Statistical Analysis Wednesday 9th May

CHESTER 1.50

2/1 No Lippy, 7/2 Kinks, 4/1 Lihou,
8/1 Dark Thunder, 11/1 Arthur's Spirit,
12/1 Lady Prancealot, 14/1 Jensue,
25/1 Thegreyvtrain, 50/1 Gingersdunthelot.

Lily Agnes Stakes

Low priority this year
On Racing Post Ratings
Kinks is the 2nd best 2yo
To have run in 2018 so far
Stall 11 killed initial interest
But there are 3 non runners
Dark Thunder didn't appeal much
Didn't do enough just 9 days ago
Going with KINKS each way
Not too happy about the draw
But with fewer taking part now
I will risk him with smart numbers

Selection

KINKS 7/2

Each Way

KELSO 2.00

Evs High Jinx, 15/8 Calix Delafayette,
6/1 Hills Of Connemara, 10/1 Cathal's Star,
20/1 Templenaboe, 33/1 Russiantom,
50/1 Reaplee, 100/1 Ella's Dene,
100/1 Painters Lad.

2m 5f Novice Hurdle

HIGH JINX is a very classy flat horse
But he is 10 years old now
He has raced just once in 180 days
He could well be on the bounce
And he has no hurdle form at all

Look at all hurdle races since 200
Any distance any time of year
None went any horse as old as 10
Without having previous hurdling runs

CALIX DELAFAYETTE is a safer choice
Perhaps not as safe as I'd like
Given he has raced just once since November
But he is 4 years younger
He has more hurdling experience
And has some acceptable numbers
HILLS OF CONNEMARE is respected
But his hurdle numbers need improvement
And starting 40/1 + 66/1 in those races
From a small stable not convincing

Selection

CALIX DELAFAYETTE 5/4

Win Bet

CHESTER 2.25

7/2 Magic Wand, 4/1 Kinaesthesia,
11/2 Dramatically, Princess Yaiza, 13/2 Award Winning,
7/1 Shaherezada, 12/1 Forever Together,
14/1 Hazarfiya, Shailene, 25/1 Here's Alice.

Cheshire Oaks

3 seasonal debutants this year
No first time out winner since 2002
The last 15 winners had raced that year
Forever Together is rejected first time
SHAHEREZADA has not races this year
KINAESTHESIA also lacks a recent run

DRAMATICALLY has a negative profile
Horses from 7f races
More than 1 career start
Have a 0-39 record
DRAMATICALLY is rejected
HAZARFIYA was beaten too far last time
SHAILENE is hard to select above a few

Shortlist

AWARD WINNING

MAGIC WAND

PRINCESS YAIZE
Go back 20 years in this race
No horse won drawn 9 or more
PRINCESS YAIZE is drawn in Stall 10
That is a problem but hard to rule her out
On last time out Racing Post Ratings this year
She has the best numbers by a long way
It earns her a role as a saver

Selection

£4.50 Each Way MAGIC WAND 7/2

£1.00 Win Bet PRINCESS YAIZE 9/1

CHESTER 3.00

7/2 Formidable Kitt, 4/1 Spoof,
9/2 Showmethedough, 8/1 Big Time Maybe,
8/1 Global Academy, 9/1 Billy Dylan,
10/1 Looks A Million, Porchy Party,
14/1 Angel Force, 25/1 Joegogo.

3yo Handicap over 5f

Not worth a long preview
Not enough races like this

The past winners of this race
Returned Racing Post Rating of 96-106
10 of the 11 past winners
Came from the top 6 in the weights

ANGEL FORCE may find that beyond him
PORCHT PARTY is a similar lightweight
May fall short especially from his draw
SHOWMETHEDOUGH 8th in the weights
Not overkeen on him with 4 runs anyway
A past winner did have under 6 runs
But I prefer 6 or more as most had that
And all the lightly raced winners
Did not have recent runs as he does
JOEGOGO has a horrible draw

FORMIDABLE KITT is a filly
She has 248 days off the track
With 4 runs not a very safe profile
But the stable do need respecting
Obviously a high draw is an issue
BILLY DYLAN is not well drawn in 8

BIG TIME MAYBE has stall 7
Not a perfect draw or absence

LOOKS A MILLION is drawn 1
Didn't appeal much on his profile
Hammered at 66/1 in a Listed race

SPOOF is appealing on paper
95 rated horse facing a 0-88 class field
Any other trainer and I'd be excited

GLOBAL ACADEMY is interesting
Again not a stable Ilike much
But he has raced 5 times in 2018
His main rivals have the following runs
2 1 2 0 2 1 0 2
GLOBAL ACADEMY could have an edge

Selection

£4 Each Way GLOBAL ACADEMY 8/1

£2 Win Bet SPOOF 11/2

CHESTER 4.05

9/4 Argentello, 3/1 Baritone, 5/1 Soldier To Follow,
11/2 Howman, 7/1 Chief Ironside, 10/1 Infrastructure,
20/1 Moon of Baroda, 25/1 Heart Of Soul,
66/1 Rockesbury, 100/1 Snoop

10f Maiden race

Not many should be able to win
BARITONE is one but has stall 10
In all Chester 10f + Non handicap
Since 2007
Horses drawn 9 or more
With under 5 career starts
Return a modest 1-45 record
May not stop him winning the race
But it gives an edge to his rivals
ARGENTELLO has that extra recent run
Better drawn as well he is just preferred
HOWMAN's profile is also positive

Selection

£8 Win Bet ARGENTELLO 7/4

£2 Win Bet HOWMAN 4/1

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.55

11/4 City Dreamer, 7/2 Full Suit, 8/1 Air Ministry,
9/1 Hewouldwouldnthe, 9/1 Casemates Square,
10/1 Sheriff Garrett, Three Colours Red, 14/1 Brigadoon,
14/1 Down Time, 16/1 Party Royal, 22/1 Ballyfarsoon,
33/1 Ladurelli.

2m Amateur Riders Handicap
FULL SUIT has a quality jockey
But also has a couple of problems
Only 3 career starts is inexperienced
He also has Stall 12 to contend with
In recent 2m races here since 2014
Horses drawn 10 or more are 2-71
FULL SUIT has plenty to prove here
CASEMATES SQUARE is badly drawn
Unlikely to be fit enough as well
BRIGADOON makes limited appeal
Aged 11 and sprint bred as well

We should be looking for horses
With similar profiles to these

AIR MINISTRY
CITY DREAMER
SHERIFF GARRETT
Several staking options
CITY DREAMER is just prefered
Could bet him each way or with savers

Selection

£8 Win Bet CITY DREAMER 100/30

£2 Win Bet SHERIFF GARRETT 4/1

GOWRAN PARK 7.05

2/1 Aiseolas, 4/1 Imrana, 5/1 Chilled White,
13/2 Lady Boomerang, 8/1 Shemara, 10/1 Tissiak,
20/1 Bated Beauty, Cascella, Deramore Park, Karannelle,
33/1 Aussie Dream, Stormy Falls, 50/1 Divine Approach,
50/1 Volatile Lady, 100/1 Candle In The Wind,
100/1 Dathuil Dearg, 100/1 Lorente.

Fillies Maiden
Over an extended 9f

IMRANA is unraced
On soft ground just short of 10f
It will take some getting for a debutant

If you look at her sire Azamour
His unraced runners
Over 9f and more
Have a modest 1-59 record
That winner was on good ground
None have won beyond a mile on softer

SHEMARA will do well to win on debut
Her sire's unraced horses are 0-42
And thats in any kind of race
DERAMORE PARK is her stablemate
Hard to find positives for her
LADY BOOMERANG is drawn far too high
BATED BEAUTY lacks positives
All her sires winners beyond a mile
Have taken 4 or more career starts
TISSIAK is unraced
She is probably a bigger danger

AISEOLAS is interesting
Bitter Sweet profile

The Sweet side is her numbers
She has achieved the most
She has a good draw
She has a solid run just 4 days ago
She could be far too sharp for these

On the bitter side
She has run over 5f 6f 7f
This is now over 2 furlongs more
And with a 4 day absence
That could be a problem
Statistically that is hard to assess
A horse did it during October in a similar race
But none earlier from few that tried
I could make her a positive or negative
What also worries me about her
The sires runners over 9f +
When on ground softer than good
Have a rather unpleasant 1-61 record
In fields of 6 or more they are 0-57#8

CHILLED WHITE is also interesting
Has potential as an each way bet
She has raced twice once this year
Last year on debut she failed a draw stat
She was 4th on her 3yo debut 18 days ago
Beaten 6 lengths didn't set a high standard
But she probably needed the run that day
And wasn't beaten up on bad ground
And she will appreciate this extra distance
She is an obvious each way option
The alternative is a win bet and saver
Which just made a bit more appeal

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet CHILLED WHITE 11/2

£3.50 Win Bet AISEOLAS 9/4

GOWRAN PARK 7.05

13/8 Knowing You, 5/1 Midnitemudcrabs,
7/1 Extrasensory, 9/1 Prove The Point, 10/1 Beach Wedding,
10/1 Stormy Belle, 12/1 Gentil J, 14/1 Wild As The Wind,
16/1 Syndicate, 20/1 Elusive Duchess.

Fillies Handicap over a mile

35 of these races in May

KNOWING YOU is hard to read
Just 4 runs
Just 1 run this season
And going up in trip

Horses with under 7 runs
And 1 run that season
Have a 0-12 record in similar races
But it is a small sample size
She also has to prove her stamina
Even with topweight on soft ground
No surprise were she to win

Runs in 2018

7 Prove The Point
4 Midnitemudcrabs
2 Extrasensory
1 Knowing You
1 Beach Wedding
1 Wild As The Wind
1 Stormy Belle
1 Elusive Duchess
0 Syndicate
0 Gentil J

Some of these may not be fit

WILD AS THE WIND has 1 run this year
Hammered 34 lengths in that race
ELUSIVE DUCHESS didn't do enough last time
STORMY BELLE has similar problems
And she has to drop 3f in distance too

EXTRASENSORY was hammered last time
She is only 3 and started 50/1 last time
I don't see her as safe enough
SYNDICATE has 329 days off
Also unproven on the ground
GENTLE J also lacks a run

BEACH WEDDING is a 3yo
He is up in trip with 1 run this season
She has a hard to read neutral profile
Out of the handicap as well

MIDNIGHTMUDCRABS has 4 runs this year
More than all her rivals drawn 1
She has to be respected because of that
She is up in distance though
She has to prove she will get 8f here
She is 0-7 over a mile and more
And if you look at her Draw 10 of 10
It's probably the toughest draw in the race

PROVE THE POINT has 7 runs in 2018
3 more than any other horse
5 more than all bar 1
She must be the fittest horse
Given a short 4 day absence
She doesn't have to come up in trip
No worldbeater and very exposed
But she stays
She has twice won on bad ground

Against her she is up a bit in class
She will be vulnerable to improvers
And having had 3 runs in 25 days
All on heavy ground as well
There may be a danger she needs a break
Given her price though and fitness
Going to give her a chance

Selection

PROVE THE POINT 9/1

Each Way