Honestly, I don't think there is something we can say. It is just too chaotic, too many moving parts, some already priced in, others not. Airdrops might be priced in already as well, at least the first X. Also, I expect some of the block producer candidates have collected quite some EOS. If they won't get elected, they might dump.

It is just too unpredictable what is going on. Let them first release one stable reliable mainnet and then I'll take another look ;-)

Edit: about the inflation, I don't think we'll see any effect of this. People simply don't look at this in this market. % of supply issued is one of the most overlooked metrics in the space. Check out https://onchainfx.com for instance and check Stellar and Ontology and try to determine whether their current marketcap is justified ;-)