Statistical Analysis Friday 11 May
MARKET RASEN 3.15
9/4 Duke Debarry, 9/2 Just Milly,
5/1 El Presente, 6/1 Lex Talionis,
6/1 Our Kaempfer, 10/1 Theatrebar,
14/1 Bryden Boy, 16/1 Souriyan.
Handicap Hurdle over 2m 7f
The best option in this race
Might be OUR KAEMPFER each way
The case for him is there
He is best in smaller fields
Best in Class 2-3 or lower
Nicely placed off topweight down in class
Lost his way over fences
But can strike off 129 over hurdles
There are pointers towards him
Just not sure how reliable he is now
Wasn't keen on a few of these
EL PRESENTE's profile is inadequate
He is only 5 and lightly raced
With 1 run in just 160 days
I will be surprised if he took this
JUST MILLY is a mare
With 1 run in 160 days she is unsafe
LEX TALIONIS is a flat bred 5yo
Going up in trip he is beatable
SOURIYAN ran too badly last time
BRYDEN BOY is not running that well
DUKE DEBARRY is shortlistable
I'd have happier if he had a weak profile
But I can't find a good case against him
THEATREBAR has a solid chance
OUR KAEMPFER looks a reasonable bet
Without knowing how far I can trust him
Selection
£4 Each Way OUR KAEMPFER 5/1
£2 Win Bet THEATREBAR 5/1
CHESTER 3.35
5/1 Magic Circle, 6/1 Stargazer, 8/1 Dubawi Fifty,
8/1 Time To Study, Who Dares Wins, 12/1 Grandee,
12/1 My Reward, Nakeeta, Watersmeet, 14/1 Fun Mac,
14/1 Prince Of Arran, 16/1 Silver Concorde,
20/1 Cayirli, Jukebox Jive, Saigon City,
33/1 Shadow Sadness, Vent De Force
The Chester Cup
Handicap over 2m 2f
My records go back to 1975
No horse won aged 9 or more
SILVER CONCORDE is a 10yo
Horses aged 8 or more
Have a 1-44 record since 1998
SAIGON CITY is an 8 year old
Hard to trust an 8yo drawn 16 of 17
WHO DARES WINS was 4th last year
But that was off a rating of 92
This year he has a rating of 100
He has a harder task this year
When you also factor in Stall 15
Go back to 2008
Every Chester race
Any distance any time of year
Horses drawn 14 or higher
Have a 0-87 record
WHO DARES WINS has this problem
CAYRILI is drawn 17
Just 1 run since 2016 as well
JUKEBOX JIVE is drawn 14
Not the biggest of horses
Never ran in a filed this big before
NAKEETA is drawn 13
Asking a lot to win first time out
Especially as a 7 year old
The 2 seasonal debutant winners aged 7
Won off marks of 88 and 93
NAKEETA has to defy a mark of 108
Since Rainbow High won 17 years ago
No horse has won rated 104 or more
His breeding leaves me short of confidence
That Damsire's stamina index of just 6.7f
PRINCE OF ARRAN has 9st 7lbs
Since 2002 horses with 9st 7lbs or more
Have recorded a 0-25 record in this race
Won't find a rating of 107 easy
None since 2001 won rated 104 or more
If you look at last time out winners
There was a modest 3-63 record
All 3 winners were 4 year olds
Horses aged 5 or more
Winning last time were 0-40
SHADOW SADNESS fails this angle
His win was abroad so he gets a pass
Difficult to make a case for him
VENT DE FORCE has 1 recent run
Beaten 34 lengths just 20 days ago
STARGAZER deserves respect
He is a 5 year old with absence
He only has 8 career starts
If you go back to 1999
Only 1 winner had under 10 runs
That was a younger horse
His sire doesn't inspire me either
His only wins beyond 1m 6f
Came in races in Class 5 or lower
MY REWARD is a 6yo
He has raced once this season
Course winner has positives
Has to prove he can stay though
His sires runners over 2m 1f + are 0-21
Probably needs a career best though
TIME TO STUDY is a 4 year old
Horses aged 4 are 5-79
They all has 9st or less weight
Horses aged 4 with over 9st are 0-15
TIME TO STUDY fails this with 9st 6lbs
Since Rainbow High won 17 years ago
No horse has won rated 104 or more
TIME TO STUDY has a rating of 105
What could help him ovecome that
Is a good run just 9 days beforehand
Well drawn and a recent run
And the past winners aged 4
All had 7 10 10 13 14 career starts
TIME TO STUDY is a good fit with 12
Just a bit more weight than ideal
To find the last 4yo winner
Who carried 9st 2lbs or more
You have to go back to 1987
GRANDEE is a 4yo
With 12 runs and 1 this season
His profile is certainly acceptable
But stamina has to be proven
Look at the sire Lope De Vegas
Never bred a winner past 1m 6f
If you look at his turf only runners
They are 0-15 running past 12 furlongs
That does raise a serious concern
Shortlist
FUN MAC is a 7yo first time out
We know the 2 similar winners
Won off marks of 88 and 93
FUN MAC has to defy a mark of 101
But he was only beaten a length last year
Racing off a higher mark of 102
MAGIC CIRCLE is a 6yo debutant
Similar types won in 2003 2013 2017
Statistically he is acceptable
He was an excellent 5th last year
Not least because he was drawn 18
WATERSMEET is a 7yo
He has runs this season
He was a good 6th in this last year
Beaten only 2 lengths in the end
Having been in front a furlong out
Some said he didn't stay last year
Thats a dangerous assumption to make
Much as his sire hasn't had a 2m 2f winner
His runners in Class 4 or higher
Over 2m 1f and more are 0-12
Despite that he has strong claims
He went for home hard and early
He races off a 2lbs lower mark today
He carries 8lbs less weight this year
He's just broken the 2m track record at Wolves
WATERSMEET should be very competetive
DUBAWI FIFTY is a 5 year old
Statistically not the best age in this race
5yo's have an overall 3-90 record
But I think we should ignore that
In both the 2017 and 2016 renewals
There was a 5yo beaten a short head
If both had won those very close photos
Then that record would look far better
DUBAWI FIFTY has 52 days off
That is not the safest of absences
Not the safest of draws either
But his last 3 runs were all career bests
That makes him look well handicapped
Selection
£2.50 Each Way DUBAWI FIFTY 9/1
£2.50 Each Way WATERSMEET 11/1
MARKET RASEN 4.55
15/8 Too Much Too Soon, 7/2 Mahlerdramatic,
6/1 Elkstone, Mr Jim, 9/1 Derryfadda, 10/1 Amuse Me,
10/1 Midnight Mustang, Sirius Star, 25/1 Court Painter,
25/1 Scorpo, 40/1 Heritage Way, 100/1 The Society Man.
2m Handicap Chase
Not many can win this
Some of the lightweights look rotten
Just out of form and hammered recently
Horses running within a week
Beaten over 30 lengths in that race
Can make no sensible appeal
MIDNIGHT MUSTANG lost 93 lengths 3 days ago
AMUSE ME lost 57 lengths 6 days ago
SCORPO lost 82 lengths 6 days ago
COURT PAINTER lost 37 lengths 6 days ago
HERITAGE BAY offers nothing
THE SOCIETY MAN likewise
DERRYFADDA is too unsafe
Beaten 88 lengths recently
That was his first run since 2015
Could be a long way off peak fitness
SIRIUS STAR has 206 days off
Every chance he could need the race
Look at his trainer
Horses trained by Brian Rothwell
Since 2004 on sand, flat and jumps
Have a 15-872 record
The longest absent winner was 39 days
Those absent 40 + days were 0-196
Must be one of the worst trainers
For getting horses fit and ready
SIRIUS STAR must be avoided
Shortlist
TOO MUCH TOO SOON is respected
Recently upgraded to Dan Skelton
We muct expect improvement now
But he hasn't run for 342 days now
That is a pretty worrying absence
And at the November Ascot Sales
He was cheap and cost only £4000
ELKSTONE has a 95 day break
He has raced once in 155 days now
He has never won a race in 22 attempts
He could pop up but he is just average
And looks short of recent races
MR JIM has a chance
He has raced just once in 120 days
He is a threat but a beatable one
MAHLERDRAMATIC is topweight
Said to prefer right handed tracks
He is running pretty well right now
He ran into an improver last time
Beat his other rivals comfortably
He's only had 4 Chase runs
No surprise he lost on his debut
When facing 3 miles on soft ground
That was Wetherby on Boxing day
He also had topweight that day
On his chase debut in a Handicap !
Two solid Chase runs after that
And his best chase run last time out
Selection
MAHLERDRAMATIC 5/1
Each Way
KILBEGGAN 5.35
13/8 Plouios, 11/4 Cote Tete, 8/1 Montauk Flyer,
10/1 Commandant, Doctor P's Getaway, 14/1 Yaiza,
20/1 Cairnhill, Grandads Choice, Maple Lawn,
25/1 Meldrum Way, 33/1 Central Court, Fiesta Forever,
33/1 Golan Diamond, Oldcastle, Touchedbyanangel.
2m 3f Maiden Hurdle
PLOUIOS appeals the most
Could be a match with Cote Tete
COTE TETE didn't appeal much
Not the biggest of horses
Started big prices on his hurdles runs
PLOUIOS had caught the eye at Naas
Jumped well when there for a run
Started odds on last time
Would have been 1st or 2nd there
But came down at the last hurdle
Just feel he has more substance
And has found a softer race here
Selection
PLOUIOS 11/8
Win Bet
KILBEGGAN 6.05
11/10 The Holy One, 5/1 Minella Times,
6/1 Tenth Amendment, 8/1 Niven, 10/1 Ballybrowney Jack,
10/1 Glorious Legend, 20/1 Storm Rising, 25/1 Duke's Girl,
33/1 Dia Del Sol, Drakensberg, 33/1 Harlow, 33/1 Zinat,
66/1 Around The Block, 66/1 Earl Of Bunnacurry,
66/1 Jezarus, Josephina, Murphys Oscar.
Maiden hurdle
March April May June
Maiden Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 5
Under 3 career starts
Coming from a hurdle race
Absent more than 142 days
Have a 0-88 record in these races
MINELLA TIMES shares this profile
Decent connections
No doubt a promising type
And he ran a nice debut 173 days ago
It was however only against 4 year olds
THE HOLY ONE has several recent runs
Cost over twice as much as Minella Times
Ran into some smart types last time
When producing a career best run
Selection
THE HOLY ONE 11/8
Win Bet
NOTTINGHAM 6.15
4/1 Adorable, Worth Waiting, 5/1 Magnolia Springs,
11/2 Ganayem, 10/1 Chanson De La Mer, 10/1 Fraiha,
12/1 Life On Earth, 14/1 Bedwyyah, 20/1 Katleen, Tobruk,
25/1 Dieulefit, Floria Tosca, Jenoow, 33/1 Fresh Terms,
33/1 Now Then, 50/1 Cuillin, 100/1 Mistress Nellie.
Fillies Novice over a Mile
MAGNOLIA SPRINGS sets the standard
A good standard on her numbers
Racing Post Ratings of 90 and 89
She looks the each way bet
Obvious question mark is fitness
Like many she lacks a run this year
But her trainer has an excellent record
With seasonal debutants this season
Her main rivals do have problems
And there will be a lot of dead wood
ADORABLE is drawn 16
That could be a problem
Nottingham 8f races
Since 2012
Horses Drawn 12 or higher
With under 2 career starts
Have a 0-79 record
ADORABLE fails this draw stat
Nottingham 8f races since 2007
Horses Drawn 14 or higher
With under 2 career starts
Have a 0-66 record
ADORABLE fails this draw stat
Nottingham 8f races since 2007
Unraced horses
Drawn 12 or higher
Have a 0-89 record
LIFE ON EARTH fails this drawn 13
FLORIA TOSCA fails this drawn 15
WORTH WAITING is a seasonal debutant
Not convinced David Lanigan will have her fit
He hasn't had a winner absent 8 + weeks
Since as far back as 2016
That said she is in the Oaks
GANAYEM could be a danger
FRAIHA could also be a threat
Option 1
MAGNOLIA SPRINGS 7/2
Each Way
Option 2
£6.25 Win MAGNOLIA SPRINGS 7/2
£1.25 Win WORTH WAITING 7/1
£1.25 Win GANAYEM 8/1
£1.25 Win FRAIHA 8/1
The Market will assist later
See if there is any support
For the unraced Ganayem or Fraiha
I like Option 2 a lot on paper
But it is more than complicated
So I will go with Option 1
MAGNOLIA SPRINGS 7/2
Each Way
RIPON 6.25
Evs Rita's Man, 4/1 Super Major,
5/1 Metronomic, 9/1 Bow Street Runner,
10/1 Mister Moosah, 10/1 Fabella Bere,
33/1 Orientelle, 50/1 Single Estate,
66/1 Just Heather.
10f Selling race
Open to 3-4 year olds
18 of these races in May
All 18 winners had 5 + runs
Those with under 5 runs were 0-29
BOW STREET RUNNER only has 2 runs
SUPER MAJOR is a 3yo
He has just 1 run this year
Beaten a fair way in that race
And has to step up in distance
RITA'S MAN is older
Has just won at Beverley
Where he had Metronomic well behind
He should be too good for these
Selection
RITA'S MAN 11/10
Win Bet