain technology.

The trade freedom of products now talked about is only the lowest level of trade freedom, and the freedom of trade of knowledge and manpower is the highest level of trade freedom. When the knowledge of developed countries is exchanged and spread to more countries, more countries will improve and innovate. Every knowledge innovation is a ladder of human social progress and can bring benefits to everyone in the world.

The positive externalities of knowledge are the most influential. The history of the development and progress of the entire human race is the history of the overflow of positive externalities of knowledge and the history of cooperation between people. (Positive externalities, the behaviors performed by the perpetrators have spillover effects on the interests of others or the public, but other economic agents do not have to pay any fees for those who bring benefits and enjoy the benefits without compensation. That is, social benefits are greater than personal gains. )

Bernard Shaw said: You have an apple, I have an apple, exchange each other, we still have an apple, but you have a thought, I have a thought, exchange with each other, we have two ideas, even more many. It seems that Xiao Weng is the highest expert in the realm of trade freedom.

07 Have confidence and courage to overcome difficulties

Finally, once again, I wrote this long article, not to write an article that is "awesome", but to explain it truthfully. Now everyone is too pessimistic. We should not have a "savage" self-respect, and there should be no arrogance in the future . We must be clear and objective to look at the facts.

If you already know the answer to China's economic development, take a gun at your head and shoot at the wrong answer. The option is to choose one: The Chinese economy is now a lunch break or dusk. Which one would you choose? I think the "noon break" is far greater than the possibility of "dusk."

Because China has industrious people, responsible government, super huge market, complete industrial support and industrial system, huge total factor cost advantage, excellent infrastructure throughout the country, huge funds, good technology foundation... ... these cards really don’t know how many countries envy them .

Therefore, even if China may have made such mistakes, there are such problems, some of which are even serious, but I don’t think it is necessary to be pessimistic. The market economy is cyclical, there will definitely be a trough, and it will definitely go out of the trough. Historically, no country has ever been killed by tariffs . In the US trade war, in the short term, China does have pressure. However, conversely, if there is pressure and competition, there will be greater (reform) power .

Nothing can be smooth forever, encounter difficulties, calm down, have the courage and confidence to face, can't panic, can't be distracted, and can't be scared .

Without tempering, how can a big country become a strong country?

The real challenge for China is not to weaken the source of competitiveness, to ruin martial arts, to respect the laws of the market economy, to develop the dividends of the system, and to release the potential of the people.

The key to the Chinese economy is to struggle on its own.

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