Statistical Analysis Monday 7th May

WARWICK 1.30

2/1 Gortroe Joe, 4/1 Lungarno Palace,
6/1 Hidden Glen, 8/1 Ballygown Bay,
8/1 Javert, 12/1 Mahlermade, 16/1 Peur De Rien,
20/1 Kloud Gate, 20/1 March Is On, 25/1 Ruggiero,
33/1 General Picton, Midnight Trouble,
33/1vTennewrow.

Novice Hurdle over 2m 3f

GORTROE JOE has plenty of talent
He has not raced in 109 days now
Connections waiting for better ground
They have got that today

This could be a two horse race
LUNGARNO PALACE the danger
The other's don't look to offer much
Javert a 9yo with a long absence
Ballygown Bay is underraced
He's had just 1 bad run since October
Hidden Glen has never jumped a hurdle

GORTROE JOE has 4 hurdle runs
First came across him in October
Made him a negative at Cheltenham
He came there with a big reputation
Things haven't gone to plan this year
Running on the wrong ground
Trying to teach the horse to settle
But he has an engine and some class
This is about whether he can deliver

LUNGARNO PALACE has won a race
But his main dangers that day flopped
One injured another running badly
Had finished ahead of low grade types
GORTROE JOE offers more promise
He gets his ground and can show that

This is trainers local track
If I look at Warwick races during May
Dan Skelton has more winners here
Than anyone else with a 10-32 record
He likes to target this meeting

Selection

GORTROE JOE 6/4

Win Bet

BEVERLEY 1.55

2/1 Carey Street, 4/1 The Great Heir,
5/1 Howzer Black, 13/2 Rockin Roy,
7/1 Spring To Freedom, 10/1 Solesmes,
12/1 Zebzardee, 20/1 Percy Drake,
25/1 Allux Girl, 50/1 Biscuit Queen.

5f Novice

CARET STREET has 2 runs
He has the most experience
Racing Post Ratings of 62 and 78

That is not to be sniffed at
He has an 18lbs edge on the numbers
His nearest rival only has a 60 rating
So best numbers and most experience
Makes him a reasonable option here
Has to be at least a saver

ROCKIN ROY is unraced
He is sired by Fast Company
The sires unraced runners over 5f are 1-63
I see no reason to trust him first time
ZEBZARDEE is unraced drawn 10
Beverley since 2011
Unraced horses over 5f
Stall 10 or higher are 1-61
The only winner ended up rated 102

THE GREAT HEIR has raced once
Has 22lbs to find on Racing Post Ratings
Will improve but he may want further
Neither of his parents ever raced at 5f

HOWZER BLACK has ran before
But he ran well and looks promising
Nicely bred and looks a serious runner

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet HOWZER BLACK 9/2

£3.50 Win Bet CAREY STREET 2/1

BEVERLEY 3.05

7/2 Feebs, 9/2 Magic Pulse, 5/1 Equitant,
6/1 Big Brave Bob, 13/2 Wrenthorpe,
7/1 Life For Rent, 8/1 Tiger Lyon,
14/1 Mosseyb, 20/1 Bahuta Acha,
25/1 Undercover Brother.

3yo Handicap over 5f

11 past renewals
You want a recent race
10 of the 11 winners ran within 22 days
The only one that didn't had experience

Horses absent over 22 days
Under 11 career starts
Have a 0-42 record in this race
MAGIC PULSE fails this angle
She is unsafe as a filly absent 95 days
EQUITANT hasn't raced in 206 days
Throw in the widest stall she is rejected
WRENTHORPE is a seasonal debutant
Not the type that has won this race
He only has 3 career starts
The last 7 winners of this race
Had 5 11 9 11 8 8 6 previous runs
TIGER LYON lacks a recent run
His sires never had a 5f winner
MOSSEYB doesn't have a recent run
UNDERCOVER BROTHER is beatable
Didn't do enough last time out
BAHUTA ACHA was beaten to far last time
All winners came from Class 4 or lower
They were beaten under 12 lengths last time

One of 3 horses
Should be able to take this race

FEEBS
BIG BRAVE BOB
LIFE FOR RENT

LIFE FOR RENT has 1 run this season
The other pair have an extra run
That counts for plenty in this race

FEEBS is an ideal type
But a concern he is drawn 9
Beverley 5f races since 2011
3yo Males
Under 10 career starts
Drawn 9 or higher
Have a 1-31 record

BIG BRAVE BOB is quite progressive
He has some decent numbers
I'd rather be with him with each way

Selection

BIG BRAVE BOB 4/1

Each Way

AYR 3.20

13/8 Captiva Island, 11/4 Tildas Icon, 4/1 Leostar,
13/2 Wadiyatink Now, 12/1 Karamoko, 25/1 Lady Samback,
25/1 Shankill Castle, 33/1 El Mono Verde, Jackhammer,
40/1 Kennedys Field.

2m Maiden Hurdle

CAPTIVA ISLAND sets the standard
The Racing Post argue he is quirky
That is probably fair
But he still sets the standard
He still has the best numbers
And more importantly look at his rivals

Maiden Hurdles in May
Any Distance
There are 214 of these races

Horses from Bumpers
Running within 4 weeks
Beaten over 2 lengths in them
Horses with this profile
Have a 0-60 record

LEOSTAR fails that
Ran in a Bumper 16 days ago
Yet was beaten 20 lengths
That can not be a safe profile
He has no hurdle form either
He doesn't look a big horse either

TILDAS ICON is a 4yo filly
214 Maiden Hurdles in May
Any and every Distance
Fillies aged 4
Have a modest 1-53 record
Those running within 2 months
Had a 0-42 record
TILDAS ICON can't be safe
She has a 0-17 career record
Has to drop from 2m 4f to 2m

Look at 2m Maiden Hurdles
Any month of the year

Fillies aged 4 are only 7-359
Thats a strike rate of under 2%

Those down from 2m 2f + are 0-38
Those running during the summer
Between April and September
Have a 0-91 record
They are just not safe options

WADIYATINK NOW is an unraced mare
Unlucky if beaten by one of those
KARAMAKO hasn't done much

So quirky or otherwise
CAPTIVA ISLAND has little to beat
He was well beaten last time
But it was on heavy ground
Connections said he was ridden wrong
I agree it was far too aggressive a ride
He comes here with an absence
Statistically thats not a problem
And he has little to beat

Selection

CAPTIVA ISLAND 6/4

Win Bet

BEVERLEY 3.40

5/1 Nature Boy, 6/1 Tadaany, Talent Scout,
7/1 Relight My Fire, 10/1 Hitman, Supreme Power,
12/1 Jessinamillion, 12/1 Vincenzo Coccotti,
14/1 Aelius, Count Montecristo, 14/1 Essential,
16/1 Shamaheart, 16/1 Make On Madam,
20/1 Hernando Torres, Warrior's Spirit,
25/1 Chiswick Bey

7f Handicap

The Draw is a big factor here
Looked at all 7f races since 2011

No winners were drawn 15 or 16
NATURE BOY is favourite drawn 15
With a 40 day absence it's a big ask
HERNANDO TORRES is out drawn 16
Interested in the relationships
Between a high draw and absence

Beverley 7f races
Since 2011

Horses drawn 12 or higher
Absent more than 22 days
Return a 0-31 record
MAKE ON MADAM has this problem

The 3 past winners of this race
Had 2 or more runs that season
Absences of just 5 12 6 days
Basically you want a fit horse

15 of these races
All 15 winners ran within 29 days

Beverley 7f Handicaps
Any Time of year
Any Class of race
Since 2007

Horses aged 4 or more
Absent more than 63 days
Return a 0-66 record
They need to be opposed
SHAMAHEART fails that
RELIGHT MY FIRE also fails this
He is an 8yo absent 199 days
AELIUS also fails this angle

I want 2 + runs this season
TALENT SCOUT only has 1 run
As a 12yo would want more runs

Some of these are unnaceptable
COUNT MONTECRISTO is wrong
SUPREME POWER has the same problem
Both ran just 3 days ago
But were beaten 15 or more lengths

See no reason why they should overcome that
HITMAN hammered 25 lengths 10 days ago
WARRIORS SPIRIT the same problem

Both completely blew the start
HITMAN just came home in his own time
I'd have to respect him a lot
As he is well drawn
He has more runs this year than most

JESSINAMILLION has raced once this year
Beaten 14 lengths in that 10 days ago
He needs a lot of improvement in 10 days
CHISWICK BEY is a 10yo
Hammered both runs this year

VINCENZO COCCOTTI has a squeak
But running low numbers from a small yard

TADAANY has a chance
He is a 6yo with 1 run this season
I'd have liked more
His best numbers and both wins
Are over further later in the year
He is 0-11 over 7f
He is 0-12 racing before August
He is not my first choice

If I demand recent runs
More than 1 run this year
A good draw
There is only 1 option

ESSENTIAL 12/1

He ran at Catterick last time
Stall 1 in a big field
Raced on his own up the far rail
Maybe on the wrong part of the track

He is a 4yo
So were the last 3 winners of this
2 of them were similar
Under 14 runs and a recent run
Look at last years winner
He came from the same Catterick race

Big field
Lots of luck required
But we get 4 places
And a decent price

Hitman was considered as a saver

Selection

ESSENTIAL 12/1

Each Way

WINDSOR 4.20

11/4 First Selection, 5/1 Considered Opinion,
5/1 Medburn Dream, 13/2 Tai Hang Dragon,
7/1 Wind In My Sails, 8/1 First Flight, Fox Trotter,
12/1 Cricklewood Green.

8f Handicap
174 similar races in May

FIRST SELECTION is rated 96
He only faces a 0-85 class field
He looks beautifully placed here
He has a class edge on the field

TAI HANG DRAGON is a 4yo filly
Fillies aged 4 have a 4-68 record
Fillies aged 4
Running this season
With 7 + career starts
Return a 0-41 record in these races
TAI HANG DRAGON with 14 runs fails that
She only has 1 run this season
She looks beatable

CONSIDERED OPTION is a 4yo filly
Fillies aged 4 have a 4-68 record
Those racing first time out were 2-18
Not bad but both winners had more runs
CONSIDERED OPTION only has 4 runs
Lots of potential but lots to prove
From a stable that can leave them short
The trainers 4yo fillies in Handicaps
Throughout his entire career
That have under 6 career starts
Have not yet won absent over 38 days
Not really his modus operandi

FOX TROTTER has 1 run this season
Beaten over 14 lengths is a concern
Not impossible to turn that around
But he is very exposed and unreliable
He will appreciate the smaller field
But neither horse or trainer is trustable
And his best numbers and wins over shorter

FIRST FLIGHT is a 7yo
Just 1 run in 145 days now
Not keen that he drops back 2f
When absent only 9 days
Don't see a safe enough profile
WIND IN MY SAILS is a 6yo debutant
Never won before June
Never won in this class before
I see no reson to fear him
CRICKLEWOOD GLEN has a nasty absence
Has never won in this class
Has never won before last June either

MEDBURN DREAM is a 5yo seasonal debutant
No reason why he cant win this race
He was 3rd in this race last season

FIRST SELECTION appeals most
He should have the class to win this

Selection

FIRST SELECTION 5/2

Win Bet

WINDSOR 5.30

11/4 Bullingdon, 4/1 Silver Quartz, 11/2 Alexanderthegreat,
7/1 Bold Warrior, 8/1 Sod's Law, 10/1 Birthright, 12/1 Martinengo,
14/1 Brancaster, 25/1 Havana Breeze, 25/1 Koshi,
25/1 Mainsail Atlantic, 33/1 Valdizar, 33/1 Decoration Of War,
50/1 Amanda's Teddy

3yo Novice Stakes

The market suggests 2 runners

SILVER QUARTZ 15/8
BULLINGDON 3/1

That sounds reasonable enough
ALEXANDERTHGREAT is unraced
No obvious sign of support
SODS LAW hasn't dome much
Up in trip and not sure to stay
MAINSAIL ATLANTIC has been nibbled
Needs lots of improvement but could do

BULLINGDON each way at 3/1
Is one of the obvious options here
But I am turning him down
As he is Drawn 14 of 14
This is interesting

Windsor
Any and every race since 2011
Any distance Any Class Any Month

Horses drawn 14 or higher
Under 5 career starts
Return a 0-111 record here

SILVER QUARTZ looks safer
Has a far better drawn
Although not the biggest of 2yo's
Said to have developed over the winter
Connections on record as saying
He could be a Royal Ascot Handicap prospect
And his work is "getting better by the week"

Normally I wouldn't be interested
But the draw stat above temps me

There is a non runner
Which does reduced the impact of the draw

Selection

SILVER QUARTZ 6/4

Win Bet

---

---