Bitcoin tends to top when NUPL is higher than .8, it's at .62 currently...

What would you say if I told you I had an indicator that is basically 6 for 6 in terms of predicting bull market tops in the price of bitcoin?

Not every top in bitcoin, but bull market tops specifically, going back to 2010.

Pretty cool right?

Not only is it pretty cool, but it becomes incredibly useful as well!

Based on data from glassnode, that is exactly what we have with the NUPL.

NUPL is the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss in bitcoin.

The chart of which can be seen here:

(Source: https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=indicators.NetUnrealizedProfitLoss)

What does this mean exactly?

In very basic terms a reading of .62 currently is still rather far away from the traditional topping number of .8.

Which means that bitcoin likely hasn't topped yet, even a local top.

If we look at past bull markets when bitcoin had a reading of .62 and plot the percentage gains from the time the number went from .62 to .8 we have a range for what it might do this time around...

Those numbers are the 3000%, 800%, 600%, and 1200% numbers seen above in the chart btw.

If we use those same numbers this time around, we are looking at a range of $133k to $590k for the next top.

More important then the range in my opinion is the fact that the model is basically 6 for 6 in terms of predicting a top, though sometimes just local tops.

Every time bitcoin has gotten above the .75 range, there has been a significant pullback or bear market.

To me, this seems like a great indicator to be watching as we get into mid and late next year.

If we have several of these indicators all lining up, it can give us greater confidence that it may be time to ring the register.

We are long ways away from that time currently.

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc