The Emperor Has Clothes?
Market Report: 12th June 2019 — Subscribe to our newsletter.
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CRYPTO NOTE
The daily view from our desk
Records were broken during the women’s World Cup yesterday when the US thrashed Thailand 13–0, although some weren’t happy with their celebrations. In other remarkable news made by Americans, Joe Biden pledged to cure cancer in his bid to become president. If Biden can cure cancer then perhaps we can turn shrimp and fish into spies?
THE EMPEROR HAS CLOTHES?
WHAT IF BITCOIN IS NOT GOING TO RETRACE AFTER ALL?
Bitcoin continues to consolidate sideways — while many are still getting trapped in the chop. But alts are failing to do anything extraordinary. This means it’s an interesting time to revisit our June scenarios. In brief, we want to understand whether it’s wise to consider a new one (in addition to the generalised dump and the alt season ideas). And that would now be a highly-hyped BTC pump.
Why? Bitcoin has spent most of June stuck between $7.6k and $8.1k. This was expected after April and May’s parabolic advance. But given that bears are not waking up and only a few selected alts are pumping, more people are feeling optimistic about BTC, as Crypto Dog’s bullishness shows. So, just in case, watch over your alts, because if BTC appreciates most will start to feel the gravity.
WHAT IF THE CLOTHES ARE TRANSPARENT AFTER ALL?
EVEN TRANSPARENT BLOCKCHAINS ELICIT COLOURFUL INTERPRETATIONS
Looking at the fundamentals, Willy Woo recently noted something interesting with Bitcoin’s NVT Price ratio (or NVT CAPS on Woo’s website). This is an experimental variation of the traditional NVT ratio and attempts to measure the fair value of a network based on transaction value and frequency (or velocity). In other words, it shows whether prices are connected to on-chain capital flows.
And, what’s interesting is that the past few months have seen the earliest and highest divergence between price and fundamentals in a market cycle. This prompted Willy Woo to remark the past month’s growth was purely a “quant fund driven short squeeze” to “liquidate the bears”. However, this doesn’t mean such speculative activity will push BTC back down. Even though “a proper retrace” is expected, what if the “real investor flows” come in before that happens?
WHAT YOU CAN’T MISS TODAY
DON’T LEAVE FOR THE WEEKEND WHAT YOU SHOULD READ TODAY
▪ To counter the above hypothesis, we recommend a recent investors’ noteshared by Tuur Demeester of Adamant Capital. They also believe in the retrace but argue a continuation of the parabolic move is not impossible.
▪ If you are looking to continuing trading alts, you must check The Tie’s visual report on the Twitter activity of each major cryptocurrency community.
▪ Another must-check visualisation that came out yesterday is Renato Shirakashi’s take on the “Evolution Of Bitcoin’s Non-Linear Regression”.
▪ Lastly, Nathaniel Whittemore compiled over twenty charts to compensate for the fact cryptoassets weren’t featured in a popular internet trends report!
QUOTE OF THE DAY
WE’LL ALWAYS HAVE FOLLOWERS
“So yea, we don’t get a full slide in Meeker’s Internet Trends. We get a basically unlimited amount data, on demand, at any time, with a huge number of brilliant and highly public interpreters.”
- By Nathaniel Whittemore