p.s. guys, I want to be clear that I think this current retesting of support is a fantastic sign. It is exactly the kind of market structure; foundation if you like, which we must have to launch a crack at new all time highs.
Time to show your fortitude and confidence in the Bitcoin tech.
Absolutely, the whole market really needed this. I would love to see some little alt run whilst BTC consolidates for a bit, then the king will awake and take those gains to fuel a new run. I guess retest to 6k might be possible, but it depends too much on fud.
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I agree with the end of your comment @etka.
This is where I feel the limitations of TA begin to show.
I believe that TA becomes more and more powerful as a predictive tool, the more liquid and more diverse the participants of a market become.
At the moment this is not the case with Bitcoin or cryptos in general.
In fact a strengthening case can be made that no markets exhibit these 2 traits which could lead to the conclusion that TA is becoming more and more irrelevant as we get into the 2,3, and above sigma events rattling the market.
My memory is drawn to the VIX volatility spike we had at the beginning of Feb 2018. Over a 5 sigma event! i.e. exceedingly rare and unexpected.
My feeling is that we are entereing a phase of general financial outlier events. These events will compound eachother creating cascades of extreme events. Since TA looks at patterns and tries to push forward previous patterns to have a better than even chance at predicting the future, such extreme events will negate much of the potency of TA.
Another was to put it, I will have to find another subject for my blog if I am right!