Statistical Analysis Saturday 12th May

LINGFIELD 1.55

5/4 Flattering, 7/2 Stream Song,
5/1 Cecchini, 8/1 Lady Of Shalott, 10/1 Perfect Clarity,
20/1 Ejtyah, 33/1 Litigation, Queen Of Connaught,
66/1 Casima.

Lingfield Oaks Trial

One of the main issues
FLATTERING's recent return
Won easily 7 days ago
Some say she was flattered
Others say she was different class
Clearly has plenty of talent
But could she be on the bounce

STREAM SONG is around 9/2
She has achieved the best numbers
But she has had more chances

She comes from a Class 4 handicap
That will put a few people off her
It shouldn't do that really
The 2011 and 2017 winners
Both came from Class 5 handicaps
She is described as tricky
She has cheekpieces on
All things that some may dislike
I have taken all that into account

Her opposition all have issues

CECCHINI - 1 Career start
LADY OF SHALLOT - 1 Career start
PERFECT CLARITY - 1 Career start

Go back to 1998 in this race
Horses with just 1 career run
Have a 1-33 record in this race

That is a low return in 20 years

Look at some of the prices
Of horses beaten with 1 run
3/1 2/1 2/1 6.4 5/2 6/5 7/2 11/8
Last years beaten favourite
Was once race beaten at 11/8

It makes all of them look unsafe

To be fair to CECCHINI
The only winner was in 2007
And also trained by Ralph Beckett
So she is following the same pattern
But she isn't convincing enough

Horses sired by Rip Van Winkle
Running over 10f or more
In Listed and Group races
Return a 0-15 record so far
CECCHINI is trying to improve that

So with once raced horses
Winning just 1 of the last 20 renewals
I am drawn to STREAM SONG here

They say she has a fiery temprement
That and her Class 4 handicap form
Has allowed her to be a backable price
She is trained by a Master

Last year John Gosden won this
With a horse from a Class 5 handicap
Who had several runs as well
Who did a Racing Post Rating of 77
When winning said handicap
STREAM SONG has done a 91 last time
She will not have been fully wound up
She is a bigger price than she should be

Selection

STREAM SONG 5/1

Each Way

HAYDOCK 3.10

Pertemps Network
Swinton Handicap Hurdle
1m7f144y (Grade 3) (4yo+)

13/2 Chesterfield, 7/1 Act Of Valour,
15/2 Capitaine, Silver Streak, 9/1 Optimus Prime,
10/1 Sizing Granite, 11/1 Havana Beat, John Constable,
12/1 Forth Bridge, The Unit, 14/1 Dear Sire, 16/1 Ashkoul,
16/1 William H Bonney, 20/1 All Set To Go,
20/1 Hassle, 20/1Lord Napier.

2m Graded Handicap Hurdle

The Ideal Profile

Horses aged 6-7
Coming from a Handicap hurdle
Coming from a 2 mile race
Coming from Class 2 or higher
Beaten under 20 lengths last time
Over 3 previous hurdle runs
Under 13 Hurdle runs
Beaten last time out
Under 11st 6lbs

Since 2003
23 horses had this profile
7 of these horses won
It is an excellent 7-23 profile
That provided these winners
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2017

3 Horses share this profile

WILLIAM H BONNEY
THE UNIT
ALL SET TO GO

2m Graded Handicap Hurdles
Any Time of year since 2007
96 of these races races

Horses aged 10 or more were 0-25
SIZING GRANITE is rejected aged 10
He comes from a Chase as well
All 20 horses doing that were beaten

Horses aged 9 or more were 3-89
Those with 9 + Hurdle runs were 0-70
HASSLE fails this 0-70 angle
He also has 574 days off

Look at this particular race

Horses aged 8 or more
Have a 0-61 record since 1998
None have won now in 20 years

HAVANA BEAT is an 8 year old
We know all 61 of those were beaten
He also won last time out
Last time winners are rarely win
Since 2001 Last time out winners
Have a 1-91 record in this race
Since 2007 they are just 0-53
He looks the wrong type to me

CHESTERFIELD is also an 8yo
Harder to rule out but age group 0-61
He also has 15 career starts now
9 of the last 10 winners of this race
Had under 13 hurdle runs

JOHN CONSTABLE has 11st 12lbs
High Weights have struggled
Horses with 11st 6lbs or more
Have a 0-29 record since 2003

Specialist 2 milers win this
Horses from 2m 3f of further last time
Have a 0-54 record since 1997
None have won this race in 20 + years
LORD NAPIER has this problem

ACT OF VALOUR is a 4yo
I would rather have an older horse
Horses aged 4 are 1-19 record since 2004
He also comes from a Novice Handicap
No past winner did that in 20 years

OPTIMUS PRIME comes from a Chase
All 20 horses doing that were beaten
Not jumped a hurdle in over 6 months
There are safer profiles in the race
Much as he was 2nd in last years race

CAPATAIN is fully respected
Excellent connections but he has flaws
Doesn't come from a great trial race
But what bothers me most about him
He has raced just once in 154 days

Look at the past renewals of this
Number of Runs that calendar year
They all had 2 3 4 3 3 2 4 3 6 4 3 3 runs
All winners had 2 + runs since Jan 1st
CAPATAIN only has 1 run since then
Statistically thats a potential problem
One that stops him being selected

SILVER STREAK is a 5 year old
Since 2008 horses aged just 5
Have a very modest 1-51 record
They did win 6 between 1997-2007
SILVER STREAK is absent 63 days
Longer than all 6 his age but only just
He's never won off this rating before
He is also quite exposed for a 5yo
Look at the 6 winners aged 5 since 1997
They had 4 5 5 4 8 9 previous Hurdle runs
SILVER STREAK has 10 more than any
The stats he fails he only just does so
He could easily be a saver on the ground
But his age takes points off his profile
Something else worries me about him
Two runs ago in old Tote Gold Trophy
He fell at the second hurdle that day
It means he has had just 1 proper run
Since before Christmas which worries me

ASHKOUL is also a 5 year old
Better match with 5 hurdle runs
But he won his previous race
Since 2001 Last time out winners
Have a 1-91 record in this race
Since 2007 they are just 0-53
Not for me from a Class 4 Fakenham race
Horses from Class 4 or lower were 1-57
Those from Class 4 Handicaps 0-23
ASHKOUL doesn't offer enough
FORTH BRIDGE is a 5 year old
Possible he could improve and win
But I'd rather stay with older horses

DEAR SIRE is a 6 year old
Main worry is 19 hurdle runs
Past winners Hurdle runs
11 4 4 11 21 8 12 7 12 7 5 5 4 8 5
14 of the last 15 winners
Had under 13 hurdle runs
DEAR SIRE looks extremely exposed

Shortlist

ALL SET TO GO shares the "ideal profile"
Just survives it with 12 hurdle runs
He downgraded from Paul Nicholls
Went to a small yard after 461 days off
His 2 runs since are pretty modest
Not sure what ability he retains
Not sure how likely he is to show it

THE UNIT is an Alan King 7yo
Shares an ideal profile with 7 past winners
If the race is run to suit should go well

WILLIAM H BONNEY has 13 hurdle runs
On the cusp of the ideal profile
His 2 runs in 2018 were below par
That and defeat in this last year a worry
But they were 2 very high class handicaps
Almost the biggest two of the season

Selection

£2.50 Each Way THE UNIT 14/1

£2.25 Each Way WILLIAM H BONNEY 16/1

£0.50 Win Bet ALL SET TO GO 20/1

HEXHAM 4.05

7/2 Well Smitten, 5/1 Nemean Lion,
11/2 Quest For Life, 7/1 Arthurs Secret,
7/1 Red Danaher, 10/1 Ten Trees, 12/1 Moscanisi,
14/1 Howwoulduno, Its Pandorama,
20/1 Full Shift, 25/1 Sigurd.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f

Tricky race of different types
Some lighter raced types
Some horses with unproven fitness
Some with plenty to prove

MOSCANISI is very lightly raced
Too short of experience to interest me
When he has such a long absence

WELL SMITTEN has 3 hurdle runs
Can't rule his type out from winning
Neither own particularly good profiles

HOWWOULDUNO may be underraced
He has raced once in 11 months
TEN TREES also looks short of runs
She is a mare with a run since 2016
FULL SHIFT is an unsafe choice
SIGURD may have too much to do
NEMEAN LION is a 6yo with a break
Not too bad a profile quite lightly raced
But he was sold cheaply last season
And no guarantees he can improve

IT'S PANDORAMA has a chance
He has been nibbled at a big price
He did a career best two runs ago
Last time made a terrible early blunder
No shock were he to win this race
Looks quite a light framed horse

QUEST FOR LIFE is running well
His profile is fine and he has a chance

ARTHURS SECRET is interesting
He was beaten 48 lengths last time
Statistically he is not a safe bet
He needs this drop from 3m 1f to 2m 4f
If you look at his sire Sakhee's Secret
He has yet to get a winner beyond 2m 4f
He has a stamina index of just 7.5f
So a fast ground 2m 4f should be ideal
ARTHURS SECRET didn't stay last time
Round the final bend he was going well
Maybe hasn't stayed in all his 3m races
This is a good chance for him to win
Even if my statistics are not convinced
I see it as a neutral unproven profile

Selection

£4 Each Way ARTHURS SECRET 13/2

£2 Win Bet QUEST FOR LIFE 4/1

THIRSK 6.15

3/1 Rantan, 4/1 Rozy Boys, 5/1 Juan Horsepower,
5/1 Shesthedream, 6/1 Town Charter, 10/1 Aragon Knight,
16/1 Little Kingdom, Vintage Dream, 20/1 Market Choice,
33/1 Its Happened Again, Silk Mill Blue, Yorkshire Rover,
66/1 Mr Wing, Roman Times.

Selling race over 6f
For horses aged 3-4-5

Only a handful of similar races run
No strong age statistics are prevalent

Half the field have no chance
Outclassed and not offering enough
I include Aragon Knight in that
Given poor recent numbers
And having been sold this year for £600
Market Choice hasn't been doing enough

This should involve 5 horses

ROZY BOYS is a 4yo with 1 run this season
Horses aged 4 with 1 run this season
Have a 0-25 record in similar races
Those with under 10 career starts
Have a 0-10 record in similar races
He is inexperienced
He has to go up in distance
And is short of runs this season

All year round
Sellers for 3-4-5 year olds
Over 5f 6f 7f 8f
Horses with under 6 runs
Absent more than 6 days
Have a 0-57 record
ROZY BOYS shares this 0-57 profile

Tony Coyle runs two horses
Neither are guaranteed to be fit
TOWN CHARTER has 169 days off
All 4yo winners had recent runs
He will do well to beat the fitter horses
SHESTHEDREAM is a 5yo Mare
Worries me she has just 1 run in 190 days
She ran well at Beverley last time
But she does have to step up in distance
And was sold for just £1000 last year

The fittest horses
With the most recent runs

RANTAN
JUAN HORSEPOWER

RANTAN has every chance
Should win at the weights
If he can deliver on faster ground
JUAN HORSEPOWER gives him weight
But he has 2 more runs this calendar year
And may have gone off too fast last time

Selection

£7 Win Bet JUAN HORSEPOWER 4/1-9/2

£3 Win Bet RATTAN 9/4