BITCOIN as expected making a stand at 6750. Can it hold and rally? Silver!! Are you watching? Statman commentary and several key charts.
Good afternoon this Monday, my friends.
First to BTC. Unable to sustain 7700 exactly as forecast since we expected a failed rally attempt a short while back off the 7150 level we are alarmed. This "sentiment investor" has learned in almost 40 years in the markets nothing trumps sentiment when understanding market movement. I respect charts and below is about all you need (if you know sentiment).
Most of you can see support. You can see resistance at about 7500 now. What you can't see is STILL today we have shockingly 80 percent of traders "long". What is it going to take to get sentiment in the right place for me to HEADLINE: Statman says buy!! Pick a level. I will watch sentiment indicators whether is is 6000 and 4 weeks away, or lower. It is a waiting game. If you are long, hold. My last sell was 9750 after I had announce buy on April 13th at 6750.
Silver! Please see the charts below of AG Thorson, a highly respected metals analyst I am very familiar with. WE are now knocking on 17.00 right in the seasonally weak period. And again, exactly as forecast here. Can we back up a little? Sure. We see this year 21.00. the fun begins 4-8 weeks out. You can (if you have been around) feel what is happening.
Above (sorry if a bit difficult to see in detail) is the Thorson charts (top to botoom) silver, gold, GDX the large cap. gold ETF, and the chart of the dollar soon to be in decline I feel.
Above is the silver seasonal chart. I don't expect it to be October before it really takes off this year but it may be and that's just fine. The 76-1 Gold-silver ration will will very quickly get back to 65-1. Again, 1450 gold, 21.00 silver is quite possible this year. Most don't believe it, of course, just like the crypto pages are full of Elliot Wave cheerleaders whose wave counts are just not working our for them (unless the market is going up!).
Thanks for the visit. Stay tuned! (UPVOTE appreciated).
Lots of people saying BTC would even fall lower and other people saying its up. I kinda feel mixed sentiment from twitter and other traders in groups here and in STEEM, and so I feel its still gonna go down further up until almost everybody is pessimistic about btc. What do you think sir @yankee-statman?
with 82 percent of traders "long"..any rally attempt fails...that simple. (maybe too 7500...thnx.
Go here https://steemit.com/@a-a-a to get your post resteemed to over 72,000 followers.
Support line is @6,571, should BTC break it, then it is no a triple bottom, but a descending triangle to 5,000.
agree 100 percent...there is no solid support here...we may well see 5000, or less. thanks.!
What a great setup on silver. Thanks for sharing. Seems like a lot of commodities have formed a nice breakout setup. I have been following corn and coffee especially. Any thoughts on those markets?
thanks!! and welcome..btw, I'm following you! While they are not on my radar...inflation has reared its ugly head and they will be going higher..Oil with more downside (after all it was 29.00 noit long ago..will go much higher. your take?
Commodities seem pretty cheap to me. I haven’t done an in-depth analysis on it but the stock to use ratio on coffee hasn’t been this low since 2011 and last time it was this low prices were quite a bit higher. And I think the corn stock to use ratio is supposed to drop as well. I don’t know much about the fundamentals of oil but sentiment seems good and looks like it might be putting in a second higher low on the monthly chart. But I am definitely keeping silver on the radar now. Thanks for the follow and looking forward to future post.
and thank you OW, I appreciate your opinion..commodities are cheap. Copper has already given a clue of late.
STOP