Market Manipulation and the Dive
I knew there was price manipulation going on in the crypto markets, but thought it was the futures markets being used to do it.
And I knew Tether/Bitfinex was crooked, but thought that was solely lying about cash reserves, causing them to be investigated for that.
This takes it to a whole new level by combining the two!
See: Bitcoin’s Price Was Artificially Inflated Last Year, Researchers Say
IMHO as a layman investor, this is still a great industry to invest in longterm because of the revolutionary importance of the underlying tech. But in terms of market timing for investing, now would be a time to just hold, not buy. Right now you'd be trying to catch a falling knife.
The market has been bouncing sideways, so you've already seen a lot of volatility after the plunge in Jan. (which it seems was caused by Bitfinex stopping their antics while under investigation), but even though that manipulation was already priced out of the market back then, the reaction as this news spreads will likely bring the market down even further.
If you haven't already invested, when you see a 20% price drop from where we are now, that may be an ideal time to get in. I say "may" only because I'm not psychic in predicting these markets nor a professional financial adviser, so who really knows. But I personally would wait another 20% before buying more given these revelations.
What do you intend to do? Start buying the dip, wait it out, or get out of a market you now think is totally FOS?
(Photo source: Pixabay)
Resteems always appreciated
Hi @indigoocean. Bitcoin looks to me to possibly be forming more or less a double bottom from the first 10 day period of April and/or a triple bottom from more or less Feb. 6th. And let's face it: as bitcoin goes, so goes all the rest of the crypto market for the most part. So far it seems the day you ran this may have been the turn-around and support is holding. If we see any significant build up from here, odds are good it could be the beginning of another bull run.
Although, with all the market manipulation going on, as well as the fact that so many central banks are working on their own cryptocurrency, they may limit it to another month or two long bull trap. Who knows through. Tis' the year the 1988 Rothchild owned Economist magazine predicted the New World Currency. My last post went into that a bit and there's a lot more I've got my eye on. The last 6 months since the day bitcoin went live on the CME it's been like HODLing the back of mostly a bear. LOL Anyway, hope you have a nice weekend.
Thanks for the insightful comment. I've actually been seeing a lot of volatility the last few days. It went up the day the SEC declared BTC and ETH to not be securities, then went down again the next day, and has been up and down ever since. Was up last time I checked today.
I resonate with your prediction. We can never know, but it does seem that the manipulation in the market (which not only holds it down, but also scares of would be new investors) may continue to make us bounce sideways (my idea of the bull trap) for another month or two. Eventually the fundamentals of the tech will take over. The crypto will simply be needed to fulfill its function on the blockchain, and that which isn't needed should fail to exist.
From my perspective there hasn't really been much volatility the last few days, at least not compared to the pace at which things moved especially last year. I guess from a stock market volatility perspective yeah, but to me it's sooooo sloooow moving and volumes have been so dead compared to 5-6 months ago. Then BTC was hitting sometimes in the low 20 billion USD daily volume range and the whole crypto market pushing 50B+. Lately I've seen maybe 6b on the highs and 3b, like today, on the lows with a total crypto volume around 10B. It's like the day traders have been pushed off the markets by the bots and HODLing away, like me. :)
I especially agree with your comment,
That's why I really focus on utility.
I'm still hodling. Don't plan on buying more or sell. Just wait patiently for the next wave to bring me some profit. I've burned my hands with trading already so I'm into a slightly long term investment for now. I was "predicting" a few months ago that in summer we'll see the next bull run, but I was totally wrong. Now I realized I have no clue so I'm just hanging with my coins.
I'm in the same boat as you. Clearly not a trader, so hodling. It's a longterm play, and you have to be able to stomach ups and downs, but Tether is definitely not a safe place to take profits into along the way. And taxes are bad for heavy trading anyway. I think we're not maximizing returns, but we're also not maximizing losses, just seeing great longterm returns.
HODL mode engaged! I have no worries as I have always considered crypto a long term investment. I believe in the technology therefore the short term price movement doesn't bother me.
I largely feel the same. It does smart when I've just invested and then see it immediately dip by 20%, but I know that eventually it will rise to at least 2x and then that missed 20% won't bother me. We can't time the bottom of the market, so no use fretting not being able to.
I only have my Steemit earnings to buy with, so I get what I can, when I can, and hopefully can hodl without having a cash emergency.
I would still be reinvesting earned STEEM, whether by powering up or holding BTC. Both ultimately pay off, even in markets that are currently down. And yes, hopefully no emergencies forcing us to trade any of it for USD!
Here's my strategy - buy BTC throughout the dip, then exchange it for undervalued coins with a strong project that were at 2-3X their current value during early May. These coins will recover faster as soon as the bottom is reached. If you wait until the bottom you may not have time to buy or trade everything you need!
You're fortunate if you're just putting most of your money in these next few weeks (or more) that this news will be working its way through the market. Sounds like a solid strategy for profiting from it.
more dips to come or are we out of the words?
I am personally waiting a few days to see what happens as the news spreads.
Buying at this would be a good idea not waiting for it to fall more in price. I only wish I have some cash to buy more steem and power up.
Please try to power up with steem if you got some extra cash with you.
I'll wait for it to fall further. Most people haven't gotten the news yet. As they do, it will fall to irrationally low levels. That's when I'll buy more. Really I'm already fully invested for my target amounts, plus some. So I'm really being very picky about what price seems worth it for me to come in at.
That's very nice. Enjoy the deep but it's not really favourable for some Nigerians at this point because many depend on the platform for their feeding and upkeep.
Yes, the low price of STEEM really hurts those supported by it. I care about that too to a lesser extent. I think when I post pays out while the price is down, you get less value locked in. Even if the price of STEEM/SBD later rises, you actually received less of them that week, so there is less rising. Correct me if I'm wrong on that.
No you are not wrong. Actually some people had a few in store and was expecting a rise but then the fall came. And one of those who expected a little rise but then it fell almost completely from 1500 naira per sbd as at two months to 375 naira as i speak to you now.
Am just seeking eternal fund while i reserve my sbd to come up a bit. The fall is not too funny for we Nigerians.
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Great little piece @indigoocean. Appreciate the investigative work and the advice for caution!
Glad you saw it. Please get the word out.
I just wrote a post about it and wrote another one last week. I read about the report on ccn and lots of people are talking about it but it doesnt seem legit. There is always some news that is used to justify drop in crypto prices and this seems like that. USDT is continuously being printed and the audit is yet to be released so bitfinex and USDT are things to worry about. However, there have been enough positive news, since consensus because of which i am confortable hodling, infact buying when i can. The big money will come this year and most TA calls for 3k will not be proven right.
To me this is totally a question of timing, not whether to buy or hodl. I would rather not put in $20k today to see I have $15k by Saturday, and I do think that's something we could realistically see right now. I think one thing those of us really plugged in on crypto often forget is how much ahead we are of the rest of the market in terms of getting information. So many times I think the market has been shocked by something, only to find out that most people didn't even know yet. A week later the shock comes and the market reacts. So now I'm going much slower in my pacing, and expecting most others to know something 2-3 weeks after I do.
So for me, this is a time to hodl and not invest further. If I hadn't already invested as much as I really want to, I might be playing the edge and seeing if I can get some bargains right now, even if I get a better bargain tomorrow, better still next week, and so on. But I can't keep dollar cost averaging in right now given how fully invested I already am, so for me it's a question of waiting for a truly irresistible price for BTC or just letting my current investments have time to mature without my taking advantage of this current crisis of confidence in the market.
Yeah, I agree with you. If one is fully invested, then its best to wait and get the timing right. Wait for the confirmation of the bottom to set in and then buy. I waited all this while and wasn't going to invest if bitcoin was on its way up. I missed the previous falls so for me this is an opportunity to average again, only at lower prices. I am buying the dips but again, not going all in, as for me its difficult to take a call. but i do think, if btc falls to 5k, its worth taking a shot. but again, the strategy is very personal here. to each their own.
Agree on the bit that right now markets look crazy, there is high likelihood that btc will test the 5800 odd level again. and then most people are confident that its headed even lower. So best to get it right, and that's a perfectly sound strategy. i haven't seen people who aren't aware of these sharp falls. everyone i know, checks the market like their facebook account - very frequently. If you meant the news, then yeah maybe don't get to find the reasons at the right time.
Keep on creating content & by the end of the year Steem is
worth ? U$ ? €