Trading 101 - how to find a swing trade opportunity P6 - epilogue
10/01/2019/21:30CET
Our trade has completed, not exactly as we had hoped but within the plan that was set - sort of!
For the previous posts that will give this post context see Trading 101 - how to find a swing trade opportunity P1,P2,P3,P4,P5
Today, this morning we had a strong retracement in #Bitcoin, again this were whale orders that dumped sell orders onto the market. Lets take a look at the charts...
The hourly
- Between 7am and then again at 5pm we saw 2 major dumps of sell orders on bitcoin
- In the second dump about 3300 btc were traded in 1 hour on the bitstamp exchange.
- We were lucky to have set a stop loss in our trade at the 3920 level, and so we are now exited from this trade.
- Results are not in yet but my feeling we are slightly in the green for the entire trade, but it was a rather high maintenance trade over the last 3 weeks
- It is not what I would say was a textbook trade, but none are, and you have to be ready to adjust your strategy on the run sometimes.
- But in saying this you should try to mitigate your emotional influence in the trade. Quite hard to achieve when money is on the line.
Till this morning we were in the trade with about 25% of our capital left. Now we are totally out of the trade with a modest gain.
If I find time I would like to do a full analysis of the trade and publish this. Let me know in the comments if this would be interesting.
I wanted to show you a more granular look at these dumps...
5 min chart
What now?
With these kinds of plays going on in the market it is hard to do any TA of value at anything shorter than the daily time frame in my opinion. But to show you something that is in the back of my mind at the moment...
A few weekly charts
- This Bitstamp and the red indicator is the 200 week simple moving average. Bitstamp has one of the longest historical trading records around, this is necessary for such a long term indicator.
- Bitcoin has never gone below this indicator!
- Bitcoin has had 2 cases in history of bouncing solidly off this indicator
- If we were to extrapolate backwards the 200 wma you will see that there were some kisses off this before the bull run of 16-17 took off. History could repeat.
- We have kissed off this indicator for a second time in history
- This indicator is at 3250 usd currently
- I believe that odds are we kiss off this indicator again.
As always guys, leave comments, have fun and trade safe.
Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. Before investing any funds do your own research and make your own decisions. Cryptocurrencies are highly speculative.
And finally: Do not invest money you are not comfortable losing.
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