Trendspotting

Market Report: 18th July 2019 — Subscribe to our newsletter.

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OUR TWO SATOSHIS

The daily view from our desk

A German woman recently tried to purchase a car with cash she printed at home, reminds you of anyone? In sporting news, the world’s worst sponsorship logo has been confirmed, Huddersfield Town will now be competing in beauty pageants. And lastly, if you’re looking to take up a new hobby, why not sign up to next years Heavy Metal Knitting competition, obviously hosted in Finland.

TRENDSPOTTING

WHO NEEDS REASONS WHEN YOU’VE GOT BITCOIN?

Bitcoin’s bounce stopped right at $10k. After climbing 10% from $9.1k, the original cryptoasset stalled. How will this indecision be solved? Well, sentiment is still on the fearful side, but it has bounced nicely from this week’s extremevalues. And some traders, like the transparent Salsa, are still considering a “potential reversal”. But, as DonAlt puts it, “the bullish market structure is gone”.
What does that mean? That bitcoin bulls have — so far — failed to invert the trendof lower highs and lower lows. This is prompting Cold Blooded Shiller to believewe’ll see $8.5k soon so that the CME gap meme is fulfilled. However, as Avi Felman reminds, while arguing for consolidation, if most market participants are expecting a given move in the short-term the incentives are to trap that majority.

NEVER LET YOUR ALTS TIE YOU TO THE TRACKS

“CHOOSE LIFE. CHOOSE A JOB. CHOOSE A STARTER HOME. CHOOSE YOUR FUTURE. BUT WHY WOULD ANYONE WANT TO DO A ALT LIKE THAT?”

Meanwhile, now that bitcoin has literally calmed down, what’s happening in the world of alternative cryptoassets? Unfortunately not much. Over the past 30 days, only seven of the nearly 700 tokens listed on OCFX — the industry’s best source of crypto metrics and rankings — are in the green. And only six of them went up more than BTC. However, bitcoin’s dominance is finally trending down.
Can that signal an ethereal alt season is coming? As we’ve been arguing for a while, that’s very unlikely. However, not necessarily because bitcoin will continue pumping after exiting the current pit stop. Instead, as Nunya Bizniz suggests, we’ll likely thread sideways for a while (although it seems naive to assume the extent of such consolidation based on two prior moments). And, this year’s profits don’t seem sufficient to pump hundreds of sheepcoins — at least not yet.

WHAT YOU CAN’T MISS TODAY

DON’T LEAVE FOR THE WEEKEND WHAT YOU SHOULD READ TODAY

▪ Wired’s Evan Ratliff shares this great story on the plausible reasons Paul Le Roux, a coder turned criminal boss, could be Satoshi Nakamoto. The conclusion is that it’s just a great narrative that’s impossible to prove.
▪ Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio, the popular hedge fund manager, suggests now “it’s a good time to ask what will be the next-best currency or storehold of wealth” in a great post about economic “paradigm shifts”.
▪ Reuter’s Inti Landauro reports on the new fiscal and regulatory framework that France has prepared for companies which want to do an ICO. Too late?
▪ Preston Byrne, also known as the possible room mate of “Marmotoshi Nakaburrow”, finally put his criticial thoughts about Libra in long form.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

OH, WHEN CONGRESSMEN KNOW WHAT A TRUE OPEN DISTRIBUTED LEDGER IS

“There’s no capacity to kill Bitcoin”

• By Patrick McHenry
  U.S. Congressman