Breakfast In America
Market Report: 15th July 2019 — Subscribe to our newsletter.
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The daily view from our desk
An incredibly dramatic weekend of sport saw England finally lift a World Cup! Whilst we were celebrating, a leak from American confirmed what everyone already knew, that Donald Trump is not a fan of Obama. And finally, an enthusiastic Pulp Fiction fan was seen wandering the streets of Claverham terrifying locals.
“INDELIBLY STAMPED”
BITCOIN FELL 17% SINCE FRIDAY’S TOP. BUT ASKING WHY IS NOT AS IMPORTANT AS WHAT NEXT
What a weekend! Total market cap is down 15% since last Monday, as the entire roster of cryptoassets tramped bitcoin into another epic test of $10k. The original token tested its 50-day moving average and has, so far, nicely bounced. Is this the beginning of the summer slump we have been talking about for the past month? Or are bulls just coiling to break into new yearly highs?
Difficult to tell. So far, there seems to be no short material to trap greedy bears, given that bets against BTC fell sharply last Friday — at least on Bitfinex, a major exchange. This means aggressive buyers would have to sweat harder to trigger a cascade of buys — an easy scenario if careless shorts are forced to cover their positions. Was that what the team behind Tether was trying to do on Saturday, when they “accidentally” minted $5 billion instead of the $50 million intended?
“BREAKFAST IN AMERICA”
ALTS HAVE BEEN WRECKED. BUT ASKING WHAT NEXT IS NOT AS IMPORTANT AS WHY
Zooming out, the past week’s bearish structure is clear — with the damning double top we warned you about casting a shadow over the alts market. Looking at the rest of the tokens — with ether shedding nearly 35% over the weekend — it seems tough to imagine the panic can continue. Or not. As Chris Burniske argues, such “signals more pain for the long tail of cryptoassets”.
Moreover, Panda of Binance remains bearish — and expects bitcoin to facea “multi-month correction” which would crush alts. This is aligned with what happened to bitcoin at the end of 2015, as Josh Olszewicz shows. But, what if 2019 is more like 2017 than 2015, as Matt D’Souza hypothesizes? Then, a multi-month correction would just mean we have to wait until September. Then, as @100TrillionUSD keeps modelling, we just have to wait a little bit for $100k.
WHAT YOU CAN’T MISS TODAY
DON’T LEAVE FOR THE WEEKEND WHAT YOU SHOULD READ TODAY
▪ The Block reports that the US Congress is drafting a bill to “Keep Big Tech Out of Finance” and of operating digital assets. Thankfully Bitcoin is not Big Tech, right?
▪ In that regard, Alex Krüger analysed whether Donald Trump could “ban Bitcoin”. In brief, it would be unlikely, indirect, but definitely impactful.
▪ Matt Odell noted last week’s iconic picture of ex-Deutsche Bank staff was incorrectly labelled. The Bitcoin-tote carrying duo are tailors from London!
▪ A Parisian think-tank reported that online video streaming emits 305 million tons of CO2 per year. That’s 13x more the emissions generated by Bitcoin!
▪ Laura Shin’s latest podcast episode has Lawson Baker explaining “why crypto regulation is surprisingly cypherpunk”. Or, at least, can help breed cypherpunks!
QUOTE OF THE DAY
10X TRADERS HAVE 10X PATIENCE
“Trading is a waiting game. You sit, you wait, and you make a lot of money all at once. Profits come in bunches. The trick is not to lose too much in between while going sideways between your home runs”
- By Michael Covel
Hat tip to Mr. Anderson