RE: Are Most Cryptocurrencies Doomed to Collapse — because they’re “ICO-issued”?
Edit history of this comment.
Current linear trendline is ~$5800 and rises to $6000 by Feb 20. If we break down through that, then next trendline is ~$3500 rising to $6000 by 2019, so that would be probably a crypto winter or at least probably not new ATHs until after 2018. If we break through $3500, then all trendlines are broken. That would be catastrophic. I haven’t tried to model that case yet, and it would surely be a crypto winter or worse. There’s probably not enough BTC that is available to be sold for the price to drop to $1800 (buyers would swoop in at higher prices and take all the volume the market could dump).
https://cryptowat.ch/kraken/btcusd/3d
https://cryptowat.ch/kraken/btcusd/1d
The logarithmic regression fit trendline (which is more of a long-term model which won’t help with the wiggles) is at the BCT link I provided in my prior post.
EDIT: We’ve already hit $5919 on Kraken, so very near to trendline support, if that will hold as support. Look at the long-term chart for Bitcoin and make sure you set it to “logarithmic” and then click also “hide events”, so you can get some historical perspective on this correction. Note on that long-term chart that the rise was very steep before the $31 peak in 2011, then the rate of ascent was less steep from 2012 to the peak of $1150, yet was more steep than the rate of ascent since 2016. So this means that if we’re going into a crypto winter with a bottom at 1/10th of $19k (i.e. $1900), then that $1900 won’t be reached until 2 years! That seems highly unlikely to be the scenario we’re in. Whereas if you move the starting date for that long-term chart forward to 2013 (drag the slider at the bottom with your mouse pointer), you can see both the $213 peak in March and the $1150 peak in December has greater than 2/3 corrections very quickly after the peaks. Yet the March peak obviously lead to another peak 6 months hence which was 5X higher. If that’s the scenario we’re in now, then since the rate of ascent is less steep, it might take 9 - 18 months to reach that 5X higher peak at $100k.
Chart of high volume at bottoms
Also look at the huge volume on this last dramatic leg of the correction today! More volume than we’ve ever seen on Bitcoin trading. Wow, blood in the streets. The weak hands and those who were leveraged short have capitulated as I expected would be required to reset the bull market. ATHs in terms of volume usually are an inflection point. I put greater than 50% odds that $5919 is the bottom. Another probably expert trader appears to agree.
UPDATE#2 Bitcoin bottomed $5850 nearly exactly as I predicted earlier in the day! Very strong vertical move. We will get a decent bounce over next days or weeks. However, I think we should cash out more BTC when we hit $15k to be sure we have enough to meet project expenses for many months, because when BTC dropped from $213 to $68 in 2013, then it bounced to 80% of $213 then declined again for a double-bottom before resuming the assault on a new ATH at $1150. Given the slope of BTC log chart is flattening over time, it will probably be 9 - 18 months before we hit next ATH peak at $40k – $100k.
IMO, the current China scare and other Wall of Worries (ICO crackdown, Tether fears, etc) are not of the scale of Mt. Gox which caused the last crypto winter. Mt. Gox had more than 75% of the exchange market at that time. China can Great Firewall the foreign exchanges, but this will only push their users to VPNs and decentralized exchange options. It’s causing the cryptocurrency ecosystem to diversify and become more resilient. Single or grouping of nation-states can’t kill cryptocurrency, it is analogous to an endospore bacteria that can’t be destroyed. Taking note of McAfee’s tweet that Bitcoin declines every January for past years, note that the very important Chinese new year may be a factor. Institutional investors are bullish with a long-term focus.
Also the general markets are also correcting. For the DJIA perhaps fear of rising interest rates which also temporarily drives international capital out of the dollar-denominated bonds and towards EU bonds where the ECB is expected to be less aggressive about raising interest rates given preexisting bond investments decline in value when rates rise (but this will reverse in a stampede when the short-dollar vortex kicks in and capital chases capital into the skyrocketing earnings in USA stock markets and higher-yielding USA bonds with a vengeance) , but Armstrong has shown numerous times in his blogs that DJIA should rise with rising interest rates (also because of the short-dollar carry trade unwinding vortex ahead). This was all part of Martin Armstrong’s prediction of a pullback before the SLINGSHOT move. Seems to me that the DJIA and Bitcoin are both aligning themselves for a SLINGSHOT move to nosebleed ATHs after this very scary correction to knock all the weak hands off the crypto rocket. I could be wrong though and we enter the crypto winter now (but I really doubt it!). Also the interest rate issue mostly affects public institutions (and the coming collapse of Western socialism and its ideological suicide) such as government’s interest payments on gargantuan sovereign debt and the bankruptcy of the world’s retirement plans, because technology is accelerating growth more than we can see in the GDP numbers. Note BTC peaked December and DJIA January, so if BTC bottomed now and DJIA doesn’t that could just be they’re slightly out of phase. Btw, did y’all notice Armstrong correctly predicted the Eagles SuperBowl win when the majority were betting for the Patriots. He (his Socrates system automagically/automatically) also predicted the recent top of BTC at $19k precisely, which I also confirmed it did predict in advance.
Thanks for the heads up on G20 March plans for coordination on crypto regulation. Do you have link for that news? In any case, I doubt they can implement a coordinated scorched earth dragnet policy against ICOs in some radical swoop so soon after that meeting. Instead, they will likely take an incremental approach. When the crypto sector goes to nosebleed Tulip Mania (e.g. BTC to $100k), then they will likely need to become really get aggressive against ERC-20 ICO securities. The regulations I expect from them is coordination on defining what is a security and the ability to ban centralized exchanges within their coordinated jurisdictions which don’t comply with delisting tokens which are breaking the securities regulations. They can’t really ban decentralized exchanges, but decentralized exchanges aren’t used much any way. Decentralized exchanges have very low liquidity right now (I mean truly decentralized which most of all of the existing offerings that claim to be decentralized are not really and can be easily taken down by the authorities). This is btw why I am being very careful with my crypto project to not create a token which is a security.
I was wondering how to contact you because I wanted to ask how your health is going on and update you on my health and what I learned. First I cured the TB. A MRI (no contrast die as that shit is long-term toxic to neurological system) confirmed I have numerous 0.3 - 1.1cm cysts on my liver, spleen, and left kidney. So what I’ve discovered is that I only feel healthy and improve if I religiously adhere to:
Daily sunshine on my entire exposed torso, which for me in the tropics means 15 minute jog/walk wearing only mini-shorts. For you in nordic climate, you’re going to need an hour in the sun in the summer and in the winter you’re fucked. Tanning beds and vitamin D3 supplementation is not the same result! In short, you need to leave northern Europe in the winter.
Daily intense exercise, which means alternating days of barbell+gym and jogging/basketball.
Daily modified warrior diet, which means no eating from bedtime to after lunchtime then next day. For lunch only a salad with no dressing. Heaping portion of dark green leafy vegetable such as spinach every damn day. And then meat in the form of tuna, chicken breast, and beef. Avoid the fatty fish for the most part such as salmon. Use an organic mayonnaise with the tuna that has free-range eyes and no chemicals (Kirkland brand for example), and actually the soybean oil is a good source of vitamin E. Lots and lots of salad with celery, raddish, Romaine dark green lettuce, onions, bell peppers, etc. And minimize the carbos from grains. Eat lots of fruit bitter or semi-sweet fruits instead (not juices!). For me the pineapple is the best and has so many minerals also. So carbos coming from fruit, not just grains! Never ingest anything that has any chemicals in it, including soft drinks, etc.. Only eat those whole foods above. Exercise in morning if feel hungry to make hunger go away. Fasting until after lunch or to evening (other than a salad) causes the liver to produce ketones every day instead of only relying on glucose.
That regimen works!
If you logout of BCT (i.e. delete all the cookies for that site in your browser), you should be able to read the site. If BCT blocked your IP address, then use a VPN. You have to find a VPN they haven’t blocked though. BCT is becoming an insane censorship gulag which we need to replace with a decentralized option.
P.S. Most of my activity lately is on Github and for the moment mostly in the issues discussion of a single repository. I don’t know if there’s still a means to see all the Github activity for @shelby3 because Github doesn’t include issue comments in what it defines to be contributions?
See also a comment I added today. Important point there about how rising volatility is the catalyst for contagion cascade that ends raising demand for the existant global reserve currency— i.e. the USA dollar.
Oily foods in excess just aren’t good. Salmon is a very oily fish. It’s okay once in a while, but my experience with it, is it is not a good regular item for the diet. Also grass/bugs fed, open range raised beef and chicken also have significant omega 3. IMO and experimentation, too much omega 3 by over emphasizing fatty fish is taking the point about omega 3 to an extreme and beyond a healthy balance. Generally speaking if all other factors equal, fish that live exclusively in the wide-open ocean are leaner and healther than fish that dwell in streams, rivers, lakes (especially man-made such as Tilipia fish) or in the corrals or along the seabed. Yet very old fish in waters polluted with mercury aren’t desirable as they concentrate it. Tuna from the south Pacific where I am are very low in mercury.
I’m not claiming salmon is bad, but I don’t think eating salmon every day is a panacea or desirable, based on my experimentation with it. I find I am much more lean and feel better with tuna. If I eat salmon or tuna belly which are both extremely unbalanced high in omega 6, then I get adverse effects. Yet I am much more sensitive than someone with a healthy digestive tract.
Thanks for the update! Especially your eating regiment. I'd also like to talk to you more outside of here concerning health. Not sure how to keep in touch. I just signed up for steemit chat https://steemit.chat/home. Maybe that could be an appropriate channel. Otherwise I will have to get a vpn and new account at bitcointalk.
Here is a link to the news about bitcoin talks at the G20
https://www.coindesk.com/mnuchin-talk-crypto-regulation-g20-summit/
Concerning your predictions on the btc market I like the idea of this drop being the same as the april 2013 drop. I remember how surprised everyone got when the dip was just temporary and btc just kept goin gup and up 6 months later. I managed to sell a lot of coins in dec and started buying back last few days. maybe this was the bottom but if it wasn't I still have some more ammo for lower prices.
take care!
Raj
One of my trader friends shared the following chart with me, which he presumably produced after reading my prior post and based on my statements over the past month that the logarithmic chart gives a long-term perspective. When the linear and log chart interpretations agree, that could be a strong indicator of the interpretations being correct. He employs better datasets and software than I do, because he is very professional about his trading (I’m a computer scientist not a professional trader).
It’s interesting that he identified a funnel from 2011 which was more steep than the funnel that appears to be forming now for 2018. This interpretation would mean that we’re not replicating 2013, but rather 2011 on a 50% reduced slope! Wow. So we could by summer be at new ATHs. And it also consistent with a much more steep and deep crash after hitting $100k than 2014 (replicating the 2011 crash), which is consistent with my expectation of a massive theft of SegWit transactions (aka donations) by the miners thus bankrupting many of the centralized exchanges. My conspiratorial theory (which I’ve linked to in my prior post) is that nation-states won’t even need to regulate centralized exchanges, because the Zionists funded Blockstream in order to be able to destroy the centralized exchanges algorithmically. Or at least the crash coming after the $100K peak can be induced by G20 coordinated crackdowns on listing of ICOs on centralized exchanges, failure of Tether (which btw the aforementioned trader and I brought to the attention of BCT early last year yet we were scoffed at).
click to zoom
Compare the above chart to the long-term regression chart fit trend (←follow that to this link for the actual chart):
click to zoom
Note the above chart was needs to be updated. The current regression fit trendline would be higher than the “1 year ago” pink curve (my guesstimate is it would cross $100k in 2021) and significantly higher than the red curve, because that regression fit was computed in early 2017 when the price was much lower. The update extending the green line was hand drawn by myself to a rough approximation. Note the regression fit does not mean $100k can’t be reached until 2021, because of the massive overshoot above the regression fit line on speculation mania peaks as shown in the 2011 and 2013 peaks. So we could indeed touch $100k on a peak possibly in 2018 or early 2019, and then $1 million looks plausible roughly 2024 – 2026.
I’ll respond to @finitemaz’s comment post with my thoughts about the testimony at the Senate hearing. I will include there any additional thoughts about G20 coordination. Essentially the European securities regulation unification under the EU regulator is I think not yet fully in place, thus I think it’s going to take them some time to get a highly coordinated crackdown on ICOs globally. Based on the chart above, the move to $100k (and subsequent crash) will likely get out in front of their efforts and thus when they go cracking down on all the ERC-20 ICOs, the principals of those securities offerings will be unable to make restitution because surely the securities regulators will base investment valuations on fiat and the crash in the cryptocurrency prices will mean these principals will be lacking sufficient funds. It will be a bloodbath of ERC-20 fraudsters going to jail and/or fined (with clawbacks of their homes and other assets), along with their affiliates (e.g. promoters, brokers, and potentially legal counsel). The worldwide clawbacks, extraditions, etc will go on for years and decades as the nation-states coordinate their activities over time (and remember Russian Federation is a member of the G20). These idiots who are offering, promoting, advising ERC-20 ICOs are going to have their fingertips burned up to their armpits eventually.
It’s useless to make ICOs legal in the tiny nation of Belarus, because securities regulation jurisdiction is the jurisdiction where the buyers of your securities are. ICOs need to be global or significantly near to global in order to garnish the investment interest they do. If Belarus refuses to cooperate with the G20 on crackdowns against such violations, they will become excluded from the financial system with sanctions.
I’m still on crypto.cat as user ecash. Send me a buddy request. Please to other individuals don’t spam me with buddy requests because I’m too busy programming and researching. No time for discussion with numerous individuals. For the other computer scientists and programmers, add me on LinkedIn (link is in my first blog post on this system) if you’re sure we are peers otherwise general contact is email me shelby at coolpage dot com; and I will get around to responding there as priorities allows. Note I get a lot of spam in my email, so I may not see every inquiry because I don’t check it every day (maybe once of a week).
thanks will install crypto.cat later this week. too tired now. have to sleep.
I won’t go into more detail here because you may not wish for me to discuss or even hint at details of health issues in public, but please remind me to discuss intravenous vitamin C treatments with you. I did this 5 times thus far. I will explain to you what I think the benefits might be. I have a blog on my Medium which discusses IV vitamin C for treating Tuberculosis, which is presumably not an illness you have.
Disclaimer: I am just a bot trying to be helpful.