⚽ Premier League What Ifs?
At the end of the 2020/21 Premier League season, I wrote a post reviewing how the Premier League might have ended differently if certain scenarios had happened. It was a post that I enjoyed researching and writing so here it is again, this time for the recently completed 2021/22 season.
What if teams had won the games they dominated?
Using data from understat.com, we can review a team's "Expected Points" to see where they would have finished if they'd have scored and conceded the goals that they were expected to. Last season, Brighton finished 17th and should have finished 5th, securing themselves a spot in the Europa League.
Once again, Manchester City deserved to win the title and interestingly, the top 5 all finished where they deserved to.
Crystal Palace's "Expected" 6th place finish goes to show the remarkable job that Patrick Vieira's done since becoming manager - the season before, they should probably have been relegated. It appears that it was their defence that let them down and their late goals conceded to Brighton remain in my memory.
It's also notable that Brentford "should" have finished 7th. They fell away a bit at the end but had a great season regardless.
In the relegation spots, all 3 sides deserved to go down and will be playing Championship football next season.
What if Antonio Conte had been appointed sooner?
Having been appointed at the beginning of November, Conte was Tottenham's manager for the majority of the season and only missed their opening 10 matches. He's clearly made an impact though and a 3rd placed finish would have seen them ahead of Chelsea. Still in the coveted Champions League spot.
What if Eddie Howe had been appointed sooner?
When Eddie Howe was appointed, Newcastle were in a real relegation battle which Howe quickly got them clear of for a comfortable mid-table (11th placed) finish. Under Howe though, Newcastle could have been far higher up the table and claiming a Europa League spot. Given how they've strengthened during the summer, they could well be challenging for Europe over 2022/23.
What if Sean Dyche had been sacked sooner?
3 out of Burnley's 7 wins this season came after Dyche had been sacked. Although it's difficult to compare teams when they have played a different number of matches, his sacking appears to have been the correct decision, despite not quite managing to avoid relegation.
What if there were only the "big-6"?
In 2020/21, Liverpool led the head-to-head but this time, things were different...
| Po. | Team | Pl | W | D | L | F | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 20 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 25 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 10 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 11 | 13 |
| 4 | Spurs | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 11 |
| 5 | Man Utd | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 23 | 11 |
| 6 | Arsenal | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 25 | 9 |
Perhaps it's unsurprising how far ahead Man City and Liverpool are at the moment and Liverpool's unbeaten record against their closest rivals is also impressive.
Arsenal's young team and inexperience in the crucial games ultimately saw them miss out on Champions League football next season. Having finished just 2 points behind Spurs, it's clear when looking at this table that Arsenal need to improve for the big games.
I'm particularly looking forward to how Newcastle get on next season and if Spurs can challenge Man City and Liverpool. Many of us thought that Chelsea would put up more of a fight this season but perhaps didn't expect Romelu Lukaku to be such a disappointment.
The mid-season World Cup could also have a big impact, especially as players don't seem to be allowed much of a break any more - Good news for the bigger clubs with deeper squads who can also make use of the 5 subs next season.
Please let me know what you think in the comments...
Mr. Gorilla... hope you're doing good? Been a while since you posted anything
Hiya - Yeah, had a week away with the family and been unwell the last few days. Also gonna wind down a bit from Steemit and enjoy the summer sun 😎
How are things with you?
That's what I was thinking and I hope you get better soon..
I'm doing pretty good. Back to school, just waiting for what this trimester's got to offer me😊🙂
Be safe out there man 🙏🏾💪🏿
Hey man, you leaving?🤒
Very interesting, especially the ranking among the top six, which, if I am not mistaken, would remain more or less the same as the final PL ranking. There is a belief in Italy that the 'scudetto' is won by beating the small teams more than the big ones, and perhaps there is a kernel of truth in this belief, looking at Liverpool unbeaten against the other five.
I am curious to see what Conte will do next year with Tottenham: usually his best year is his first, but not having coached the team from the start he might well surprise.
It didn't cross my mind to do the same thing with Serie A but this is what the table would have looked like -
Inter should have won the league very comfortably.
I'm looking forward to Spurs next season. They've made some good signings although if Son Heung-Min goes to Real Madrid, things won't be looking so good!
What if Rangnick never came??😪😪 What if Ole never left? 😪😪
You really did all those calculations huh.. wow, that's great.
It's sad to see Norwich still didn't stand a chance either way... I like the team, real fighters. I hope they come back soon, I hope Pukki comes back soon😄
Ha ha - Man Utd still would've been rubbish 😆
I think that's the last we'll see of Pukki in the Premier League. The Norwich fans I know don't think that they'll get promoted again this season but we'll see. They seem to be too good for the championship but nothing like good enough for the Premier League.
🥲🥲
Yeah true but I wish them well ..
Are we doing another fantasy football season?
In all the scenarios, Manchester United still won't get the Champions League spot 😂😂🤣😂😂 what a team. I am tired of that team already.
Patrick Vieira did a remarkable job with Palace and I have to also admit to that.
Are you wondering when they're going to start to sign some players??
Exactly and also so many dead wood players are still on the books. They are wasting time chasing high profile De Jong. We need players who don't necessarily have the big name tag but would sweat for the jersey on the pitch.
I hope Man Utd suffer another season with me being a Spurs fan. They have made signings, but all depends if Ronaldo decides to stay.
Your hope won't manifest because with Ronaldo leaving is what I even want so we won't have to rely heavily on him. Spurs? You will get a wake up call this new season, don't worry.
As the season starts, I am more confident about Spurs :) and even less confident about United.
Good luck though! It will be a great season!
Even as a United fan, I am not confident. I am riding on hope 😂😂🤣
It looks like things might be happening - https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/12642018/tyrell-malacia-manchester-united-agree-13m-deal-for-feyenoord-defender-basic-agreement-for-frenkie-de-jong
Maybe time for some cautious optimism 🙂
Ah. That would be impressively amazing hahaha. Thanks for this. I've given up on reading their hopeful tweets and updates. At least this one gives me hope. Yaaaaaay.