08/01/2019/08:00CET
A quick update about our trade and a look at the charts this morning.

For the previous posts that will give this post context see Trading 101 - how to find a swing trade opportunity P1,P2,P3,P4

The trade

• We've entered a stop loss in the profit zone for the remainder of the capitol in this trade. We win no matter what now.
• Only 25% of the capital of our trade left on the table.
• The remainder of the capital has only seen a few % at best of returns. Not what I call a successful swing trade.
• Odds are leaning toward our stop loss to be triggered in the next 24h or so.
• Not all trades are big winners or losers. Some sort of eek out a modest return for a lot of screwing about like this one.
• It's still "better than a kick in the arse with a pointy shoe!"

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What else does the hourly chart tell us?

• It seems on the hourly here that our price action is respecting the upper wedge boundary I tentatively penciled in a few days ago as resistance, but now as support.
• Volumes are somewhat higher than they were just preceding the large green candle but they are still subdued.
• I added my stop loss for the last 25% of the trade in black dotted line at 3920 usd
• These 2 trend lines I have on the chart at the moment converge on about the 10th Jan
• Historically such large pump candles are followed later by the opposite candle. This is not TA but just what I know about the nature of our market at the moment.
• My bias still leans to a retest of the low 3k in the next days or week.
• A drop to the recent lows, to retest the low 3k levels will be a nice time to analyse and maybe entere a new swing trade in #btc.

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extra thoughts

What I have observed in the markets, not just #btc is a bias toward the psychological comfort with actual movements in markets. What do I mean by this?

When a market endures a 70-80% retracement like we have had in #bitcoin and the rest of the #crypto complex, we as market participants become accustomed to e.g. a 500 or more usd swing in bitcoin price in one day.
Back when bitcoin traded at 10k that is only a measly 5% move. Today that is well over a 10% move.

This leads me to believe that the first swing trades off the bottoms are the most profitable if you have the balls to get in.
Dip buying at these levels can be actually quite a wise and profitable trading strategy in a market like cryptos.

As always guys, leave comments, have fun and trade safe.

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Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. Before investing any funds do your own research and make your own decisions. Cryptocurrencies are highly speculative.
And finally: Do not invest money you are not comfortable losing.

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