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RE: Ethereum co-founder and founder of Cardano Charles Hoskinson predicting ten years until crypto returns to its ATH
The crypto market is crazy but I say that a series of catalysts will set the next bull run @runicar but if history repeats itself again the next bull run will be in another two and a half years.
Gosh I couldn't wait that long.
Ask yourself why Crypto isn't currently in a bull run? For one it can't scale. Even Steem is having problems getting to 50 million or a 100 million user base. Myspace didn't have these problems back in 2008 but Steem is. Reddit doesn't have these problems but Steem does. This tells you why crypto cannot maintain 100 billion dollar market caps while these companies can.
So yes, when one company such as Facebook is easily worth hundreds of billions of course Steem could be worth 1 billion. Of course some crypto app could be worth tens of billions and eventually 100 billion. It doesn't take 10 years either.
The main issues for crypto:
True, we just needed time probably @dana-edwards which for me I can't afford. Sigh.
Hey I didn't say I can afford it either. Growth does take time, but as long as teams make steady progress with the end goal in mind then positive changes keep happening.
If the goal is mainstream adoption then steps can be taken to create the technologies to enable people to pursue that goal. Scaling is critical to pursuit of mainstreamability.
Actually, if history repeats itself (btc to increase in price before the halvening (May 2020)) then we should see an uptrend as soon as the end of this year.
Probably sooner than that but in my opinion it's not really about Bitcoin. It's about if I want to start a company to solve a problem while making lots of money then I need lots of room to grow my user base.
This means we need to be able to scale indefinitely, or more reasonable to billions of users. If someone tried to implement a Facebook clone on a blockchain today it would fail because the platform cannot handle the amount of traffic. It would be too slow, it would also not be as private as Facebook.
What makes you think the bulls will return even sooner?
Scalability is definitely the number one concern atm. Even though Steem is chilling at 0.08% of its total capacity, 100 million users would overload it to the point where ETH was when Cryptokitties clogged it up. Slow and almost unusable.
That's something we need to keep in mind if we want any kind of mainstream adoption in the future but before that happens, we will have to go through a couple of boom and bust cycles.
I agree with every point you stated in your first response to @cryptopie.
Have you seen Steemit's Wikipedia page?
In my opinion "Bulls" are users. They return or leave based on the value a project offers them. Bitcoin doesn't offer much value to casual users. What can you do with Bitcoin besides buy it and hold it hoping that someone else will buy it later? That's why Bitcoin isn't in demand and why the "bulls" aren't back.
To use Bitcoin requires a Bitcoin which can scale. Lightning for example might help it scale.
But then the taxes discourage using Bitcoin as well. Capital gains taxes and price volatility make it so Bitcoin doesn't work well as a currency .This is why people are using Dai, Tether, etc.
Ethereum I think has more potential for mass adoption than Bitcoin. Steem had potential but has squandered it's lead. SMTs and scaling need to be implemented for Steem.
But for crypto to go into bull I think the main two barriers are regulatory suppression (IRS tax policies, SEC being unclear, advertisement bans, etc), and inability to scale. Fix those and I think the bulls will come back because the usage will support long term growth. Right now why buy Steem if we don't even know if crypto is going to remain legal? Why believe in Bitcoin if the tax policies are set up so you pay more taxes for a cup of coffee bought with Bitcoin than you would using your credit card?
I don't really believe the boom and bust cycles represent the underlying fundamentals. The stuff we are seeing right now I think is the result of very low volume and a few big pocket entities toying with and manipulating crypto prices for profit. When volume is this low, and when you can short or pump and dump very easily, it's more than likely manipulated.
I look at news articles for example and when I see trends in the articles I can see attempts to push the price down. Suddenly articles linking Bitcoin to child abuse appear, or articles saying Bitcoin could be in a bear market for years without citing any fundamentals, or articles saying if we just wait for institutions to come save the market, all of these sorts of articles seem more like propaganda than the sort of stuff which tracks fundamentals or even technicals.
Fundamentals have improved since 2017-2018. In 2019 fundamentals are better than ever for a lot of projects. Technicals are pointing to a bottom, not capitulation. Talk of capitulation is based on some assumption about how people in a market are supposed to feel (manipulation) rather than based on some numbers or some data beyond sentiment. Sentiment in my opinion is the easiest to manipulate with rumors, hoaxes, disinfo, propaganda, so I don't rely on investor sentiment as much as I do on use statistics.
Steem has a lot less people using it. Search engine interest data is down. Volume into crypto is down. The rest is propaganda. I track only the total volume flowing into crypto on Coin market cap or the total volume going out. When I see Bitcoin with over 50% dominance I think that it's due to manipulation unless total crypto volume is going up.