Statistical Analysis Friday 27th April

TOWCESTER 4.40

5/2 Jurby, 11/4 Shanroe Saint,
7/2 Royal Sunday, 4/1 Totterdown,
10/1 Primogeniture, 20/1 Any Minute Now,
33/1 Sea Of Mystery, 50/1 Cut And Run,
100/1 Lucky Accord.

2m Novice Hurdle

Shapes like a 4 horse race
Primogeniture might challenge that
But as a 7yo with long absence
He would not be safe enough anyway

ROYAL SUNDAY is the weak link
I looked at similar Novice Hurdles
Run over 2m in April and May
Horses aged 4
1 hurdle start
Running within a month
Under 11 lifetime starts
Return a 0-69 record

JURBY has a reasonable chance
He is far from unbeatable though
As a last time out faller aged 8
I looked at similar Novice Hurdles
Run over 2m in April and May
Male horses aged 8 or more
Under 16 career starts
Absent more than 12 days
Return a 0-60 record
JURBY shares this 0-60 profile
Some have won over further
But none yet over 2 miles
So I can take or leave him

SHANROE SAINT has a chance
Well beaten in a Graded race last time
But he is still a maiden
He was only a 40/1 chance at Sandown
I think he is probably my danger
And is an option for a saver bet

TOTTERDOWN appeals most
If you look at 7 year olds
Who win hurdle races last time
They return an excellent 5-10 record
TOTTERDOWN shares this profile
Only 1 of the 5 winners was like him
But in a friendly frame to the race
I would make him my first choice
I could go win bet at 4/1 with a saver
Alternately I could go 4/1 each way
The each way bet looked sensible

Selection

TOTTERDOWN 9/2

Each Way

PUNCHESTOWN 5.30

10/11 Samcro, 2/1 Melon, 8/1 Supasundae,
10/1 Wicklow Brave, 20/1 Coquin Mans,
20/1 Min, 50/1 Bleu Berry
100/1 The Game Changer.

Punchestown Champion Hurdle
This should be very interesting

SAMCRO has a massive reputation
He won at Cheltenham's festival
Delivered as the festivals talking horse
He won the 2m 5f Ballymore hurdle
That race is only against novices
SAMCRO now takes on the big league

I do have to wonder about that
Does this race suit his career path ?
Or is he here for the trainers title ?
I find question marks in his profile

SAMCRO only has 7 lifetime starts
All recent winners had plenty more

He also has to come from a 2m 5f race
No recent winner managed that
None came from Novice races either
SAMCRO has a 159 Racing Post Rating
MELON beats that with a 166 rating
He finished second to Buveau D'Air
That was in the Champion Hurdle
That sets a pretty impressive standard
Win lose of draw the statistical choice
MELON is my preference over Samcro

Some of these have no chance
MIN does have a punchers chance
He ran at Aintree and again 3 days ago
Another who probably shouldn't run
Here because of trainer prize money
Recent runs are not the ideal in this
Past winners were all absent 27 + days
Those racing within 27 days were 0-17
MIN with a recent run fails this statistic
SUPERSUNDAE has the same problem
He ran just 15 days ago at Aintree
He also has to come down from 2m 4f
If the big runs repeat their best form
SUPERSUNDAE will struggle to win it
WICKLOW BRAVE is underraced as a 9yo
Having raced just the once in 171 days
COQUIN MANS needs to improve again

SAMCRO could well be a future star
He should in time be better than Melon
But right now my angles question him
He is not like any of the recent winners
MELON in contrast is like past winners
He may not have Samcro's sex appeal
At a bigger price with better numbers
He should really be the selection

Selection

MELON 9/4

Win Bet if 9/4
Each Way Bet if 5/2

PUNCHESTOWN 6.05

5/2 Pallasator, 5/1 Scarpeta, 6/1 Whiskey Sour,
6/1 Debuchet, 7/1 Duc Des Genievres, 8/1 Getabird,
14/1 Dortmund Park, 16/1 Blow By Blow, 16/1 Delta Work,
20/1 Real Steel, 25/1 Cartwright, 33/1 Burrows Saint

Champion Novice Hurdle
Hurdle race over 2m 4f

GETABIRD ran 3 days ago beaten 22 lengths
BLOW BY BLOW ran 2 days ago beaten 29 lengths
CARTRIGHT ran 3 days ago beaten 15 lengths
DELTA WORK ran 2 days ago over much further
WHISKEY SOUR ran 3 days ago beaten 13 lengths

5 Horses
All ran in the last 3 days
I am opposing these horses
Some are running for trainer prize money
Maybe not because they should be doing

I have been surprised this week
How many quick returners there are
Hadn't noticed it at this track before
The following statistic persuades me

Punchestown Festival
Since 2009
Graded Hurdle races
Any and every Distance
Horses that ran within 13 days
Have a 0-61 record in these races

That shows coming back very fast
Has never worked in these races here
I'm against the recent returners
REAL STEEL pulled up last time
Didn't feel he offered enough
No winners dropped down from 3m
DORTMUND PARK does this today

DEBUCHET would not be first choice
His main rivals have more positives
Most have an extra hurdle run
Most have an extra run this year
And he also has to step up in trip

SCARPETA has his chance
But with 17 Career starts
He is more exposed than most winners
And he has 13 races on the flat as well
These factors lose him points

DUC DES GENIEVRES is not safe enough
Went into a lot of notebooks on debut
He was then 2nd to Samcro in a Grade 1
No shame in that run at all
I made him a negative at Cheltenham
He just did not have enough hurdle runs
All past winners had more than him
Most of his rivals had at least 2 more
Defeat was predictable at Cheltenham
That may have knocked him back
May have been too big an ask too early
He flopped at Fairyhouse last time
He just put up a very soft performance

PALLASATOR has every chance
One question would be his age
He is 9 years old now
None tried recently to win his age
Very few run in any Grade 1 Novice
So I see him as a neutral statistically
But his numbers persuade me more

Last time out Racing Post Ratings

Pallasator 151
Delta Work 150
Debuchet 141
Whiskey Sour 140
Scarpeta 138
Cartwright 137
Getabird 131
Dortmund Park 129
Duc Des Genievres 127
Blow By Blow 125

PALLASATOR posted a 151 rating
Thats in the ball pack of past winners
Better than many just behind some
Aside from DELTA WORK (150 rating)
Who we already established is unsafe
Running over 3m just 2 days ago
PALLASATOR is miles clear of the rest
Comes here with 2 career bests in a row
He could improve again on better ground
He only needs to maintain his form to win
And needs to run some way below form
To be kicked out of the frame

Selection

PALLASATOR 3/1

Each Way

TOWCESTER 7.20

4/1 Nickname Exit, 9/2 Riddlestown,
9/2 Very Live, 5/1 Fight Commander,
11/2 Bredon Hill Lad, 7/1 Oneida Tribe,
12/1 Some Finish, 16/1 Gun Shy.

Handicap Chase over 2m 4f

A couple of these are questionable

FIGHT COMMANDER has challenges
He drops from 3m 5f to 2m 5f
Thats a drop in distance of a mile
No horse won a similar race like him

NICKNAME EXIT is underraced
He has just 1 run since March 2017
Coming back 13 days after that run
He looks wrong and unsafe

SOME FINISH is not running well
He has 3 stinkers in a row now
GUN SHY may not be fit
Has only a couple of recent runs
Neither offered much promise
Looks like he hasn't reached fitness

VERY LIFE has a chance
But is a lightweight only rated 95
Not from a stable I care for much
ONEIDA TRIBE was hammered 13 days ago
Beaten as far as 108 lengths that day
That must raise doubts about him

RIDDLESTOWN could be the one
He is the class horse in the race
Comes here with a good run last week
In the middle of his best time of year
If you look at his individual profile

March-April - May
Running within 4 weeks
Under 13 runners
When facing these circumstances
RIDDLESTOWN has raced 25 times
He won 11 of them in a 11-25 record
He placed 1-2-3 in 20 of the 25 races
He has a strong track record as well

My main worry with him
The ground turning soft
Raining now and could be for hours
That stops him being a selection
But he is a must saver

BREEDON HILL LAD has a chance
Exposed 11yo good pop up on a good day
I like his individual chase record
In small fields of
Short of 2m 7f
He has a 6-17 record

On this ground he is overpriced

Selection

£4 Each Way BREEDON HILL LAD 15/2

£2 Win Bet RIDDLESTOWN 4/1