Statistical Analysis Saturday 11th August

Ascot 1.05

9/2 El Astronaute, 11/2 Evergate, 6/1 Encore D'Or,
6/1 Gracious John, Line Of Reason, Tis Marvellous,
8/1 Foolaad, 10/1 Sir Robert Cheval, Tommy G,
10/1 Watchable, 14/1 The Daley Express,
20/1 Just Glamorous

Class 2 Handicap over 5f

10 renewals of this race
45 similar races elsewhere

The Past 10 winners of this race
All shared the following profile

Male horses aged 4-5-6
Running within 4 weeks
Beaten last time out
Not by more than 10 lengths
Class 2 Handicap last time

Horses who had this profile
Had a 10-33 record in 10 renewals

Horses with this Ideal profile

GRACIOUS JOHN
EL ASTRONAUTE
ENCORE D'OR
EVERGATE

WATCHABLE is an 8yo
LINE OF REASON is an 8yo

No horses aged 8 or more
Have won any Shergar cup race before
Over any distance or class of race
SIR ROBERT CHEVAL is a 7yo
Just 1 run this season looks a problem
JUST GLAMOUROUS looks underraced
Just1 heavy defeat in the last 77 days
Just 3 runs in the whole of 2018 as well

FOOLAAD is also a 7yo
None his age have won this race
Although he has just dropped 2lbs
He has never won off his current mark
His form seems to deteriorate after July
His best numbers all come before July
Not convinced he can deliver a career best
And he may well need one off his rating

TIS MARVELLOUS ran 7 days ago
His 14 length defeat damages his profile
45 similar races in August
Horses running within 11 days
Beaten over 8 lengths last time
Have a 0-25 record in similar races

Shortlist

EL ASTRONAUTE
Passes all my angles
Has never won off his current rating
But his numbers suggest he can do
Much depends on his draw in Stall 12

ENCORE D'OR
Perfect statistically
Stall 1 could be good or bad
But draw stats show it is the best draw
In similar races in a similar field size
He is better on the All Weather
But he has decent turf numbers
The 2008 2009 2012 2013
Came from the same race as him

GRACIOUS JOHN
Comes from the best trial race
Has the same profile as all past winners
So enough positives to respect
He is 0-9 on faster ground
He hasn't yet won on quick ground
He will appreciate any easing in ground

EVERGATE
Passes all my angles
Also comes from the best trial race
Never won off this rating before
But his last time out 2nd at Ascot
Was a joint career best Racing Post Rating

Selection

EVERGATE 5/1

Optional Savers

Gracious John 9/1
El Astronaute 6/1
Encore D'Or 8/1

Redcar 1.10

9/4 Capitan James, 3/1 Red Flower,
4/1 Rock Party, 6/1 Pair Of Savannas,
13/2 Bandola, 8/1 Notthewhitehart.

6f Seller
Captain James is a male horse
Fillies won the last 3 renewals
They won 7 of the last 8 renewals
Fillies with 4 or more career starts
Won 4 of the last 5 renewals
Bandola and Rock Party are fillies
They look like most past winners

No Selection

Haydock 1.20

7/2 Addis Ababa, 4/1 Ayutthaya
5/1 Humble Gratitude, 7/1 Rhosneigr,
10/1 Etefaaq, 12/1 No I'm Easy,
16/1 Snooker Jim.

I'd oppose the following

Humble Gratitude - Doubt he will stay
Ayutthaya - Don't like absence/weight
Snooker Jim - Short of recent runs

Alternative options

Rhosneigr - Profile not safe enough
Addis Ababa - Accetable but least experienced
Etefaaq is hard to read

No I'm Easy - As good a chance as many
No I'm Easy - Probably value in a hard race

Ascot 1.40

7/2 Cleonte, 4/1 Jukebox Jive, 13/2 Byron Flyer,
7/1 Lord George, 8/1 Hassle, 9/1 Fire Jet, 10/1 Soldier In Action,
12/1 Stars Over The Sea, 14/1 Manjaam,
20/1 Aussie Reigns, 33/1 Berrahri.

2m Handicap

CLEONTE 4/1 is trained by Andrew Balding
On career records in the Shergar Cup
Balding has 3 more winners than anyone
He is the best trainer at this meeting

I like CLEONTE each way here
There are a few doubts about some

HASSLE is a 9 year old
AUSSIE REIGNS is an 8yo
There have been 102 Shergar Cup races
Run over any and every distance
No horse aged 8 or more has won (0-39)

BYRON FLYER is a 7yo absent 42 days
102 Shergar Cup races
Horses aged 7 or more
Absent more than 2 weeks
Have a 0-55 record in all 102 races

SOLDIER IN ACTION is out of form
LORG GEORGE is a 5 year old
He's raced just once in 134 days
One run since March may not be enough
STARTS OVER THE SEA is underraced
He's had just 1 run since October
MANJAAM lacks positives

FIRE JET is a dangerous floater
But one with a lot of question marks
Never run at Ascot before
Never won in Class or over distance

JUKEBOX JIVE should be a threat
Not keen on the combination he has
Topweight and 5 weeks off as well
No 4yo absent more than 2 weeks
Has won any Shergar Cup race
Off a mark higher than 95 before
JUKEBOX JIVE has a rating of 100
Horses rated 95 or more
Absent more than 2 weeks
Have a 0-21 record in this race
He is not the biggest of horses either

CLEONTE is well treated off 92
All 4 runs this season suggest that
With Racing Post Ratings of 98 94 96 96
One worry is the jockeys first Ascot ride
But struggle to see 3 beating him

Selection

CLEONTE 7/2

Each Way

Cork 1.50

4/6 Mount Everest, 7/2 Girolamo, 9/2 Claim The Lady,
8/1 Ozone, 10/1 Duckett's Grove, 14/1 Calorific, 20/1 Improving,
20/1 Refulgence Star, 66/1 On The Bob, Sea Of Life,
100/1 Wild Willie Wynne

8f Maiden

This could be a match
Mount Everest v Girolamo

Claim The Lady has a breeding problem
Horses sired by Acclamation
Running over 8f or more
Under 2 career starts
Have a 0-55 record
Claim The Lady fails this angled
Partly why I say it could be a match

MOUNT EVEREST has raced once
Aidan O'Brien ran him in a significant race
One he often sends a good horse to
But he stunk in the market that day
Started favourite but never oozed confidence
I am not convinced he was there to win
He could easily win this race

MOUNT EVEREST win GIROLAMO place
Would be the safest way to play this
But thats extreme at the prices

GIROLAMO each way isn't a bad option
Given the concerns Claim The Lady has
Don't want to commit to Mount Everest
Then watch Girolamo winning the race
Which looks an obvious each way bet

Another option is the split stake
MOUNT EVEREST half stakes to £5
GIROLAMO half stakes at 5/1 to £5

That buys the favourite out of the race
I prefer MOUNT EVEREST out of the pair
Too many staking options for my liking

Haydock 1.55

9/4 Birds Of Prey, 9/2 Rashdan, 6/1 Play It Cool,
7/1 Mister Belvedere, 10/1 Atkinson Grimshaw,
10/1 Super Kid, Vent De Force, 33/1 Battalion.

12f Lady Amateurs race

Rashdan - 3yo with 4 runs
Not sure that will be enough
On a track as demanding as this
Play It Cool is absent too long
I'd avoid this pair

Birds Of Prey is respected
Given connections reputation
Looks a saver option around 9/4

Mister Belvedere is shortlistable
Could be an e/w bet if 7 run

Small Stakes race
No Selection

Newmarket 2.00

3/1 Shambolic, 7/2 Hello Bangkok, 4/1 Indigo Angel,
11/2 Hawthorn Rose, 6/1 Material Girl, 10/1 Delicious,
14/1 Emeraldsandpearls, 20/1 Yes Can Do.

All unraced 2 year old fillies
Trying to win first time over 7f
When the ground is soft

Breeding stats suggest
Indigo Angel is an unlikely winner
The sires never had a similar winner
Not first time over this far on this ground
Must be opposed in any match bets
Hello Bangkok is not safe enough either
Delicious is not safe on breeding angles
I would avoid the above horses

Hawthorn Rose is the "Money" horse
But no idea of ability or how she will run

Shambolic is strong on paper
But market weakness worries me
If she was fancied wouldn't she be shorter ?

Hawthorn Rose to be placed
Would not be a bad split stake bet
Given negatives against her and market support
You could have £5 place on her
And £5 win on another horse

It is a guessing game
I'd prefer to have some match bets
Opposing the likes of Indigo Angel

Newmarket 3.45

3/1 Main Edition, 7/2 Ajrar, La Pelosa,
4/1 Pennywhistle, 10/1 California Love,
16/1 Impulsion, 50/1 Model Guest.

Sweet Solera Stakes

LA PELOSA was 3rd in the Star Stakes
I oposed her that day for this reason

Horses sired by Dandy Man
Running in pattern races
Over 6 furlongs and more
Have a 0-54 record so far
LA PELOSA fails this again today
And it is much softer ground as well

She has another problem
The 2016 winner had 4 runs
Every other win in the last 20 years
Only had 1-2-3 career starts

Does this matter any more ?
Possibly not as one did it in 2016
MAIN EDITION also has 4 runs
Hard to know whether to trust that stat
Maybe she should be a saver bet

PENNYWHISTLE is interesting
With 2 runs she is like past winners

If I run some breeding stats
Sire with pattern winners
For 2 year olds on this ground over 7f +
Only 3 horses qualify

CALIFORNIA LOVE
MAIN EDITION
PENNYWHISTLE

I also like AJRAR
Opposed her last time out
She was set a very difficult task

With 7 runners spoiling e/w bets
Hard to stake a bet that is safe
This is one rather wobbly attempt

£5 Win PENNYWHISTLE 4/1
£3 MAIN EDITION 5/2
£2 AJRAR 4/1

Ascot 4.00

3/1 George Of Hearts, 100/30 Shaheen,
11/2 Roundhay Park, 7/1 Helvetian, 10/1 Bungee Jump,
12/1 Green Power, Snazzy Jazzy, 14/1 Consequences,
14/1 Ertiyad, 20/1 Tangled, 25/1 Rebel Streak.

3yo Handicap over 6f

GEORGE OF HEARTS is favourite
Seems to be very well touted in places
But he drops from 8f to 6f
Maybe he will overcome that
But I want a far safer profile
ERTIYAD has the same problem
But looks underraced this season

SNAZZY JAZZY has topweight
Yet he is also the least experienced
He's raced only once in 115 days now
No sigh he has trained on this year

I'd prefer a horse with 6-12 runs
Enough experience to handle the race
But not too exposed caught by the handicapper

Horses with over 13 runs
Have a 0-30 record in this race
BUNGEE JUMP is exposed with 22 runs
Never won within 2 grades of this race
HELVETIAN has 15 career starts
We know horses with over 13 are 0-30

TANGLED down in trip didn't appeal
GREEN POWER isn't first choice

SHAHEEN has 14 runs
More exposed than all past winners
But with a recent win just 5 days ago
In a career best Racing Post Rating
I would want him on my side

ROUNDHAY PARK is a positive
Coming from a good trial race

Shortlist

ROUNDHAY PARK 5/1
SHAHEEN 7/2

I'd make sure I couldn't lose
If either of these horses won
There is room for a Saver on Shaheen
With an each way bet on Roundhay Park

Redcar 4.35

5/2 Hernandes, So Near So Farhh, 11/2 Bill Cody,
6/1 Calliope, Urban Spirit, 12/1 Rock On Bollinski,
14/1 Sunhill Lad, 20/1 Kissesforeveryone,
66/1 Lots Ov, Tropical Bachelor.

1m 6f Handicap
Class 6 races
Horses aged 3 are best
Before last year they won this 5 in a row
Last year only 1 horse aged 3 ran
Made him a negative he still finished 2nd
I would prefer a 3yo

HERNANDES is a 4yo
He has 5 weeks off and topweight
He's raced just 3 times now in 2018
Yet has to give a lot of weight to the 3yo's
CALLIOPE is an older mare up 3 furlongs
I wanted a safer profile than that
URBAN SPIRIT is a 4yo with 66 days off
SUNHILL LAD has 1 run in 121 days
KISSESFOREVERYONE looks inexperienced
ROCK ON BOLLINSKI an 8yo debutant
I'd shortlist the strongest 3 year olds

Shortlist

BILL CODY 7/2

SO NEAR SO FARHH 9/2

The best trial race is at Beverley
The 2m maiden handicap 19 days ago
SO NEAR SO FARHH comes from this race
But I'd have liked a few more runs this year
Hard to split this pair
BILL CODY has to prove stamina
I'd make sure I couldn't lose if either won

Haydock 4.50

4/1 Nibras Again, 9/2 Toni's A Star, 11/2 Twentysvnthlancers,
6/1 Invincible Ridge, The Golden Cue, 7/1 Red Stripes,
10/1 Celerity, Mighty Zip, 14/1 Prezzie, 25/1 Secret Asset,
50/1 Minty Jones.

5F Handicap

The issue that appealed most to me
Was last time out Racing Post Ratings
These are the scored of all runners

67 Nibras Again
63 Invincible Ridge
52 Red Stripes
48 Celerity
45 Toni's A Star
44 Mighty Zip
37 Prezzie
33 Secret Asset
30 Twentysvnthlancers
30 The Golden Cue
26 Minty Jones

NIBRAS AGAIN has a comfortable edge
I appreciate this is a Handicap
But some of these are running bad numbers

THE GOLDEN CUE is a 3yo
Will do well to defy 8 weeks off
INVINCIBLE RIDGE is a 10yo absent 32 days
In similar races horses aged 10 or more
Absent more than 2 weeks are 1-58
That winner had far less weight
He also has Stall 11 of 11 as well
CELERITY has a 0-47 career record
Her numbers are consistently slow
SECRET ASSET too old at 13
MIGHTY ZIP is running too slowly

PREZZIE has been backed
She is a 3yo filly with modest numbers

RED STRIPES has a chance
But he is now 0-22 on Grass
That doesn't bother me much
But he wouldn't be first choice

TWENTYSVNTHLANCERS is hard to read
His last run makes him look opposable
But he runs well one race then flops
His numbers this year show inconsistency
TONI'S A STAR could win at his best

NIBRAS AGAIN may be able to outclass these
Whilst a 0-17 record will put several off
His recent numbers stand out to me
He has been running in better races

Goes from receiving weight off better horses
To giving weight away to inferior ones

The main issue is the trip
NIBRAS AGAIN has never raced at 5f
If this drop in trip suits him
He could easily outclass this field

Selection

NIBRAS AGAIN 3/1

Win Bet
or
Each Way

Redcar 5.05

7/4 The Knot Is Tied, 3/1 Artic Nel, 7/1 Auxiliary,
7/1 Jan De Heem, Midnight Warrior, 14/1 Miss Alfie Rose,
16/1 Saved By The Bell, 20/1 Crakehall Lad, Ilikeyoualot.

1m 6f Handicap

Division 2 of the 4.35pm race
The same principles apply here
I would prefer 3 year olds

THE KNOT IS TIED is a 3yo
He comes here with a very recent win
Where he had a bit in hand as well
That was over 2m and this is 1m 6f
His win 4 days ago was a career best
I would expect him to go very close
Automatic choice for me
I think he should win again

Selection

THE KNOT IS TIED 6/4

Win Bet

Lingfield 8.15

6/4 Global Warning, 2/1 Fearless Warrior,
5/1 Wiretap, 8/1 Power Of Life, 10/1 Kuwait Currency,
25/1 Thorn, 33/1 Goodwood Sonnet, Merlin's Magic,
33/1 Such Promise.

7f Novice for 2 year olds

FEARLESS WARRIOR is interesting
Because of her dam Princess Genista
Who has a magnificent record

This is Spooky

There are 2 horses
Called FEARLESS WARRIOR

Fearless Warrior 1 - ran between 2005 and 2010

Fearless Warrior 2 - Started racing this year

Both FEARLESS WARRIOR's
Had Princess Genista as there mother

I wrote the following 10 years ago
On 1000 Guineas day in 2008
When previewing a race
That Fearless Warrior (1) ran in !

" Princess Genista's family all radically improve in
the second half of their 3 year old campaign and
when stepped up to 2 miles. The family are late
developers and quite predictable. The brothers
and sisters all excelled over 2 mile trips. "

I also wrote this in 2008

" Princess Genista's record with her offspring
have lost all 24 times that they raced at 12f or
less yet they have racked up 15 wins at longer
distances. "

Move forward 10 years

Horses with Princess Genista as Dam
Have a superb 40-251 record
She has bred the winner of 40 races now

Those racing over 12f or more are 40-211
Those racing over 11f or less are 0-40

She has never bred a winner under 12f
She has never bred a 2yo winner

So as a 2 year old
Racing on only his second start
FEARLESS WARRIOR looks opposable

She may be more likely
Given a superb pedigree
And costing a bomb
To either win the 2019 Oaks !!!
Or the 2020 Ascot Gold Cup !!!

This leaves two sensible options

GLOBAL WARNING 11/10
WIRETAP 3/1

WIRETAP each way is an option
But if she blows up after 80 days

This could be another way

£6 Win Bet WIRETAP 3/1

£4 Win Bet GLOBAL WARNING 5/4