Thursday 06/07/2018, 09:20CET

Good morning everyone,
Price action in BTC markets are slightly down this morning but it looks more and more positive as we grind furtner along and solidify support levels here.

We are trading at the 6450 USD handle at press time with a negative bias over the last few hours.
Our 6410 support level looks to be heading for a reconfirmation. I am hoping for a nice strong bounce here in the next few hours.

I have updated the technical analysis on the hourly chart and seems that we have finally broken the descending channel pattern that was the world we lived in since early May. We could be premature in calling this as the floor in #btc but I am getting more and more confident with each passing day that we do not break below and stay below the key level of 6k.

Yes, we did spend a tense 25h period below the 6k level recently, but then there was a strong bounce back out above and we have stayed well above it now for a week. 6k is looking more and more to be our market structure level. A kind of super support.

So let's take a look at the chart now...

btcusd 1h -[bitfinex]

We seem to be forming a nice ascending channel now shown here by the 3 parallel red lines.
The bottom of the channel will intersect our lower support at 6260 in the next hours.
A nice confirmation is the center of the channel coincides with the 100h ma for a good 36h stretch.
We trade below our momentum indicator which is the 21h ma, but our 50h ma still has not curved downward.
Our 200h ma is also heading up to meet our 6410 sr line.

(if this technical analysis gargon is losing you, let me know in the comments below. I can do some explanations to help)

What do I think is in store?

I think we are likely to test the 6410usd level shortly. This will be about a 2.5% drop. How we bounce or hold here will be a good indicator of whether or not we will retest the 6260 level. A few hourly candle closes above the 21h ma will be the signal for new short term bullish sentiment.
A typical sharp spike in price as we often see could have us confronting the 7k handle shortly as well. This would be the top end of our channel.

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Zooming out to the daily to see these trend lines puts some perspective on our state.

btcusd 1d -[bitfinex]

It is nice to believe that we are completing the triple bottom formation which is often associated with a start of a bull phase. But to be honest and clean with the technical analysis, one should consider that as welcome that this recent reversal has been, we are not out of the woods just yet.
A quick glance at the daily chart shows that we have done this kind of bull trap reversal before.
What is different this time is that we are already skating right on our market structure level of 6k. Each time this level is tested and supports, it gains strength as support.

I am holding on my stop loss trades and nudging them up gradually as we grind along.

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Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. Before investing any funds do your own research and make your own decisions. Cryptocurrencies are highly speculative.
And finally: Do not invest money you are not comfortable losing.

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