I have just received a signal, that harbingers a short term LONG opportunity. Seasonality points up, so I fully agree with your prediction, except I usually tell myself when I want to close rather than where.
As you are an only other commodities analyst I found, I am curious if you know some others? Do you use trendlines exclusively from technical part of your analysis?
I don't know of any others who follow commodities. I primarily use supply and demand, but will use trendlines for a visual. What would help this trade set-up is if the US dollar declined.
It is usually the case with dollar corellated markets. It will go down long-term, but short-term it can go anywhere.